Thinking Fast And Slow - Thinking Fast and Slow Part 42
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Thinking Fast and Slow Part 42

brand names over generics: Itamar Simonson, "The Influence of Anticipating Regret and Responsibility on Purchase Decisions," Journal of Consumer Research 19 (1992): 10518.

clean up their portfolios: Lilian Ng and Qinghai Wang, "Institutional Trading and the Turn-of-the-Year Effect," Journal of Financial Economics 74 (2004): 34366.

loss averse for aspects of your life: Tversky and Kahneman, "Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice." Eric J. Johnson, Simon Gachter, and Andreas Herrmann, "Exploring the Nature of Loss Aversion," Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, University of Nottingham, Discussion Paper Series, 2006. Edward J. McCaffery, Daniel Kahneman, and Matthew L. Spitzer, "Framing the Jury: Cognitive Perspectives on Pain and Suffering," Virginia Law Review 81 (1995): 1341420.

classic on consumer behavior: Richard H. Thaler, "Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice," Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 39 (1980): 3690.

taboo tradeoff: Philip E. Tetlock et al., "The Psychology of the Unthinkable: Taboo Trade-Offs, Forbidden Base Rates, and Heretical Counterfactuals," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 78 (2000): 85370.

where the precautionary principle: Cass R. Sunstein, The Laws of Fear: Beyond the Precautionary Principle (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005).

"psychological immune system": Daniel T. Gilbert et al., "Looking Forward to Looking Backward: The Misprediction of Regret," Psychological Science 15 (2004): 34650.33: Reversalsin the man's regular store: Dale T. Miller and Cathy McFarland, "Counterfactual Thinking and Victim Compensation: A Test of Norm Theory," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 12 (1986): 51319.

reversals of judgment and choice: The first step toward the current interpretation was taken by Max H. Bazerman, George F. Loewenstein, and Sally B. White, "Reversals of Preference in Allocation Decisions: Judging Alternatives Versus Judging Among Alternatives," Administrative Science Quarterly 37 (1992): 22040. Christopher Hsee introduced the terminology of joint and separate evaluation, and formulated the important evaluability hypothesis, which explains reversals by the idea that some attributes {e a#822become evaluable only in joint evaluation: "Attribute Evaluability: Its Implications for Joint-Separate Evaluation Reversals and Beyond," in Kahneman and Tversky, Choices, Values, and Frames.

conversation between psychologists and economists: Sarah Lichtenstein and Paul Slovic, "Reversals of Preference Between Bids and Choices in Gambling Decisions," Journal of Experimental Psychology 89 (1971): 4655. A similar result was obtained independently by Harold R. Lindman, "Inconsistent Preferences Among Gambles," Journal of Experimental Psychology 89 (1971): 39097.

bewildered participant: For a transcript of the famous interview, see Sarah Lichtenstein and Paul Slovic, eds., The Construction of Preference (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006).

the prestigious American Economic Review: David M. Grether and Charles R. Plott, "Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversals Phenomenon," American Economic Review 69 (1979): 62328.

"context in which the choices are made": Lichtenstein and Slovic, The Construction of Preference, 96.

one embarrassing finding: Kuhn famously argued that the same is true of physical sciences as well: Thomas S. Kuhn, "The Function of Measurement in Modern Physical Science," Isis 52 (1961): 16193.

liking of dolphins: There is evidence that questions about the emotional appeal of species and the willingness to contribute to their protection yield the same rankings: Daniel Kahneman and Ilana Ritov, "Determinants of Stated Willingness to Pay for Public Goods: A Study in the Headline Method," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 9 (1994): 538.

superior on this attribute: Hsee, "Attribute Evaluability."

"requisite record-keeping": Cass R. Sunstein, Daniel Kahneman, David Schkade, and Ilana Ritov, "Predictably Incoherent Judgments," Stanford Law Review 54 (2002): 1190.34: Frames and Realityunjustified influences of formulation: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, "The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice," Science 211 (1981): 45358.

paid with cash or on credit: Thaler, "Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice."

10% mortality is frightening: Barbara McNeil, Stephen G. Pauker, Harold C. Sox Jr., and Amos Tversky, "On the Elicitation of Preferences for Alternative Therapies," New England Journal of Medicine 306 (1982): 125962.

"Asian disease problem": Some people have commented that the "Asian" label is unnecessary and pejorative. We probably would not use it today, but the example was written in the 1970s, when sensitivity to group labels was less developed than it is today. The word was added to make the example more concrete by reminding respondents of the Asian flu epidem {an s less ic of 1957.

