The incentive for the solution of the subsidiary problem will therefore arise, on the basis thus adopted, when the commander has concluded that he cannot contribute to the accomplishment of his basic mission, and that he is under the necessity of evolving a new mission for himself. His basic Decision (see discussion, hereafter, of Section V of the Estimate Form) will reflect this conclusion and will thereby afford him a basis for the solution of his subsidiary problem.

Problems of the foregoing nature, where the commander justifiably departs from his instructions, are not unusual during the first step.

However, they are scarcely typical of that step so long as an organized chain of command is in effective operation. In the more usual case, the commander, at this point in his estimate, makes note of his selected course of action. Whether he selects a single course or a combination, the selection is thereafter known as the best course of action (singular).

SECTION V

THE DECISION

In the final section of the Estimate the commander is concerned with a decision as to the selection of an objective or objectives determined by himself, for the attainment of the appropriate effect desired. This decision also indicates, in proper detail, the action to be taken for the attainment of the commander's selected objective. The decision reached at this point becomes the commander's general plan of action or provides the basis therefor. It is accordingly so important that when it has been formally stated in a basic problem it is thenceforth known as the Decision.

The Statement of the Decision. Frequently the statement of the Decision may be merely a restatement of the best course of action.

Such phraseology is often adequate, provided, naturally, that the selected course of action has been, itself, correctly expressed (page 95). Sometimes, however, the commander may desire, at this point in his estimate, to develop such expression more fully. He may at this point develop his selected course into a general plan, or he may defer this development to the second step.

In any event the commander now scrutinizes his selected course of action to ensure that its expression conveys exactly the meaning which he has in mind.

He bears in mind, also, that his Decision will settle the pattern of his future action. If the selected objective is inferred, rather than specifically stated, the commander will then ensure that the inference, with all its vital implications, is plain.

As to the statement of the action required to achieve this objective, the commander realizes that the pattern laid down by the Decision is merely a shape or general outline. The details will be introduced later. The Decision covers the general outline of the action contemplated for the entire force.

If, for example, only a part of the commander's force is to act, while the remainder is to remain inactive, the Decision will cover not only the kind of activity but also the extent of the inactivity. However, for convenience in stating the Decision, such inactivity may be inferred, rather than expressly stated, so long as the meaning is made clear. Thus, if the force, except for a raiding task group, is to remain inactive for the time being, the Decision may properly be "to raid enemy communications in the area ---- with a task group consisting of ----", so long as the commander is satisfied that the implication is clear, under the circ.u.mstances, that the remainder of his force is to remain inactive.

The commander may properly include brief summarizing remarks as to the methods, broadly viewed, whereby he intends to take action. However, he introduces such detail only to the extent that he feels amplification is needed, either for his own benefit or for the a.s.sistance of others who may use his estimate.

Deductions or inferences which the commander wishes to note may, at this point, be included with the Decision as corollaries (see next page).

Where combinations of courses of action have been made in selecting the best course, the meaning can sometimes be improved at this point by modification of the previous wording.

When, as previously discussed (page 151), the commander has concluded that he cannot feasibly or acceptably adopt any course of action which will accomplish his task, contribute in any measure to its accomplishment, or even contribute in any degree to the accomplishment of the purpose of his mission, he records that fact in his Decision.

His study of the problem will by this time, however, have given him the necessary data for a conclusion as to what his new mission should be. He therefore closes his basic estimate with a Decision, coupled with a purpose therefor, (see below), which will serve as a new mission, i.e., as an appropriate effect desired. This provides a basis for his solution of a subsidiary problem whose incentive is derived from this Decision.

Of course, if the commander has had time and opportunity to represent his situation on this basis to higher authority, and has received a new task therefrom, the new task, coupled with the purpose also indicated by higher authority, will provide the mission for the solution of a new basic problem.

The Purpose of the Decision. The purpose of the Decision is identical with the motivating task,--provided, of course, that the Decision, if carried out, will accomplish that task in full. When stated, the purpose is usually connected with the Decision by the words "in order to".

