How much pleasure do you get from your car?: Jing Xu and Norbert Schwarz have found that the quality of the car (as measured by Blue Book value) predicts the owners' answer to a general question about their enjoyment of the car, and also predicts people's pleasure during joyrides. But the quality of the car has no effect on people's mood during normal commutes. Norbert Schwarz, Daniel Kahneman, and Jing Xu, "Global and Episodic Reports of Hedonic Experience," in R. Belli, D. Alwin, and F. Stafford (eds.), Using Calendar and Diary Methods in Life Events Research (Newbury Park, CA: Sage), pp. 15774.

paraplegics spend in a bad mood?: The study is described in more detail in Kahneman, "Evaluation by Moments."

think about their situation: Camille Wortman and Roxane C. Silver, "Coping with Irrevocable Loss, Cataclysms, Crises, and Catastrophes: Psychology in Action," American Psychological Association, Master Lecture Series 6 (1987): 189235.

studies of colostomy patients: Dylan Smith et al., "Misremembering Colostomies? Former P

atients Give Lower Utility Ratings than Do Current Patients," Health Psychology 25 (2006): 68895. George Loewenstein and Peter A. Ubel, "Hedonic Adaptation and the Role of Decision and Experience Utility in Public Policy," Journal of Public Economics 92 (2008): 17951810.

the word miswanting: Daniel Gilbert and Timothy D. Wilson, "Miswanting: Some Problems in Affective Forecasting," in Feeling and Thinking: The Role of Affect in Social Cognition, ed. Joseph P. Forgas (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000), 17897.Conclusionstoo important to be ignored: Paul Dolan and Daniel Kahneman, "Interpretations of Utility and Their Implications for the Valuation of Health," Economic Journal 118 (2008): 215234. Loewenstein and Ubel, "Hedonic Adaptation and the Role of Decision and Experience Utility in Public Policy."

guide government policies: Progress has been especially rapid in the UK, where the use of measures of well-being is now official government policy. These advances were due in good part to the influence of Lord Richard Layard's book Happiness: Lessons from a New Science, first published in 2005. Layard is among the prominent economists and social scientists who have been drawn into the study of well-being and its implications. Other important sources are: Derek Bok, The Politics of Happiness: What Government Can Learn from the New Research on Well-Being (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2010). Ed Diener, Richard Lucus, Ulrich Schmimmack, and John F. Helliwell, Well-Being for Public Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009). Alan B. Krueger, ed., Measuring the Subjective Well-Being of Nations: National Account of Time Use and Well-Being (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2009). Joseph E. Stiglitz, Amartya Sen, and Jean-Paul Fitoussi, Report of the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress. Paul Dolan, Richard Layard, and Robert Metcalfe, Measuring Subjective Well-being for Public Policy: Recommendations on Measures (London: Office for National Statistics, 2011).

Irrational is a strong word: The view of the mind that Dan Ariely has presented in Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions (New York: Harper, 2008) is not much different from mine, but we differ in our use of the term.

accept future addiction: Gary S. Becker and Kevin M. Murphy, "A Theory of Rational Addiction," Journal of Political Economics 96 (1988): 675700. Nudge: Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2008).

can institute and enforce: Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (New York: Holt, 2009). Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Oliver Sibony, "The Big Idea: Before You Make That Big Decision..." Harvard Business Review 89 (2011): 5060.

distinctive vocabulary: Chip Heath, Richard P. Larrick, and Joshua Klayman, "Cognitive Repairs: How Organizational Practices Can Compensate for Individual Shortcomings," Research in Organizational Behavior 20 (1998): 137.