Choice and Consequence: Thomas Schelling, Choice and Consequence (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1985).

misleading frame: Richard P. Larrick and Jack B. Soll, "The MPG Illusion," Science 320 (2008): 159394.

rate of organ donation in European countries: Eric J. Johnson and Daniel Goldstein, "Do Defaults Save Lives?" Science 302 (2003): 133839.35: Two Selves"wantability": Irving Fisher, "Is 'Utility' the Most Suitable Term for the Concept It Is Used to Denote?" American Economic Review 8 (1918): 335.

at any moment: Francis Edgeworth, Mathematical Psychics (New York: Kelley, 1881).

under which his theory holds: Daniel Kahneman, Peter P. Wakker, and Rakesh Sarin, "Back to Bentham? Explorations of Experienced Utility," Quarterly Journal of Economics 112 (1997): 375405. Daniel Kahneman, "Experienced Utility and Objective Happiness: A Moment-Based Approach" and "Evaluation by Moments: Past and Future," in Kahneman and Tversky, Choices, Values, and Frames, 67392, 693708.

a physician and researcher: Donald A. Redelmeier and Daniel Kahneman, "Patients' Memories of Painful Medical Treatments: Real-time and Retrospective Evaluations of Two Minimally Invasive Procedures," Pain 66 (1996): 38.

free to choose: Daniel Kahneman, Barbara L. Frederickson, Charles A. Schreiber, and Donald A. Redelmeier, "When More Pain Is Preferred to Less: Adding a Better End," Psychological Science 4 (1993): 401405.

duration of the shock: Orval H. Mowrer and L. N. Solomon, "Contiguity vs. Drive-Reduction in Conditioned Fear: The Proximity and Abruptness of Drive Reduction," American Journal of Psychology 67 (1954): 1525.

burst of stimulation: Peter Shizgal, "On the Neural Computation of Utility: Implications from Studies of Brain Stimulation Reward," in Well-Being: The Foundations of Hedonic Psychology, ed. Daniel Kahneman, Edward Diener, and Norbert Schwarz (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1999), 50024.36: Life as a Storyhad a lover: Paul Rozin and Jennifer Stellar, "Posthumous Events Affect Rated Quality and Happiness of Lives," Judgment and Decision Making 4 (2009): 27379.

entire lives as well as brief episodes: Ed Diener, Derrick Wirtz, and Shigehiro Oishi, "End Effects of Rated Life Quality: The James Dean Effect," Psychological Science 12 (2001): 12428. The same series of experiments also tested for the peak-end rule in an unhappy life and found similar results: Jen was not judged twice as unhappy if she lived miserably for 60 years rather than 30, but { thk-e she was regarded as considerably happier if 5 mildly miserable years were added just before her death.37: Experienced Well-Beinglife as a whole these days: Another question that has been used frequently is, "Taken all together, how would you say things are these days? Would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?" This question is included in the General Social Survey in the United States, and its correlations with other variables suggest a mix of satisfaction and experienced happiness. A pure measure of life evaluation used in the Gallup surveys is the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale, in which the respondent rates his or her current life on a ladder scale in which 0 is "the worst possible life for you" and 10 is "the best possible life for you." The language suggests that people should anchor on what they consider possible for them, but the evidence shows that people all over the world have a common standard for what a good life is, which accounts for the extraordinarily high correlation (r = .84) between the GDP of countries and the average ladder score of their citizens. Angus Deaton, "Income, Health, and Well-Being Around the World: Evidence from the Gallup World Poll," Journal of Economic Perspectives 22 (2008): 5372.

"a dream team": The economist was Alan Krueger of Princeton, noted for his innovative analyses of unusual data. The psychologists were David Schkade, who had methodological expertise; Arthur Stone, an expert on health psychology, experience sampling, and ecological momentary assessment; Norbert Schwarz, a social psychologist who was also an expert on survey method and had contributed experimental critiques of well-being research, including the experiment on which a dime left on a copying machine influenced subsequent reports of life satisfaction.

intensity of various feelings: In some applications, the individual also provides physiological information, such as continuous recordings of heart rate, occasional records of blood pressure, or samples of saliva for chemical analysis. The method is called Ecological Momentary Assessment: Arthur A. Stone, Saul S. Shiffman, and Marten W. DeVries, "Ecological Momentary Assessment Well-Being: The Foundations of Hedonic Psychology," in Kahneman, Diener, and Schwarz, Well-Being, 2639.

