35. Sun of the Twenty-First Century.

1. Yonhap news agency report carried in Seoul's Yonhap news agency report carried in Seoul's JoongAng Ilbo, JoongAng Ilbo, December 29, 1999. December 29, 1999.

2. For more on the issue of economic sanctions see Selig S. Harrison, For more on the issue of economic sanctions see Selig S. Harrison, Korean Endgame: A Strategy for Reunification and U.S. Disengagement Korean Endgame: A Strategy for Reunification and U.S. Disengagement (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2002), especially pp. 8889; Marcus Noland, (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2002), especially pp. 8889; Marcus Noland, Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas (Washington, D.C: Inst.i.tute for International Economics, 2000), especially pp. 107110; Michael O'Hanlon & Mike Mochizuki, (Washington, D.C: Inst.i.tute for International Economics, 2000), especially pp. 107110; Michael O'Hanlon & Mike Mochizuki, Crisis on the Korean Peninsula: How to Deal With a Nuclear North Korea Crisis on the Korean Peninsula: How to Deal With a Nuclear North Korea (Washington: Brookings Inst.i.tution, 2003), especially pp. 8689; Victor D. Cha and David C. Kang, (Washington: Brookings Inst.i.tution, 2003), especially pp. 8689; Victor D. Cha and David C. Kang, Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies (New York: Columbia University Press, 2003), especially pp. 9092. (New York: Columbia University Press, 2003), especially pp. 9092.

3. "Despair, Detente and Dollars," "Despair, Detente and Dollars," Inst.i.tutional Investor Inst.i.tutional Investor (international edition- Asia), July 2000: pp. (international edition- Asia), July 2000: pp. 6467. 6467.

4. "NK Purges 'Liberals,' " "NK Purges 'Liberals,' " Digital Chosunilbo, Digital Chosunilbo, September 29, 1998. September 29, 1998.

5. An unofficial translation of the 1998 const.i.tution appears on the Web site of the Chongryon's Tokyo-based English-language newspaper An unofficial translation of the 1998 const.i.tution appears on the Web site of the Chongryon's Tokyo-based English-language newspaper The People's Korea The People's Korea at http://www.korea-np.co.jp/pk/061st_issue/98091708.htm. at http://www.korea-np.co.jp/pk/061st_issue/98091708.htm.

6. The transcript first appeared in Korean in The transcript first appeared in Korean in Wolgan Choson, Wolgan Choson, which cited a j.a.panese intelligence agency concerned with North Korean matters as its source. It is translated into English on which cited a j.a.panese intelligence agency concerned with North Korean matters as its source. It is translated into English on Korea Web Weekly Korea Web Weekly at http://www.kimsoft.com/2003/ kji-tape.htm. at http://www.kimsoft.com/2003/ kji-tape.htm.

7. JoongAng Ilbo, JoongAng Ilbo, December 29. 1999. December 29. 1999.

8. "Ex-Dictator's Daughter Receives Warm Welcome in North Korea," Agence France-Presse dispatch, May 12, 2002. "Ex-Dictator's Daughter Receives Warm Welcome in North Korea," Agence France-Presse dispatch, May 12, 2002.

9. "Kim Jong Il is presiding over a process that might be called reform by stealth. He is tacitly encouraging change in the domestic economy without incurring the political costs of confronting the Old Guard in a formal doctrinal debate" (Harrison, "Kim Jong Il is presiding over a process that might be called reform by stealth. He is tacitly encouraging change in the domestic economy without incurring the political costs of confronting the Old Guard in a formal doctrinal debate" (Harrison, Korean Endgame, Korean Endgame, p. 26). p. 26).

10. Catherine Sung, "Kim Jong-il shows he has a lighter side," Catherine Sung, "Kim Jong-il shows he has a lighter side," Taipei Times, Taipei Times, June 15, 2000. Internet: http://taipeitimes.com/news/2000/06/15/print/0000040078. June 15, 2000. Internet: http://taipeitimes.com/news/2000/06/15/print/0000040078.

11. Hw.a.n.g Won-duk, "What we have achieved at the North-South Summit and the follow-up tasks," speech to Korean Veterans' a.s.sociation conference, June 30, 2000, reprinted in Korean by Hw.a.n.g Won-duk, "What we have achieved at the North-South Summit and the follow-up tasks," speech to Korean Veterans' a.s.sociation conference, June 30, 2000, reprinted in Korean by Wolgan Choson Wolgan Choson and translated on and translated on Korea Web Weekly Korea Web Weekly at http://www.kimsoft.com/2000/summitsk.htm. at http://www.kimsoft.com/2000/summitsk.htm.

12. A translation of the North-South Joint Declaration is on the Web site of A translation of the North-South Joint Declaration is on the Web site of The People's Korea The People's Korea at http://www.korea-np.co.jp/pk/142th_issue/2000061501.htm. at http://www.korea-np.co.jp/pk/142th_issue/2000061501.htm.

13. Laxmi Nakarmi, "Kim Jong Il's New Direction," Laxmi Nakarmi, "Kim Jong Il's New Direction," Asiaweek, Asiaweek, September 15, 2000. Hw.a.n.g Won-duk speech. September 15, 2000. Hw.a.n.g Won-duk speech.

14. Time Asia, Time Asia, December 25, 2000Jan. 1, 2001. December 25, 2000Jan. 1, 2001.

15. Ruediger Frank, "North Korea: 'Gigantic Change' and a Gigantic Chance," The Nautilus Inst.i.tute for Security and Sustainable Development, Policy Forum Online, May 9, 2003, http://nautilus.org/fora/security/0331_Frank.html. Ruediger Frank, "North Korea: 'Gigantic Change' and a Gigantic Chance," The Nautilus Inst.i.tute for Security and Sustainable Development, Policy Forum Online, May 9, 2003, http://nautilus.org/fora/security/0331_Frank.html.

16. Zhang Xinghua, "Kim Jong-il Visits Shanghai Secretly," Zhang Xinghua, "Kim Jong-il Visits Shanghai Secretly," Global Times, Global Times, January 23, 2001, p. 2. January 23, 2001, p. 2.