If the commander has concluded that he will take action by stages, the Decision may cover only the first stage. In all cases where the Decision will only partially accomplish the motivating task, appropriate words to link the Decision to its purpose may be such as "to a.s.sist in" or "preparatory to".

The statement of this purpose, in connection with the Decision, is frequently helpful and is sometimes necessary in making clear the exact relationship between the Decision and the motivating task. In the next planning step, where the detailed operations are determined, this purpose is an important guide because each detailed operation is expected to contribute to the accomplishment, not only of the Decision, but also of the motivating task.

Corollaries to the Decision. The Decision may involve certain deductions or inferences, either delimiting or amplifying its nature.

The commander may find it desirable to make note of these matters in connection with his Decision. He may later wish to use these notes when formulating his plan. Since these matters relate to deductions or inferences which naturally follow as results of the Decision they are properly referred to as "corollaries" to the Decision.

The nature of such corollaries may best be shown by an example. It is supposed, for instance, that the commander has made the Decision "to guard the Eastern Caribbean barrier against enemy penetration". During the course of his estimate of the situation, he has come to the conclusion that his operations to carry out this Decision will extend into the area limited by Port X on the north, and Port Y on the south.

This conclusion is a deduction, which immediately a.s.sumes importance when the Decision is made. The commander states this deduced conclusion here, in connection with the Decision, for future guidance in resolving the Decision into detailed operations, as well as for later use in his directives to limit the action of his subordinates.

No particular form is specified for such corollaries. It is satisfactory to list them as Corollary I, Corollary II, etc. They do not const.i.tute a part of the Decision.

Relation of the Decision to the Detailed Plan and Directives. The Decision is the basis for the commander's plan of action for his entire force. This plan is promulgated in one or more directives. The Decision, as it appears in the Estimate, is not yet the concern of subordinate commanders. It does not become their concern until it is used in directives. As incorporated in the commander's detailed plan and in his directives, the Decision, whether further developed or not, const.i.tutes the commander's general plan and is referred to in those terms.

The Decision, as it appears in the Estimate, is not bound by any rigid specifications as to form. Later (Chapter VII), when the commander prepares for the inauguration of planned action by the formulation and issue of directives, he a.s.sumes the obligation of conveying the substance of his Decision to his subordinates in clear language. At that time he will again have to subject its expression to scrutiny, and may find that he has to make modifications solely for clarification.

CHAPTER VII

THE RESOLUTION OF THE REQUIRED ACTION INTO DETAILED OPERATIONS

(The Second Step--The Solution of Subsidiary Problems)

The problem of the second step may be stated in question form as follows: "What action should I take for the attainment of my objective as selected in the first step?"

[Sidenote: For convenience a tabular form, inserted in the appendix, page 224, gives page references to the princ.i.p.al subdivisions of this Chapter.]

Having arrived at his basic Decision, the commander, if he wishes to put it into effect, will proceed to formulate a plan of action which can be cast into the forms of directives for execution. In making such a plan, he provides for operations in the detail proper for his situation. He thereby expands the general plan, indicated in or developed from his basic Decision, into a complete plan which can readily be placed in the Order Form (Chapter VIII) as a directive or directives for the guidance of his subordinates.

The procedure involved in formulating such a detailed plan of action has been described previously in general terms (Chapter V). The method of determining the salient features of the operations required has also been discussed (in Section III of Chapter IV). Therefore, these matters are not repeated at this point.

The problems distinctive of this procedure (the second step, as described in Chapter V) are subsidiary problems, in the sense that the incentive for their solution arises by reason of a decision already made by the commander, i.e., the basic Decision, and because they are problems which the commander recognizes are to be solved by himself and not by his subordinates.

a.s.sumptions. The commander's plan has been derived from an estimate of the situation based on the best information available to him. Complete and accurate information is frequently lacking; hence, many military plans consider contingencies which, to make a plan possible, have been accepted in the estimate as a.s.sumptions.