Index

The index that appeared in the print version of this title does not match the pages in your eBook. Please use the search function on your eReading device to search for terms of interest. For your reference, the terms that appear in the print index are listed below.

adaptation level

Add-1 taskadjustment; insufficientaffect heuristic; availability andaffective forecastingairplane crashesAjzen, IcekAlar scarealgorithms; Apgar scores; hostility to; multiple regressionAllais, Mauriceal-Qaedaambiguity, suppression ofAmerican Economic Reviewamygdalaanchoring indexanchors, anchoring; as adjustment; associative coherence in; associative memory and; measurement of; as priming effect; random, power of; in System 1 and System 2; uses and abuses ofanesthesiologistsangry facesanomaliesanterior cingulateApgar, VirginiaApgar scoresaphorismsAriely, DanArrow, Kennethart expertsartifacts, in researchAsch, SolomonAshenfelter, OrleyAsian disease problemassessments, basicassociations; activated ideas in; causality and; priming andassociative coherence; in anchoring; halo effect and; plausibility and, associative coherence (cont.); WYSIATI (what you see is all there is) andassociative memory; abnormal events and; anchoring and; causality and; confirmation bias and; creativity and; and estimates of causes of deathstebro, ThomasAtlantic, Theattention; in self-controlpaneight="0%" width="-5%">

Attention and Effort (Kahneman)

Auerbach, Redauthoritarian ideasavailability; affect and; and awareness of one's biases; expectations about; media and; psychology of; risk assessment and, see risk assessmentavailability cascadesavailability entrepreneurs

bad and good, distinctions betweenbanksbank teller problemBarber, BradBargh, Johnbaseballbaseball cardsbaseline predictionsbase rates; in cab driver problem; causal; in helping experiment; low; statistical; in Tom W problem; in Yale exam problembasic assessmentsbasketballbasketball ticketsbat-and-ball problemBaumeister, RoyBayes, ThomasBayesian statisticsBazerman, MaxBeane, BillyBeatty, JacksonBecker, Gary"Becoming Famous Overnight" (Jacoby)behavioral economicsBehavioral Insight Team"Belief in the Law of Small Numbers" (Tversky and Kahneman)beliefs: bias for; past, reconstruction ofBenartzi, ShlomoBentham, JeremyBerlin, IsaiahBernoulli, DanielBernouilli, NicholasBeyth, Ruthbicycle messengersBlack Swan, The (Taleb)blameBlink (Gladwell)Borg, BjornBorgida, Eugene"Boys Will Be Boys" (Barber and Odean)Bradlee, Benbrain; amygdala in; anterior cingulate in; buying and selling and; emotional framing and; frontal area of; pleasure and; prefrontal area of; punishment and; sugar in; threats and; and variations of probabilitiesBritish Toxicology Societybroad framingBrockman, Johnbroken-leg rulebudget forecastsBuilt to Last (Collins and Porras)Bush, George W.business and leadership practices; at Googlebusiness pundits

Cabanac, Michelcab driver problemcabdrivers, New York CityCaliforniansCamerer, Colincancer; surgery vs. radiation forCantril Self-Anchoring Striving ScaleCarroll, Lewiscars and driving; brakes in; driving tests; fuel economy and; pleasure fromcash boxcategoriescausal base ratescausal interpretations; correlation and; regression effects andcausal situationscausal stereotypescauses, and statisticsCEOs; optimisticcertainty effectCFOsChabris, Christopher

chance and randomness; misconceptions ofchanging one's mindChecklist Manifesto, A (Gawande)chesschildren: caring for; depressed; time spent withChinaChoice and Consequence (Schelling)choice architecturechoices: from description; from experience; see also decisions, decision making; risk assessment"Choices, Values, and Frames" (Kahneman and Tversky)CIAClark, AndrewclimateClinical vs. Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence (Meehl)Clinton, BillCoelho, Martacoffee mug experimentscognitive busynesscognitive ease; in basic assessments; and illusions of remembering; and illusions of truth; mood and; and writing persuasive messages; WYSIATI (what you see is all there is) andcognitive illusions; confusing experiences with memories; of pundits; of remembering; of skill; of stock-picking skill; of truth; of understanding; of validityCognitive Reflection Test (CRT)cognitive strainCohen, Davidcoherence; see also associative coherenceCohn, Beruriacoincidencecoin-on-the-machine experimentcold-hand experimentCollins, Jimcolonoscopiescolostomy patientscompetence, judging ofcompetition neglectcomplex vs. simple languageconcentrationcogndiv height="0%">

"Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: A Failure to Disagree" (Kahneman and Klein)confidence; bias of, over doubt; overconfidence; WYSIATI (what you see is all there is) andconfirmation biasconjunction fallacyconjunctive events, evaluation of"Consequences of Erudite Vernacular Utilized Irrespective of Necessity: Problems with Using Long Words Needlessly" (Oppenheimer)contiguity in time and placecontrolcookie experimentcorrelation; causation and; illusory; regression and; shared factors andcorrelation coefficientcost-benefit correlationcostscreativity; associative memory andcredibilityCsikszentmihalyi, Mihalycurriculum team

Damasio, Antoniodating questionDawes, RobynDay Reconstruction Method (DRM)death: causes of; life stories and; organ donation and; reminders ofDeaton, Angusdecisions, decision making; broad framing in; and choice from description; and choice from experience; emotions and vividness in; expectation principle in; in gambles, see gambles; global impressions and; hindsight bias and; narrow framing in; optimistic bias in; planning fallacy and; poverty and; premortem and; reference points in; regret and; risk and, see risk assessmentdecision utilitydecision weights; overweighting; unlikely events and; in utility theory vs. prospect theory; vivid outcomes and; vivid probabilities anddecorrelated errorsdefault optionsdenominator neglectdepressionDetroit/Michigan problemDiener, Ed

die roll problemdinnerware problemdisclosuresdisease threatsdisgustdisjunctive events, evaluation ofdisposition effectDNA evidencedolphinsDosi, Giovannidoubt; bias of confidence over; premortem and; suppression ofDuke UniversityDuluth, Minn., bridge induration neglectduration weighting

earthquakeseatingeBayEconometricaeconomics; behavioral; Chicago school of; neuroeconomics; preference reversals and; rational-agent model ineconomic transactions, fairness inEcons and HumansEdgeEdgeworth, Franciseducationeffectiveness of search setseffort; least, law of; in self-controlego depletionelectricityelectric shocksemotional coherence, see halo effect emotional learningemotions and mood: activities and; affect heuristic; availability biases and; in basic assessments; cognitive ease and; in decision making; in framing; mood heuristic for happiness; negative, measuring; and outcomes produced by action vs. inaction; paraplegics and; perception of; substitution of question on; in vivid outcomes; in vivid probabilities; weather and; work andemployers, fairness rules andendangered speciesendowment effect; and thinking like a traderenergy, mentalengagementEnquiry Concerning Human Understanding, An (Hume)entrepreneurs; competition neglect byEpley, NickEpstein, Seymourequal-weighting schemesErev, Idoevaluability hypothesisevaluations: joint; joint vs. single; singleevidence: one-sided; of witnessesexecutive controlexpectation principleexpectationsexpected utility theory, see utility theoryexperienced utilityexperience samplingexperiencing self; well-being of; see also well-beingexpert intuition; evaluating; illusions of validity of; overconfidence and; as recognition; risk assessment and; vs. statistical predictions; trust inexpertise, see skillExpert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Tetlock)Exxon Valdez oil spilleyes, pupil dilation in

face readingfairnessfallacies; conjunction; narrative; planning; sunk-costfamiliarityFar Side, The (Larson)fast and frugal heuristicfast thinkingfatiguefearFechner, GustavfeedbackFeller, Williamfinancial crisis of 2008fi