17. "Kim Jong-il Studies the Chinese Model," "Kim Jong-il Studies the Chinese Model," Izvestia, Izvestia, January 19, 2001, p. 6; Ruriko Kubota, "Kim Jong-il Aims to Build Shanghai-like High-Tech City," January 19, 2001, p. 6; Ruriko Kubota, "Kim Jong-il Aims to Build Shanghai-like High-Tech City," Sankei Shimbun, Sankei Shimbun, February 2, 2001. February 2, 2001.

18. Zhang, "Kim Jong-il Visits Shanghai Secretly." Zhang, "Kim Jong-il Visits Shanghai Secretly."

19. Kubota, "Kim Jong-il Aims." Kubota, "Kim Jong-il Aims."

20. See, for example, "Kim Jong Il Has Inadvertently Thrown Down the Gauntlet," See, for example, "Kim Jong Il Has Inadvertently Thrown Down the Gauntlet," Keys Keys (Seoul: Network for North Korean Democracy and Human Rights). Internet: http://www.nknet.org/en/keys/lastkeys/2002/10/01.php. (Seoul: Network for North Korean Democracy and Human Rights). Internet: http://www.nknet.org/en/keys/lastkeys/2002/10/01.php.

21. Sin Sok-ho, "Three .Months After North Korea's Economic Reform: Street Vendors All Over Pyongyang-'Let us Sell More and Earn More,'" trans. FBIS, Sin Sok-ho, "Three .Months After North Korea's Economic Reform: Street Vendors All Over Pyongyang-'Let us Sell More and Earn More,'" trans. FBIS, Dong-A Ilbo, Dong-A Ilbo, October 8, 2002. October 8, 2002.

22. "U.S. Opposes N.Korea's Attendance at ADB," "U.S. Opposes N.Korea's Attendance at ADB," Korea Herald, Korea Herald, April 18, 2002. April 18, 2002.

23. Yoo Choonsik, "Top Hyundai Executive Kills Self" Yoo Choonsik, "Top Hyundai Executive Kills Self" Bangkok Post Bangkok Post (Seoul-datelined Reuter dispatch), August 5, 2003; Vijay Joshi, "Six S. Koreans Convicted in Summit Probe," AP dispatch from Seoul, September 26, 2003; Kwon Kyung-bok, "North Condemns Cash-Summit Convictions," (Seoul-datelined Reuter dispatch), August 5, 2003; Vijay Joshi, "Six S. Koreans Convicted in Summit Probe," AP dispatch from Seoul, September 26, 2003; Kwon Kyung-bok, "North Condemns Cash-Summit Convictions," Chosun Ilbo, Chosun Ilbo, September 28, 2003. September 28, 2003.

36. Fear and Loathing.

1. The remarks of Prof. Kim Jae-soo appeared in an interview published in the New Year's 2000 issue The remarks of Prof. Kim Jae-soo appeared in an interview published in the New Year's 2000 issue of Choson Shimpo, of Choson Shimpo, the Korean-language paper of the pro-Pyongyang General a.s.sociation of Koreans in j.a.pan (Chongryon), and were quoted in the January 11 issue of Seoul's the Korean-language paper of the pro-Pyongyang General a.s.sociation of Koreans in j.a.pan (Chongryon), and were quoted in the January 11 issue of Seoul's JoongAng Ilbo. JoongAng Ilbo.

2. Madeleine Albright, with Bill Woodward, Madeleine Albright, with Bill Woodward, Madame Secretary: A Memoir Madame Secretary: A Memoir (New York: Miramax Books, 2003), pp. (New York: Miramax Books, 2003), pp. 45 455472.

3. James A. Kelly, "Ensuring a Korean Peninsula Free of Nuclear Weapons," transcript of remarks given at research conference organized by Korea Inst.i.tute for International Economic Policy, Korea Economic Inst.i.tute and American Enterprise Inst.i.tute, Washington, D.C., February 13, 2004, on line at http://www. nautilus.org/DPRKBriefingBook/multilateralTalks/Kelly_ NKChanceforRedemption. html. James A. Kelly, "Ensuring a Korean Peninsula Free of Nuclear Weapons," transcript of remarks given at research conference organized by Korea Inst.i.tute for International Economic Policy, Korea Economic Inst.i.tute and American Enterprise Inst.i.tute, Washington, D.C., February 13, 2004, on line at http://www. nautilus.org/DPRKBriefingBook/multilateralTalks/Kelly_ NKChanceforRedemption. html.

4. Jung Chul-geun and Ko Soo-suk, "Thinking Big, But Not Too Big," Jung Chul-geun and Ko Soo-suk, "Thinking Big, But Not Too Big," JoongAng Ilbo JoongAng Ilbo (Englsh Internet edition), November 10, 2002. (Englsh Internet edition), November 10, 2002.

5. Kim Ho-song, "Wise Leadership for Improving Socialist Economic Management," Kim Ho-song, "Wise Leadership for Improving Socialist Economic Management," Nodong Shinmun, Nodong Shinmun, February 1, 2003 (FBIS translation). February 1, 2003 (FBIS translation).

6. Frank, "North Korea: 'Gigantic Change' and a Gigantic Chance" (see chap. 35, n. 15). Frank, "North Korea: 'Gigantic Change' and a Gigantic Chance" (see chap. 35, n. 15).

7. Testimony of Stephen W. Linton, Ph.D., Chairman, Eugene Bell Foundation, before the Senate Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, June 5, 2003. Testimony of Stephen W. Linton, Ph.D., Chairman, Eugene Bell Foundation, before the Senate Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, June 5, 2003.

Linton said that, thanks to humanitarian aid programs, "North Koreans are far more relaxed in their dealings with foreigners today than they were only several years ago. Clearly, fear of people-to-people contacts is not the primary reason North Korea has not wholeheartedly embraced economic reforms." Instead, he concluded, the problem was that "North Korea's leadership has never believed in a world governed by fair play. Instead they believe that nature as well as history has created a world of natural haves' and have nots.' In this view, because the world's natural resources are unequally distributed in favor of larger nations, smaller nations have to rely on diplomacy and influence (pressure) to acquire what they need. Not surprisingly, all their energies are exerted in acquiring the leverage needed to force foreign powers to take them seriously." Linton implied that the North could not truly reform until U.S. and other sanctions were removed. "In the North Korean way of thinking, sanctions 'prove' that the economic playing field will never be level enough to permit their products to compete in the international arena," he wrote. "When seen from this perspective, North Korea's international and domestic policies are relatively easy to understand."