The word a.s.sumption, when used to denote a basis for a plan, signifies "the taking of something for granted". It does not mean a conjecture, guess, or probability. The proposed action, resulting from a decision made under an a.s.sumption, is designed to be taken only upon the disclosure of the truth of the a.s.sumption. The fact that the a.s.sumption upon which the plan is based may prove false indicates the advisability of developing several plans based upon various sets of a.s.sumptions.

It would be erroneous to believe that all contingencies can be foreseen, and to be content with a particular set of plans, all of which may prove to be wrong. It is not to be expected that a plan based upon a.s.sumptions will, in all respects, be suitable for use in an actual situation. For example, it will seldom occur that an elaborate Battle Plan, based upon a.s.sumptions as to the various types, dispositions, and strengths of forces present, the weather conditions, and the intent of the enemy, can be used without changes.

On the other hand, a plan for the sortie of a fleet from a harbor under a.s.sumptions that high visibility exists, that airplanes can operate, and that hostile submarines will be the only force in opposition, may frequently be found entirely applicable to the actual situation, or so nearly so as to require only slight modification. It is possible so to standardize such plans that only minor variables need be indicated when the plan is to be used.

The visualization of valid and useful a.s.sumptions frequently makes the most serious demands on professional knowledge and judgment.

Alternative Plans. The word "alternative" is generally applied to contingent plans intended to accomplish a common task, but developed from varying sets of a.s.sumptions. "A choice between several" is the meaning of the word as here used. When such choice becomes necessary in a situation not yet clarified, that plan will be selected which has been derived from the set of a.s.sumptions considered by the commander as most likely to be correct. The selected plan is usually called the plan or the "accepted plan", and the other plans, coming from other less likely but still possible sets of a.s.sumptions, are called Alternative Plan No. 1, Alternative Plan No. 2, etc.

Naval tactical situations particularly lend themselves to the drawing up of alternative plans in advance. There are numerous general categories of such tactical plans. Among these the Battle Plan is of paramount concern. Others include plans for sortie, entrance, defense while cruising, etc. In each category, alternative plans may be developed, based on various sets of a.s.sumptions.

Alternative plans evolved in advance of detailed information may be found useful as a general basis for action. Circ.u.mstances may prove to be different from those previously visualized. The correct procedure is to keep the plans up to date, testing them, by the latest information, in a Running Estimate (Chapter IX). The commander will thus have a foundation for sound decision in the circ.u.mstances which actually arise.

Still another use of alternative plans merits consideration. Early coordinated action during actual operations may be demanded although neither time nor the information available has permitted a detailed estimate. If the commander has drawn up, in advance, plans based on a.s.sumptions as to conditions that conceivably might exist, he will be better able to appreciate the situations which actually arise. He can thus direct the necessary action with more rapidity and understanding than if completely unprepared because of lack of planning. If he informs his subordinates of his proposed action under certain a.s.sumed conditions, he will facilitate cooperation, because better mutual understanding will exist. The advance alternative plans here discussed are not necessarily confined to problems confronting a commander during actual war operations. They may profitably be drawn up in peace, and may be the basis of training exercises.

Application of the Essential Elements of a Favorable Military Operation

In the solution of the problems distinctive of the second step, the commander starts with a consideration of the salient features of a favorably progressing military operation. This procedure is appropriate because any series of these problems, considered as a whole, pertains to the single problem of determining the most effective operation, or series of operations, for carrying his basic Decision into effect. If the action contemplated in the basic Decision is of such a nature as to call for successive included efforts in more than one stage, the commander limits his consideration, should he find such restriction advisable on sound grounds, to the operation or operations included in the first stage.

On this basis, the commander considers, first, the feature of correct physical objectives. He has first to determine what his correct physical objectives will be.

This determination may or may not present a perplexity. Frequently, the procedure of the first step (Chapter VI) will have plainly indicated one or more, perhaps all, of the physical objectives involved. In some cases, also, the basic Decision will have plainly pointed out the action to be taken, and with respect to what physical objectives. In these instances, the commander may, with little further a.n.a.lysis or none, set down the operations which he considers necessary or desirable with respect to these physical objectives.