nancial advisers and forecasters

firefightersfirst impressionsFischhoff, Baruchflight instructorsflood monitorFlorida effectflowflowers syllogismFlyvbjerg, Bentfocusfocusing illusionfontsforecasts, see predictions and forecastsfootball gameFord Motor Companyformulas; algorithms; Apgar scores; hostility to; for interviews; multiple regressionformulation effectsFortunefourfold pattern; in legal casesFox, CraigFox, Seymourframes, framing; in Asian disease problem; in child exemption problem; in disclosures; emotional; fuel economy and; good; in KEEP-LOSE study; organ donation and; regulations on; in survival-mortality experiment; in ticket problemFrederick, ShaneFreedman, DavidfreedomFree to Choose (Friedman)frequency representationFrey, BrunoFriedman, Miltonfrowning; availability heuristic and; representativeness and

gainsGalinsky, AdamGallup-Healthways Well-Being IndexGalton, Francisgambles; bundling of; certainty effect and; emotional framing in; loss aversion in; lottery; mixed; and outcomes produced by action vs. inaction; possibility effect and; psychological value of; regret and; simple; St. Petersburg paradox and; vs. sure things; utility ongsv> see also risk assessmentGates FoundationGawande, AtulGeorgellis, YannisGerman Socio-Economic PanelgesturesGibbs, LoisGigerenzer, GerdGilbert, DanielGilovich, TomGladwell, Malcolmglobal warmingglucosegoalsgolfgood and bad, distinctions betweenGooglegorilla experimentgossipGottman, JohnGould, Stephen Jaygrades and grade point averages (GPAs)grading students' essaysGrether, Davidgroup, joiningGuthrie, Chris

Haidt, Jonathanhalo effectHalo Effect, The (Rosenzweig)happiness; of Californians; dating question and; income and; life stories and; marriage and; mood heuristic for; see also well-being happy faceshappy wordsHarding, Warren G.Harvard Medical SchoolHarvard Universityhealth: disease threats and; well-being and; risks and; see also medicinehealth survey problemhealth violation penaltiesHebrew University of Jerusalem"Hedgehog and the Fox, The" (Berlin)

hedonimeterHeider, Fritzhelping experimentHertwig, RalphHess, Eckhardheuristic, definition ofhigh school curriculum teamhindsight: bias in; regret andhistorical eventshitchhiker questionHitler, AdolfHogarth, Robinhonesty box"How Mental Systems Believe" (Gilbert)How to Solve It (Polya)Hsee, Christopherhubris hypothesisHumans and EconsHume, Davidhungerhypotheses, testing

ideomotor effectillusions: cognitive, see cognitive illusions; Muller-Lyer; 3-Dimaginability, immediate gratificationincongruityindependent judgmentsindifference mapinheritancesinjection puzzleIn Search of Excellence (Peters and Waterman)inside viewinsuranceintelligence; in marriage; pretentious language andintensity matchingintentioninterviews; in Israeli Defense ForcesIntroduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation (Bentham)intuition: acquisiitiodution of; common use of word; of experts, see expert intuition; predictive, see predictions and forecasts; as recognition; Simon's definition ofInventor's Assistance Programinvestments: stock portfolios; sunk-cost fallacy andInvisible Gorilla, The (Chabris and Simons)irrationalityIsrael, bombings inIsraeli Defense Forces: flight instructors in; interviews in; leaderless group challenge inIsraeli Ministry of Education

"Jabberwocky" (Carroll)Jacoby, LarryJencks, Christopherjoint evaluations; single evaluations vs.judgment heuristicsJudgment in Managerial Decision Making (Bazerman)judgments; basic assessments in; of experts, see expert intuition; intensity matching in; mental shotgun in; predictive, see predictions and forecasts; sets and prototypes in; summary, of complex information; see also decisions, decision making"Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases" (Tversky and Kahneman)Julie problemjumping to conclusions; bias for belief and confirmation in; halo effect in, see halo effect; suppression of ambiguity and doubt in; WYSIATI in, see what you see is all there is