8. Alexander Boronchov (name as transliterated), "Pyongyang Residents Carry Cellular Phones," trans. FBIS Alexander Boronchov (name as transliterated), "Pyongyang Residents Carry Cellular Phones," trans. FBIS Dong-A Ilbo Dong-A Ilbo (Internet version), July 17, 2003. (Internet version), July 17, 2003.

9. Kathi Zellweger, "Caritas and the North Korean Crisis: Concern for People in Need" (paper prepared for address to Evening Forum of the Korea Society in New York), October 19, 2003. Kathi Zellweger, "Caritas and the North Korean Crisis: Concern for People in Need" (paper prepared for address to Evening Forum of the Korea Society in New York), October 19, 2003.

10. "North Korea May Have Devalued Its Currency," Reuters dispatch from Tokyo, October 5, 2003, quoting a report by "North Korea May Have Devalued Its Currency," Reuters dispatch from Tokyo, October 5, 2003, quoting a report by Asahi Shimbun. Asahi Shimbun.

11. Ser Myo-ja, "North Issues Tax, Labor Codes for Gaesong," Ser Myo-ja, "North Issues Tax, Labor Codes for Gaesong," JoongAng Ilbo, JoongAng Ilbo, October 1, 2003. October 1, 2003.

12. See Don Kirk, "86% Rise in Profit For Hyundai In Quarter," See Don Kirk, "86% Rise in Profit For Hyundai In Quarter," The New York Times, The New York Times, August 12, 2003, p. W1, and Kim So-Young, "Hyundai Feud May Stall N.K Projects," August 12, 2003, p. W1, and Kim So-Young, "Hyundai Feud May Stall N.K Projects," Korea Herald, Korea Herald, November 21, 2003. November 21, 2003.

13. Hans Greimel, "N. Korea Unveils Industrial Zone Rules," AP dispatch from Seoul, December 18, 2003. Hans Greimel, "N. Korea Unveils Industrial Zone Rules," AP dispatch from Seoul, December 18, 2003.

14. Jeong Yong-soo, "Unification Minister Says Reform Afoot," Jeong Yong-soo, "Unification Minister Says Reform Afoot," JoongAng Ilbo, JoongAng Ilbo, October 1, 2003. October 1, 2003.

15. "North Korea Wants Foreign Lawyers, Accountants," Reuters dispatch from Beijing, October 28, 2003. "North Korea Wants Foreign Lawyers, Accountants," Reuters dispatch from Beijing, October 28, 2003.

16. "Ko Soo-suk, "North Expects Gains in Bank .Mergers," "Ko Soo-suk, "North Expects Gains in Bank .Mergers," JoongAng Ilbo, JoongAng Ilbo, November 11, 2003. November 11, 2003.

17. Andrew Ward, "European Investors Move into N Korea," Andrew Ward, "European Investors Move into N Korea," Financial Times, Financial Times, November 21, 2003, p. 5. November 21, 2003, p. 5.

18. Hans Greimel, "EU Makes Economic Overture," AP dispatch from Seoul, January 13, 2004. Hans Greimel, "EU Makes Economic Overture," AP dispatch from Seoul, January 13, 2004.

19. "ROK Official Says North Sees Tangible Accomplishments in IT Industry," Yonhap, January 8, 2004. "ROK Official Says North Sees Tangible Accomplishments in IT Industry," Yonhap, January 8, 2004.

20. Peter Hayes, "Enemy to Friend: Providing Security a.s.surances to North Korea," Peter Hayes, "Enemy to Friend: Providing Security a.s.surances to North Korea," The DPRK Briefing Book, The DPRK Briefing Book, Nautilus Inst.i.tute, February 9, 2004, http://www. nautilus.org/DPRKBriefingBook/multilateralTalks/PHEnemytoFriend.html. Nautilus Inst.i.tute, February 9, 2004, http://www. nautilus.org/DPRKBriefingBook/multilateralTalks/PHEnemytoFriend.html.

21. Richard Halloran, "New Warplan Calls for Invasion of North Korea," Richard Halloran, "New Warplan Calls for Invasion of North Korea," Global Beat Global Beat (Internet), November 14, 1998. (Internet), November 14, 1998.

22. Richard Halloran, "Plan targets Pyongyang's 'commandos, " Richard Halloran, "Plan targets Pyongyang's 'commandos, " The Washington Times, The Washington Times, February 25, 2003. February 25, 2003.

23. Jeong Yong-soo, "Unification Minister says Reform Afoot." Jeong Yong-soo, "Unification Minister says Reform Afoot."

24. Ruediger Frank, "The End of Socialism and a Wedding Gift for the Groom? The True Meaning of the Military First Policy," Ruediger Frank, "The End of Socialism and a Wedding Gift for the Groom? The True Meaning of the Military First Policy," The DPRK Briefing Book, The DPRK Briefing Book, Nautilus Inst.i.tute, December 11, 2003, http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKBriefingBook/ transition/Ruediger_Socialism.html. For a contrary view describing the military-first policy as a barrier to economic recovery, see Aidan Foster-Carter's "North Korea: Guns or b.u.t.ter?" posted April 6, 2004, Northwest Asia Peace and Security Network, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0418_FosterCarter. html. Nautilus Inst.i.tute, December 11, 2003, http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKBriefingBook/ transition/Ruediger_Socialism.html. For a contrary view describing the military-first policy as a barrier to economic recovery, see Aidan Foster-Carter's "North Korea: Guns or b.u.t.ter?" posted April 6, 2004, Northwest Asia Peace and Security Network, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0418_FosterCarter. html.