spend their time: Daniel Kahneman et al., "A Survey Method for Characterizing Daily Life Experience: The Day Reconstruction Method," Science 306 (2004): 177680. Daniel Kahneman and Alan B. Krueger, "Developments in the Measurement of Subjective Well-Being," Journal of Economic Perspectives 20 (2006): 324.

physiological indications of emotion: Previous research had documented that people are able to "relive" feelings they had in a past situation when the situation is retrieved in sufficiently vivid detail. Michael D. Robinson and Gerald L. Clore, "Belief and Feeling: Evidence for an Accessibility Model of Emotional Self-Report," Psychological Bulletin 128 (2002): 93460.

state the U-index: Alan B. Krueger, ed., Measuring the Subjective Well-Being of Nations: National Accounts of Time Use and Well-Being (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2009).

distributio {i>dll-Being: Ed Diener, "Most People Are Happy," Psychological Science 7 (1996): 18185.

Gallup World Poll: For a number of years I have been one of several Senior Scientists associated with the efforts of the Gallup Organization in the domain of well-being.

more than 450,000 responses: Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton, "High Income Improves Evaluation of Life but Not Emotional Well-Being," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107 (2010): 1648993.

worse for the very poor: Dylan M. Smith, Kenneth M. Langa, Mohammed U. Kabeto, and Peter Ubel, "Health, Wealth, and Happiness: Financial Resources Buffer Subjective Well-Being After the Onset of a Disability," Psychological Science 16 (2005): 66366.

$75,000 in high-cost areas: In a TED talk I presented in February 2010 I mentioned a preliminary estimate of $60,000, which was later corrected.

eat a bar of chocolate!: Jordi Quoidbach, Elizabeth W. Dunn, K. V. Petrides, and Mora Mikolajczak, "Money Giveth, Money Taketh Away: The Dual Effect of Wealth on Happiness," Psychological Science 21 (2010): 75963.38: Thinking About LifeGerman Socio-Economic Panel: Andrew E. Clark, Ed Diener, and Yannis Georgellis, "Lags and Leads in Life Satisfaction: A Test of the Baseline Hypothesis." Paper presented at the German Socio-Economic Panel Conference, Berlin, Germany, 2001.

affective forecasting: Daniel T. Gilbert and Timothy D. Wilson, "Why the Brain Talks to Itself: Sources of Error in Emotional Prediction," Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 364 (2009): 133541.

only significant fact in their life: Strack, Martin, and Schwarz, "Priming and Communication."

questionnaire on life satisfaction: The original study was reported by Norbert Schwarz in his doctoral thesis (in German) "Mood as Information: On the Impact of Moods on the Evaluation of One's Life" (Heidelberg: Springer Verlag, 1987). It has been described in many places, notably Norbert Schwarz and Fritz Strack, "Reports of Subjective Well-Being: Judgmental Processes and Their Methodological Implications," in Kahneman, Diener, and Schwarz, Well-Being, 6184.

goals that young people set: The study was described in William G. Bowen and Derek Curtis Bok, The Shape of the River: Long-Term Consequences of Considering Race in College and University Admissions (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998). Some of Bowen and Bok's findings were reported by Carol Nickerson, Norbert Schwarz, and Ed Diener, "Financial Aspirations, Financial Success, and Overall Life Satisfaction: Who? and How?" Journal of Happiness Studies 8 (2007): 467515.

"being very well-off financially": Alexander Astin, M. R. King, and G. T. Richardson, "The American Freshman: National Norms for Fall 1976," Cooperative Institutional Research Program of the American C {he on, Rouncil on Education and the University of California at Los Angeles, Graduate School of Education, Laboratory for Research in Higher Education, 1976.

money was not important: These results were presented in a talk at the American Economic Association annual meeting in 2004. Daniel Kahneman, "Puzzles of Well-Being," paper presented at the meeting.

happiness of Californians: The question of how well people today can forecast the feelings of their descendants a hundred years from now is clearly relevant to the policy response to climate change, but it can be studied only indirectly, which is what we proposed to do.

aspects of their lives: In posing the question, I was guilty of a confusion that I now try to avoid: Happiness and life satisfaction are not synonymous. Life satisfaction refers to your thoughts and feelings when you think about your life, which happens occasionally-including in surveys of well-being. Happiness describes the feelings people have as they live their normal life.

I had won the family argument: However, my wife has never conceded. She claims that only residents of Northern California are happier.

students in California and in the Midwest: Asian students generally reported lower satisfaction with their lives, and Asian students made up a much larger proportion of the samples in California than in the Midwest. Allowing for this difference, life satisfaction in the two regions was identical.