Kaye, Dannykeeping score; mental accounts and; regret and; responsibility andKEEP-LOSE studykidney cancerKilling Ground, Thekitchen renovationsKlein, GaryKnetsch, Jackknow, use of wordknowledge; reconstruction of past states ofkourosKrueger, Alan

Kunreuther, HowardKuran, Timur

labor negotiationsLady Macbeth effectlanguage, complex vs. simpleLarrick, RichardLarson, Garylaw, see legal cases law of large numberslaw of small numbers; and bias of confidence over doubtlaziness of System 2Layard, Richardleaderless group challengeleadership and business practices; at GoogleLeBoeuf, Robynlegal cases: civil, damages in; DNA evidence in; fourfold pattern and; frivolous; loss aversion in; malpractice; outcome bias inleisure timeless-is-more patternLewis, Michaellibertarian policiesLichtenstein, Sarahlife: evaluation of; stories in; satisfaction in; thinking aboutLinda problemList, Johnloanslogarithmic functionsloss aversion; in animals; enhanced; goals as reference points in; in legal decisions; status quo andloss aversion ratiolosseslotteriesLovallo, DanLove Canallucklying

Malkiel, BurtonMalmendier, Ulrikemalpractice litigationMao Zedongmarch of historyuote>

Markowitz, Harrymarriage; life satisfaction andMathematical Psychology (Dawes, Tversky, and Coombs)matter, relation of mind toMcFarland, Cathymedia, availability heuristic andmedical school admissionsmedical survey problemmedicine; expertise in; malpractice litigation; overconfidence in; physicians; unique cases in; unusual treatments inMednick, SarnoffMeehl, Paulmeetingsmemory, memories; associative, see associative memory; availability heuristic and, see availability; duration neglect in; experienced utility and; illusions of; and the remembering self; of vacationsmental accountsmental effort, see effort mental energymental shotgunmere exposure effectmessages, persuasivemetaphorsMichigan/Detroit problemMichigan State UniversityMichotte, AlbertMiller, Dalemind, relation of matter toMischel, WaltermiswantingMITmoney and wealth: cultural differences in attitudes toward; happiness and; income vs. leisure; mental accounts and; poverty; priming and; utility ofMoneyball (Lewis)mood, see emotions and mood Morgenstern, OskarMoses illusionmotivationmovies"MPG Illusion, The" (Larrick and Soll)mug experiments

Mullainathan, SendhilMuller-Lyer illusionmultiple regressionMussweiler, Thomasmutual funds

names: complicated; of famous peoplenarrative fallacynarrow framing; disposition effectNaturalistic Decision Making (NDM)negativity dominancenegotiationsneuroeconomicsNew York Times, TheNew York University9/11Nisbett, RichardNixon, RichardNobel Prizenormsnorm theorynoveltyNudge (Thaler and Sunstein)nutrition

Oakland A'sObama, BarackobesityOdean, TerryOffice of Information and Regulatory Affairsone-sided evidenceOppenheimer, Dannyoptimal experienceoptimism; in CEOs; resilience andoptimistic bias; competition neglect; in entrepreneurs; overconfidence; planning fallacy; premortem and; risk taking andOregon Research Instituteorgan donationorganizationsoutcome biasoutside view