25. George Wehrfritz, with B. J. Lee and Hideko Takayama, "The First Signs of Life: Will economic reforms in the Hermit Kingdom save Kim Jong Il's regime or hasten the fall?" February 2, 2004. George Wehrfritz, with B. J. Lee and Hideko Takayama, "The First Signs of Life: Will economic reforms in the Hermit Kingdom save Kim Jong Il's regime or hasten the fall?" February 2, 2004.

26. John W. Lewis, "Hope on N. Korea," John W. Lewis, "Hope on N. Korea," Washington Post Washington Post op-ed article, January 27, 2004. op-ed article, January 27, 2004.

27. Wehrfritz, Lee and Takayama, "The First Signs of Life." Like so much other fine material in the international editions, this extremely important article did not appear in the Wehrfritz, Lee and Takayama, "The First Signs of Life." Like so much other fine material in the international editions, this extremely important article did not appear in the Newsweek Newsweek edition circulated to U.S. readers. I am grateful to Hideko Takayama for sending a copy to me. edition circulated to U.S. readers. I am grateful to Hideko Takayama for sending a copy to me.

28. "North Korea is cutting the workforce of its government and ruling party by up to 30 percent in an effort to reduce bureaucracy and use the workers in more productive areas, a j.a.panese daily reported Tuesday. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, who is also chairman of the National Defense Commission, recently ordered the rea.s.signment of administration officials and members of the Rodong (Workers') Party to enhance the government's efficiency, the "North Korea is cutting the workforce of its government and ruling party by up to 30 percent in an effort to reduce bureaucracy and use the workers in more productive areas, a j.a.panese daily reported Tuesday. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, who is also chairman of the National Defense Commission, recently ordered the rea.s.signment of administration officials and members of the Rodong (Workers') Party to enhance the government's efficiency, the Sankei Shimbun Sankei Shimbun said. The glut of officials has slowed the regime's operations, it said" ("N. Korea to Cut 30 Percent of Gov't, Party Workforce: Report," Yonhap dispatch from Tokyo, January 27, 2004). said. The glut of officials has slowed the regime's operations, it said" ("N. Korea to Cut 30 Percent of Gov't, Party Workforce: Report," Yonhap dispatch from Tokyo, January 27, 2004).

29. "When China began its reforms in 1979, more than 70 percent of the population was in the agricultural sector. (The same held true for Vietnam when it began reforming the following decade.) Debureaucratization of agriculture under these conditions permits rapid increases in productivity and the release of labor into the nascent nonstate-owned manufacturing sector. ... In contrast, North Korea has about half that share employed in agriculture" (.Marcus Noland, "When China began its reforms in 1979, more than 70 percent of the population was in the agricultural sector. (The same held true for Vietnam when it began reforming the following decade.) Debureaucratization of agriculture under these conditions permits rapid increases in productivity and the release of labor into the nascent nonstate-owned manufacturing sector. ... In contrast, North Korea has about half that share employed in agriculture" (.Marcus Noland, Korea after Kim Jong-il Korea after Kim Jong-il [Washington, D.C: Inst.i.tute for International Economics, 2004], pp. 4849. Noland's study offers various scenarios for the country's future and a.s.sesses the prospects for successful reform). [Washington, D.C: Inst.i.tute for International Economics, 2004], pp. 4849. Noland's study offers various scenarios for the country's future and a.s.sesses the prospects for successful reform).

30. See, for example, remarks by South Korea's foreign minister in Norimitsu On-ishi, "Seoul Has Big Plans for North Korea (Nightmares, Too)," See, for example, remarks by South Korea's foreign minister in Norimitsu On-ishi, "Seoul Has Big Plans for North Korea (Nightmares, Too)," The New York Times, The New York Times, December 17, 2003. December 17, 2003.

31. "South Korea Emerging as N. Korea's No. 1 Export .Market," Yonhap, December 9, 2003. From 1996 to August 2003 the Souths c.u.mulative private-sector investment in the North came to $1.15 billion. More than 80 percent of that was invested in the two light-water nuclear reactors that had been promised to North Korea in exchange for its 1994 nuclear freeze. But the total also included investments by Hyundai, the Unification Church and others ("South Korean Private Investment in North Amounts to 1.15 Billion Dollars," Yonhap, October 28, 2003). "South Korea Emerging as N. Korea's No. 1 Export .Market," Yonhap, December 9, 2003. From 1996 to August 2003 the Souths c.u.mulative private-sector investment in the North came to $1.15 billion. More than 80 percent of that was invested in the two light-water nuclear reactors that had been promised to North Korea in exchange for its 1994 nuclear freeze. But the total also included investments by Hyundai, the Unification Church and others ("South Korean Private Investment in North Amounts to 1.15 Billion Dollars," Yonhap, October 28, 2003).

32. Marcus Noland, "How Bush risks losing Korea," Marcus Noland, "How Bush risks losing Korea," Financial Times, Financial Times, January 22, 2004. January 22, 2004.

33. "Food Ad Will Be Cut In North, Agency Says," "Food Ad Will Be Cut In North, Agency Says," JoongAng Ilbo, JoongAng Ilbo, January 25, 2004. January 25, 2004.

34. Frank, "'Gigantic Change " (see chap. 35, n. 15). Frank, "'Gigantic Change " (see chap. 35, n. 15).

35. Kim Jung Min, "Young People Struggle for Jobs in South Korea's Weak Economy," Kim Jung Min, "Young People Struggle for Jobs in South Korea's Weak Economy," The Wall Street Journal, The Wall Street Journal, January 28, 2004, p. B28. January 28, 2004, p. B28.

36. "N. Korea Threatens to Suspend Inter-Korean Tourism," "N. Korea Threatens to Suspend Inter-Korean Tourism," Asia Pulse, Asia Pulse, February 5, 2004. February 5, 2004.

37. "North Korea Blasts j.a.pan's Move to Stop Cash Transfers," Agence France-Presse, January 31, 2004. j.a.pan insisted that the issue be on the agenda along with nuclear weapons in the six-party talks. See Richard Hanson, "j.a.pan, North Korea stumble over abductions," "North Korea Blasts j.a.pan's Move to Stop Cash Transfers," Agence France-Presse, January 31, 2004. j.a.pan insisted that the issue be on the agenda along with nuclear weapons in the six-party talks. See Richard Hanson, "j.a.pan, North Korea stumble over abductions," Asia Times Online, Asia Times Online, February 16, 2004, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/j.a.pan/FB16Dh01.html. February 16, 2004, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/j.a.pan/FB16Dh01.html.

38. See Frank, "End of Socialism and a Wedding Gift for the Groom?" See Frank, "End of Socialism and a Wedding Gift for the Groom?"

39. See James Brooke, "Quietly North Korea Opens Markets," See James Brooke, "Quietly North Korea Opens Markets," The New York Times, The New York Times, November 19, 2003, p. W1. November 19, 2003, p. W1.

40. Noland, "How Bush risks losing Korea." Noland, "How Bush risks losing Korea."

41. Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough, "Notes from the Pentagon: North Korea split," Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough, "Notes from the Pentagon: North Korea split," The Gertz File, The Gertz File, August 8, 2003, http://www.gertzfile.com/gertzfile/ ring080803.html. On a trip to Iraq in January 2004 Wolfowitz was quoted as describing Saddam Hussein as being, in terms of evil, "in a cla.s.s with very few others-Stalin, Hitler, Kim Jong-il" (Thomas E. Ricks, "Wolfowitz Stands His Ground on Iraq," August 8, 2003, http://www.gertzfile.com/gertzfile/ ring080803.html. On a trip to Iraq in January 2004 Wolfowitz was quoted as describing Saddam Hussein as being, in terms of evil, "in a cla.s.s with very few others-Stalin, Hitler, Kim Jong-il" (Thomas E. Ricks, "Wolfowitz Stands His Ground on Iraq," Washington Post National Weekly Edition, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, January 1218, 2004, p. 7). January 1218, 2004, p. 7).

42. "There is extensive evidence of a major coup attempt by elements of the VI Corps in 1995, which appears to have been crushed only with some difficulty," Foreign Service Officer Larry Robinson wrote in a secret cable to Washington from the U.S. Emba.s.sy in Seoul in 1998. Leaked to journalist Bill Gertz, the cable is reproduced in Gertz's book, "There is extensive evidence of a major coup attempt by elements of the VI Corps in 1995, which appears to have been crushed only with some difficulty," Foreign Service Officer Larry Robinson wrote in a secret cable to Washington from the U.S. Emba.s.sy in Seoul in 1998. Leaked to journalist Bill Gertz, the cable is reproduced in Gertz's book, Betrayal: How the Clinton Administration Undermined American Security Betrayal: How the Clinton Administration Undermined American Security (Washington, D.C.: Regnery Publishing, Inc., 1999), pp. 255264. (Washington, D.C.: Regnery Publishing, Inc., 1999), pp. 255264.

43. Kang Myong-do, Kang Myong-do, pyeongyangeun mangmyeoneul k.u.mgungda pyeongyangeun mangmyeoneul k.u.mgungda (see chap. 13, n. 52). (see chap. 13, n. 52).

44. Philip W. Yun, "North Korea-New Lessons Learned," Philip W. Yun, "North Korea-New Lessons Learned," The DPRK Briefing Book, The DPRK Briefing Book, Nautilus Inst.i.tute, http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKBriefingBook/multilateralTalks/ Yun.html. Nautilus Inst.i.tute, http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKBriefingBook/multilateralTalks/ Yun.html.

45. See Cha and Kang, See Cha and Kang, Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies (New York: Columbia University Press, 2003). For other recent takes on the policy issues, see a Brookings Inst.i.tution study by Michael O'Hanlon and Mike Mochizuki, (New York: Columbia University Press, 2003). For other recent takes on the policy issues, see a Brookings Inst.i.tution study by Michael O'Hanlon and Mike Mochizuki, Crisis on the Korean Peninsula: How to Deal with a Nuclear North Korea Crisis on the Korean Peninsula: How to Deal with a Nuclear North Korea (New York: McGraw Hill, 2003); and Gavan McCormack, (New York: McGraw Hill, 2003); and Gavan McCormack, Target North Korea: Pushing North Korea to the Brink of Nuclear Catastrophe Target North Korea: Pushing North Korea to the Brink of Nuclear Catastrophe (New York: Nation Books, 2004). (New York: Nation Books, 2004).

46. Kelly, "Ensuring a Korean Peninsula." Kelly, "Ensuring a Korean Peninsula."

47. Amba.s.sador Li Gun, "Requisites for Resolving the Nuclear Issue," Center for National Policy, republished by Nautilus Inst.i.tute, Amba.s.sador Li Gun, "Requisites for Resolving the Nuclear Issue," Center for National Policy, republished by Nautilus Inst.i.tute, The DPRK Briefing Book, The DPRK Briefing Book, February 6, 2004, http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKBriefingBook/multilateralTalks/ Li-Gun-NukeIssue.pdf February 6, 2004, http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKBriefingBook/multilateralTalks/ Li-Gun-NukeIssue.pdf 48. "This administration has made the world less safe because they were unwilling to continue that dialogue," the senator from Ma.s.sachusetts said in a televised forum sponsored by CBS. "I would put all the issues of the peninsula on the table, not just the nuclear issue but the economic, the human rights, the deployment of forces," he said. "I believe that between China, j.a.pan and South Korea and our own interests, and the state of the economy in North Korea and their own interests, there is a deal to be struck." See "Democrats Press for More-Direct Talks with Korea," Washington-datelined Agence France-Presse dispatch, March 1, 2004. "This administration has made the world less safe because they were unwilling to continue that dialogue," the senator from Ma.s.sachusetts said in a televised forum sponsored by CBS. "I would put all the issues of the peninsula on the table, not just the nuclear issue but the economic, the human rights, the deployment of forces," he said. "I believe that between China, j.a.pan and South Korea and our own interests, and the state of the economy in North Korea and their own interests, there is a deal to be struck." See "Democrats Press for More-Direct Talks with Korea," Washington-datelined Agence France-Presse dispatch, March 1, 2004.