ou>

pain; chronic; cold-hand experiment and; colonoscopies and; duration neglect and; injection puzzle and; memory of; operation experiment and; peak-end rule and; in ratsparaplegicsparolepast: and confusing experiences with memories; hindsight bias and; regret andpastnesspattern seekingPavlov, Ivanpeak-end rulepersuasive messagesphysicians; malpractice litigation andpiano playing and weight, measuringplane crashesplanning fallacy; mitigatingplausibilitypleasure; in ratsPlott, Charlespoignancypolitical expertspolitical preferencePolya, GeorgePope, DevinPorras, Jerry I.positive test strategypossibility effect: gambles and; threats andpost-traumatic stresspovertyprecautionary principlepredictability, insensitivity topredictions and forecasts; baseline; clinical vs. statistical; disciplining; of experts, see expert intuition; extreme, value of; formulas for, see formulas; increasing accuracy in; low-validity environments and; nonregressive; objections to moderating; optimistic bias in; outside view in; overconfidence in; planning fallacy and; short-term trends and; valid, illusion of; see also probabilitypreference reversals; unjustpremonition, use of wordpremortempretentiousness languagepricing policiespriming; anchoring ast="-5%">Princeton Universityprobability; base rates in, see base rates; decision weights and, see decision weights; definitions of; and disciplining intuition; less-is-more pattern and; Linda problem and; overestimation of; plausibility and; and predicting by representativeness; prior, insensitivity to; professional stereotypes and; of rare events, see rare events; representativeness and, see representativeness; similarity and; subjective; as sum-like variable; see also predictions and forecastsprobability neglectProceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesprofessional stereotypesprofessorial candidatesprospect theory; in Albert and Ben problem; blind spots of; cumulative; decision weights and probabilities in; fourfold pattern in; frames and; graph of losses and gains in; loss aversion in; reference points in"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk" (Kahneman and Tversky)prototypespsychiatric patientspsychological immune systempsychology, teachingpsychopathic charmpsychophysicspsychotherapistspundits; see also expert intuition punishments: altruistic; rewards and; self-administeredpupil dilation

questionnaire and gift experimentsquestions; substitution of, see substitution

Rabin, Matthewradiologistsrafters, skilledrail projectsrandomness and chance; misconceptions of Random Walk Down Wall Street, A (Malkiel)rare events; overestimation of; regret andrational-agent modelrationalityRationality and the Reflective Mind (Stanovich)">ratsReagan, Ronaldreciprocal primingrecognitionrecognition-primed decision (RPD) modelRedelmeier, Donreference class forecastingregression to the mean; causal interpretations and; correlation and; difficulty in grasping; two-systems view of"Regression towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature" (Galton)regretreligionremembering selfRemote Association Test (RAT)reorganizations in companiesrepetitionrepresentativeness; base rates and; see also base rates; in Linda problem; predicting by; professional stereotypes and; sins of; in Tom W problemresearch: artifacts in; hypothesis testing in; optimism inresemblance; in predictionsresilienceresponsibilityretrievability of instancesreversals; unjustrewards; self-administeredRice, Condoleezzarisk assessment; aggregation and; broad framing in; decision weights in, see decision weights; denominator neglect and; by experts; and format of risk expression; fourfold pattern in; for health risks; hindsight bias and; laws and regulations governing; loss aversion in; narrow framing in; optimistic bias and; policies for; possibility effect and; precautionary principle and; probability neglect and; public policies and; small risks and; of technologies; terrorism and; see also gamblesrisk aversionrisk seeking"Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision Making, The" (Dawes)Rosett, RichardRosenzweig, PhilipRoyal Dutch ShellRoyal InstitutionRozin, Paul< PhilipRumsfeld, DonaldRussell Sage FoundationRussia

Saddam Husseinsadnesssafety; health risks and; health violation penalties and; precautionary principle andsamples, sampling: accidents of; and bias of confidence over doubt; law of large numbers; law of small numbers; size of; small, exaggerated faith inSamuelson, PaulSan Francisco ExploratoriumSavage, JimmieSave More TomorrowSchelling, ThomasSchkade, Davidschool sizeSchwarz, NorbertSchweitzer, MauriceScienceScientific Americanscientific controversiesscientific research: artifacts in; hypothesis testing in; optimism inScottish Parliamentself-controlself-criticismSeligman, Martinselves; experiencing; rememberingsetsShafir, Eldarsimilarity judgmentsSimmel, Mary-AnnSimon, HerbertSimons, DanielSimpson, O. J.single evaluations; joint evaluations vs.ski jump eventskills; acquisition of; environment of; feedback and practice in; illusions of; in stock-pickingSlovic, PaulSlovic, Rozslow thinking