49. North Korea Raises Nuclear Tension," Seoul-datelined a.s.sociated Press dispatch, March 18, 2004. Also see George Gedda, "Newsview: U.S., N. Korea Decide to Wait," Washington-datelined a.s.sociated Press dispatch, March 10, 2004. North Korea Raises Nuclear Tension," Seoul-datelined a.s.sociated Press dispatch, March 18, 2004. Also see George Gedda, "Newsview: U.S., N. Korea Decide to Wait," Washington-datelined a.s.sociated Press dispatch, March 10, 2004.

50. Kelly, "Ensuring a Korean Peninsula." Kelly, "Ensuring a Korean Peninsula."

51. By way of a.n.a.logy think of 1945 j.a.pan. The people were so deeply indoctrinated in emperor worship that the U.S. conquerors decided it would be best for Emperor Hirohito to publicly confess his lack of divinity-and then stay on as a stabilizing influence. By way of a.n.a.logy think of 1945 j.a.pan. The people were so deeply indoctrinated in emperor worship that the U.S. conquerors decided it would be best for Emperor Hirohito to publicly confess his lack of divinity-and then stay on as a stabilizing influence.

52. John Harwood and Greg Hitt, "Bush and Kerry Frame Contrasts of Race Ahead; As Democrat Adds to Wins, President Defends Policies in Rare TV Appearance," John Harwood and Greg Hitt, "Bush and Kerry Frame Contrasts of Race Ahead; As Democrat Adds to Wins, President Defends Policies in Rare TV Appearance," The Wall Street Journal, The Wall Street Journal, February 9, 2004. February 9, 2004.

53. Boronchov, "Pyongyang Residents Carry Cellular Phones." Boronchov, "Pyongyang Residents Carry Cellular Phones."

54. Vernon Loeb and Peter Slevin, "Overcoming North Korea's Tyranny of Proximity," Vernon Loeb and Peter Slevin, "Overcoming North Korea's Tyranny of Proximity," Washington Post, Washington Post, January 20, 2003, p. A16, quoted in Cha and Kang, January 20, 2003, p. A16, quoted in Cha and Kang, Nuclear North Korea, Nuclear North Korea, p. 6. p. 6.

55. An article in March 2003 said that the United States and Asian countries had "begun to accept the idea" of a nuclear-armed North Korea. See Doug Struck and Glenn Kessler, "Foes Giving In To N. Korea's Nuclear Aims," An article in March 2003 said that the United States and Asian countries had "begun to accept the idea" of a nuclear-armed North Korea. See Doug Struck and Glenn Kessler, "Foes Giving In To N. Korea's Nuclear Aims," Washington Post, Washington Post, March 5, 2003, p. A1. However, in the year that followed the voices of agreement with such a notion seemed muted. March 5, 2003, p. A1. However, in the year that followed the voices of agreement with such a notion seemed muted.

56. In what Marcus Noland calls the "neo-conservative's dream" scenario, "the global community puts the squeeze on the Kim Jong-il regime. Aid is cut off. Growth falls to its previous low of minus 6 percent. The inexpertly enacted July 2002 economic policy changes drive inflation up 300 percent, reputedly its rate over the course of the year since the introduction of the reforms. In the international embargo' scenario, North Korea's relations with the rest of the world deteriorate precipitously, perhaps under suspicion of exportation of nuclear weapons or materials, and all international trade is cut off Noland's economic modeling showed that in the "neo-conservative's dream" scenario, "the likelihood of regime change rises to about a one in seven probability, growing thereafter, and in all probability, Kim Jong-il is out of power before George W. Bush. (Remember, in neo-conservative dreams, George W. Bush is in power until 2008.) In the final scenario, 'international embargo,' the likelihood of regime change is over 40 percent in the first year and the Kim Jong-il regime probably collapses within two years" (Noland, In what Marcus Noland calls the "neo-conservative's dream" scenario, "the global community puts the squeeze on the Kim Jong-il regime. Aid is cut off. Growth falls to its previous low of minus 6 percent. The inexpertly enacted July 2002 economic policy changes drive inflation up 300 percent, reputedly its rate over the course of the year since the introduction of the reforms. In the international embargo' scenario, North Korea's relations with the rest of the world deteriorate precipitously, perhaps under suspicion of exportation of nuclear weapons or materials, and all international trade is cut off Noland's economic modeling showed that in the "neo-conservative's dream" scenario, "the likelihood of regime change rises to about a one in seven probability, growing thereafter, and in all probability, Kim Jong-il is out of power before George W. Bush. (Remember, in neo-conservative dreams, George W. Bush is in power until 2008.) In the final scenario, 'international embargo,' the likelihood of regime change is over 40 percent in the first year and the Kim Jong-il regime probably collapses within two years" (Noland, Korea after Kim Jong-il, Korea after Kim Jong-il, pp. 4041). pp. 4041).

57. Proposed "North Korean Freedom Act of 2003," introduced by Senator Sam Brownback for himself and Senator Evan Bayh. Proposed "North Korea Human Rights Act of 2004," introduced by Representative James Leach. Proposed "North Korean Freedom Act of 2003," introduced by Senator Sam Brownback for himself and Senator Evan Bayh. Proposed "North Korea Human Rights Act of 2004," introduced by Representative James Leach.

58. The Senate bill was drafted by Michael Horowitz of the Hudson Inst.i.tute, director of the Project for International Religious Liberty and the Project for Civil Justice Reform. See "The North Korea Freedom Act," The Senate bill was drafted by Michael Horowitz of the Hudson Inst.i.tute, director of the Project for International Religious Liberty and the Project for Civil Justice Reform. See "The North Korea Freedom Act," Korea Times, Korea Times, February 27, 2004. Leading lobbyists for such legislation included religious leaders. February 27, 2004. Leading lobbyists for such legislation included religious leaders.

59. A statement on human trafficking by State Department spokesman Richard Boucher on September 10, 2003 (see http://www.usemba.s.sy.it/file2003_09/alia/ a3091009.htm), said, "Burma, Cuba, Liberia, North Korea and Sudan still meet the Tier 3 standard, because their governments still fail to comply with the minimum standards, and fail to make significant efforts to do so. The President, acting on the recommendations of the Secretary determined that sanctions will be imposed on Burma, Cuba and North Korea. While Liberia and Sudan are also subject to sanctions, the President determined that certain multilateral a.s.sistance for these two countries would promote the purposes of the Act or is otherwise in the national interest of the United States. For Sudan, that a.s.sistance will be limited to that which may be necessary to implement a peace accord." Elisabeth b.u.miller reported that religious lobbyists Charles W. Colson, the one-time Watergate criminal who found born-again Christianity in prison and went on to head a prison ministries organization, and Richard D. Land, an official of the Southern Baptist Convention, A statement on human trafficking by State Department spokesman Richard Boucher on September 10, 2003 (see http://www.usemba.s.sy.it/file2003_09/alia/ a3091009.htm), said, "Burma, Cuba, Liberia, North Korea and Sudan still meet the Tier 3 standard, because their governments still fail to comply with the minimum standards, and fail to make significant efforts to do so. The President, acting on the recommendations of the Secretary determined that sanctions will be imposed on Burma, Cuba and North Korea. While Liberia and Sudan are also subject to sanctions, the President determined that certain multilateral a.s.sistance for these two countries would promote the purposes of the Act or is otherwise in the national interest of the United States. For Sudan, that a.s.sistance will be limited to that which may be necessary to implement a peace accord." Elisabeth b.u.miller reported that religious lobbyists Charles W. Colson, the one-time Watergate criminal who found born-again Christianity in prison and went on to head a prison ministries organization, and Richard D. Land, an official of the Southern Baptist Convention, 'were 'were behind President Bush's broad initiative on human trafficking. See "Evangelicals Sway White House on Human Rights Issues Abroad," behind President Bush's broad initiative on human trafficking. See "Evangelicals Sway White House on Human Rights Issues Abroad," The New York Times, The New York Times, October 26, 2003, p. 1. October 26, 2003, p. 1.

60. See "North Korea," Human Rights Watch, pp. 1216, www.hrw.org/asia/dprko-rea.php. Also, "A Human Rights Report on the Trafficking of Persons, Especially Women and Children," The Protection Project, 2002, pp. 408409, 209.190.246.239/ver2/cr/nkpdf See "North Korea," Human Rights Watch, pp. 1216, www.hrw.org/asia/dprko-rea.php. Also, "A Human Rights Report on the Trafficking of Persons, Especially Women and Children," The Protection Project, 2002, pp. 408409, 209.190.246.239/ver2/cr/nkpdf 61. David Hawk, David Hawk, The Hidden Gulag The Hidden Gulag (see chap. 16, n. 4), pp. 6572. (see chap. 16, n. 4), pp. 6572.

62. See Jerrold M. Post, M.D., and Laurita M. Denny, M.A., "Kim Jong-il of North Korea: A Political Psychology Profile," computer printout. I found some lapses in the research. During the famine, Post and Denny stated without qualification, Kim cut off nearly all of the food supplies going to the country's four eastern provinces. The citation, however, was to a book whose author had prudently used such qualifying words as "appeared" and "suggests" to acknowledge that the evidence was not all in regarding his hypothesis. Also, the cited pages blame "the regime," making no mention of Kim as the one who would have taken the action. In the same paragraph of the draft profile appeared a claim that, according to eyewitness testimony, Kim had ordered systematic infanticide in the political prison camps. The citation in that case was to a newspaper article that said nothing at all about whether Kim Jong-il had given the orders. Although the infanticides themselves See Jerrold M. Post, M.D., and Laurita M. Denny, M.A., "Kim Jong-il of North Korea: A Political Psychology Profile," computer printout. I found some lapses in the research. During the famine, Post and Denny stated without qualification, Kim cut off nearly all of the food supplies going to the country's four eastern provinces. The citation, however, was to a book whose author had prudently used such qualifying words as "appeared" and "suggests" to acknowledge that the evidence was not all in regarding his hypothesis. Also, the cited pages blame "the regime," making no mention of Kim as the one who would have taken the action. In the same paragraph of the draft profile appeared a claim that, according to eyewitness testimony, Kim had ordered systematic infanticide in the political prison camps. The citation in that case was to a newspaper article that said nothing at all about whether Kim Jong-il had given the orders. Although the infanticides themselves 'were 'were doc.u.mented, I knew of no one who claimed to have seen or heard Kim ordering that they be performed. doc.u.mented, I knew of no one who claimed to have seen or heard Kim ordering that they be performed.

63. For example, in his 1996 speech marking the fiftieth anniversary of Kim Il-sung University, Kim Jong-il told of seeing hungry people search for food when he visited a steel mill. He said he had been told that "in other areas the roads, trains and train stations For example, in his 1996 speech marking the fiftieth anniversary of Kim Il-sung University, Kim Jong-il told of seeing hungry people search for food when he visited a steel mill. He said he had been told that "in other areas the roads, trains and train stations 'were 'were full of such people"-a trend of events he described as "heartbreaking." To his 1998 visitors from Chongryon in j.a.pan, he complained that the Pyongyang power plant "stops working often and the people of Pyongyang are freezing. I cannot bear watching them suffer like that." True, he continued to dine gourmet-fashion, like the king he was. True, he left to subordinates the task of doing something about the people's misery while he focused on the military. But to say that he did not feel full of such people"-a trend of events he described as "heartbreaking." To his 1998 visitors from Chongryon in j.a.pan, he complained that the Pyongyang power plant "stops working often and the people of Pyongyang are freezing. I cannot bear watching them suffer like that." True, he continued to dine gourmet-fashion, like the king he was. True, he left to subordinates the task of doing something about the people's misery while he focused on the military. But to say that he did not feel any any of his people's pain was a leap beyond what the evidence would justify. of his people's pain was a leap beyond what the evidence would justify.

64. Michael Breen, Michael Breen, Kim Jong-il: North Korea's Dear Leader Kim Jong-il: North Korea's Dear Leader (Singapore: John Wiley & Sons [Asia] Pte Ltd, 2004), p. xiv. In a chapter ent.i.tled "Is Kim Jong-il Evil?" Breen offers his own, nonclinical a.n.a.lysis of Kim's personality, informed by the author's long and close a.s.sociation with Koreans. "As offensive as his regime may seem in the modern world, we should not a.s.sume that the leader of an undemocratic state is necessarily evil, any more than European kings were evil in the pre-democracy period," Breen writes. "Kim Jong-il is neither insane nor evil. But he benefits from being at the top of a system which ... is both" (pp. 91, 110). (Singapore: John Wiley & Sons [Asia] Pte Ltd, 2004), p. xiv. In a chapter ent.i.tled "Is Kim Jong-il Evil?" Breen offers his own, nonclinical a.n.a.lysis of Kim's personality, informed by the author's long and close a.s.sociation with Koreans. "As offensive as his regime may seem in the modern world, we should not a.s.sume that the leader of an undemocratic state is necessarily evil, any more than European kings were evil in the pre-democracy period," Breen writes. "Kim Jong-il is neither insane nor evil. But he benefits from being at the top of a system which ... is both" (pp. 91, 110).

65. As a longtime, generally harsh critic of the leader and his regime, I could understand the impulse to pile on. Once, while working on this book, I offered to write an article for a magazine. As I tentatively proposed it, the article would answer the question of just how evil Kim Jong-il was by proving that he ranked right down there with Hitler and Saddam Hussein. Luckily the proposal was not accepted. Otherwise, imagine the editors' reaction some weeks later when I found I had to acknowledge that-bad as Kim Jong-il's tally was on the evil side of his ledger-my review of what I had learned about him revealed that there was something more to the man. As a longtime, generally harsh critic of the leader and his regime, I could understand the impulse to pile on. Once, while working on this book, I offered to write an article for a magazine. As I tentatively proposed it, the article would answer the question of just how evil Kim Jong-il was by proving that he ranked right down there with Hitler and Saddam Hussein. Luckily the proposal was not accepted. Otherwise, imagine the editors' reaction some weeks later when I found I had to acknowledge that-bad as Kim Jong-il's tally was on the evil side of his ledger-my review of what I had learned about him revealed that there was something more to the man.

66. For the functionaries' gambits, see Chuck Downs, For the functionaries' gambits, see Chuck Downs, Over the Line: North Korea's Negotiating Strategy Over the Line: North Korea's Negotiating Strategy (Washington, D.C.: The AEI Press, 1999), and Scott Snyder, (Washington, D.C.: The AEI Press, 1999), and Scott Snyder, Negotiating on the Edge: North Korean Negotiating Behavior Negotiating on the Edge: North Korean Negotiating Behavior (Washington, D.C.: United States Inst.i.tute of Peace Press, 1999). (Washington, D.C.: United States Inst.i.tute of Peace Press, 1999).

67. Cha and Kang, Cha and Kang, Nuclear North Korea, Nuclear North Korea, p. 127. p. 127.

68. Quoted in Amba.s.sador Li Gun, "Prerequisites for Resolving the Nuclear Issue," Quoted in Amba.s.sador Li Gun, "Prerequisites for Resolving the Nuclear Issue," DPRK Briefing Book-Nautilus Inst.i.tute, DPRK Briefing Book-Nautilus Inst.i.tute, February 6, 2004, http://www.nautilus.org/ DPRKBriefingBook/multilateralTalks /Li-Gun-NukeIssue.pdf. February 6, 2004, http://www.nautilus.org/ DPRKBriefingBook/multilateralTalks /Li-Gun-NukeIssue.pdf.

69. Bill Gertz, "Kim Wants to Rule All Korea, Defector Warns," Bill Gertz, "Kim Wants to Rule All Korea, Defector Warns," The Washington Times, The Washington Times, November 4, 2003. November 4, 2003.

37. Sing of Our Leader's Favors for Thousands of Years.

1. Albright, Albright, Madame Secretary Madame Secretary (see chap. 36, n. 3), p. (see chap. 36, n. 3), p. 466. 466.

2. "DPRK Hails Leader as Partisan's Son, .Mentions Son-to-Grandson Succession," U.S. Foreign Broadcast Information Service translation of essay by Song Mi-ran: "Partisan's Son," "DPRK Hails Leader as Partisan's Son, .Mentions Son-to-Grandson Succession," U.S. Foreign Broadcast Information Service translation of essay by Song Mi-ran: "Partisan's Son," Nodong Shinmun, Nodong Shinmun, October 6, 2002, p. 2. Article ID: KPP20021011000026,:doc.u.ment ID: 0h59iwg02ykiwf, insert date: 11/08/ 2002. October 6, 2002, p. 2. Article ID: KPP20021011000026,:doc.u.ment ID: 0h59iwg02ykiwf, insert date: 11/08/ 2002.

3. Yomiuri, Yomiuri, May 45, and May 14, 2001; May 45, and May 14, 2001; j.a.pan Times, j.a.pan Times, May 45, 2001; May 45, 2001; Chosun Ilbo, Chosun Ilbo, May 4, 2001; May 4, 2001; Asia Times Online, Asia Times Online, May 5, 2001; May 5, 2001; The Guardian, The Guardian, May 5, 2001. May 5, 2001.

4. "Kaleidoscope" column "A Strange Country," "Kaleidoscope" column "A Strange Country," Chosun Ilbo, Chosun Ilbo, May 6, 2001, Internet version in English. May 6, 2001, Internet version in English.

5. "Kim Jong-nam was Traveling with Wife Shin Jong-hui," Yonhap, May 15, 2001, FBIS doc.u.ment number FBIS-EAS-2001-0515; "Kim Jong-nam was Traveling with Wife Shin Jong-hui," Yonhap, May 15, 2001, FBIS doc.u.ment number FBIS-EAS-2001-0515; Korea Herald, Korea Herald, May 9, 2001. May 9, 2001.

6. Kang Myong-do in Kang Myong-do in JoongAng Ilbo JoongAng Ilbo (see chap. 2, n. 7). (see chap. 2, n. 7).