In any landing operation, the topography of the area to be occupied may be the controlling factor.

(c) Weather. The seasonal weather in the theater will have a direct bearing upon operations. The use of aircraft, the employment of light forces, the habitability of ships over long periods, the use of smoke, the range at which a gun action may be fought, the effect of spray and gases,--these considerations are but some of the matters which will be affected by weather.

The possession of, and the position of, meteorological stations within the theater are of growing importance in the successful planning of coordinated air, submarine, and surface operations.

(d) Daylight and Dark Periods. It may be well under this heading to put in tabular form the times of sunrise, sunset, moonrise, moonset, the phases of the moon, and the duration of morning and evening twilight. When, for example, the commander is considering night destroyer attacks, the operation of submarines, or the type of protective screens he desires to use, he may profitably refer to these tabulations.

(e) Relative Location and Distance. No part of the study of the characteristics of the theater is of greater importance than that pertaining to relative location and distance. At this point it may be found advantageous to place in tabular form the distances between the important positions within the geographical area of the theater. This study furnishes knowledge as to the availability of certain localities for use in support of, or in cooperation with, forces at other localities, and as to distances in relation to steaming capabilities of the various units which make up the commander's force.

(f) Lines of Transportation and Supply. The usual sea routes which pa.s.s through the theater are an important subject of study; also, particular focal points, defiles, and restricted waters which are, or may prove to be, critical areas with respect to own or enemy forces.

Other items are the significant routes from home or enemy territory, i.e., the lines of communication, the terminal points, and the flanking positions along these lines.

(g) Facilities and Fortifications. The facilities for the support, upkeep, and repair of the units of the commander's forces and of the opposing force, as well as the fortifications existing within the area, may require consideration. Other features which may render a port or base of value, or which may indicate a possible necessity of denying it to the enemy, also merit attention.

(h) Communications. In strategical estimates, more particularly in broad ones covering large theaters, study of communications involves not only those means under the commander's control, but also his relation to the system of regional and national communications operated by his government. Examination is made into the established physical stations; such examination includes radio, cables, and perhaps land wires.

In tactical estimates the means of communication which affect the engagement are more directly those under the control of the commander.

An examination into the organization of the means to meet conditions prevailing in the theater is appropriate here.

Another aspect of communications is that of maintaining all forms against enemy interference. The importance of this feature in planning may not safely be overlooked, and careful study is indicated to provide for guaranteeing communications during action. The characteristics of the theater, as they relate to this feature, are considered here.

For the same reason, consideration of interference with enemy communications is included, so far as significance attaches to them with respect to the theater of operations.

This portion of the Estimate Form varies greatly with the type of problem under consideration. However, in all estimates, this is the place where the commander searches the theater for factors affecting communications for the particular problem.

With the completion of this subsection of the estimate, the commander has a.s.sembled and placed in workable form the information to which he expects to refer in the succeeding parts of the estimate.

(3) Conclusions as to Relative Fighting Strength.

Having surveyed the means available and opposed, as well as the characteristics of the theater of operations, the commander will find it useful to summarize the pertinent information available, in order that the strength and weakness of own and enemy forces can be readily visualized and compared. Thus the existing advantages and disadvantages are made apparent, and conclusions are drawn as to relative fighting strength.

A satisfactory procedure is to place strength and weakness factors in parallel columns for own and enemy forces. From careful consideration of the facts so far determined in Section I-B, there are extracted and expressed briefly the pertinent strength and weakness factors.

It is usually easier to determine all the strength and weakness factors in detailed tactical estimates than in broad strategical estimates.

The former deal in relatively more factual terms, with definite comparisons such as with respect to maximum speeds, numbers and caliber of guns, numbers and types of aircraft, numbers and types of torpedoes, and other such items which give the factual basis for comparison.

In broad strategical estimates, this factual basis is present, e.g., as to distances, radii of ships, geographical locations of forces, and the like. But other factors may not be so definite, especially as regards enemy forces. For example, it will often be difficult for the commander to say that the enemy's logistics problem is easier or more difficult than his own, unless he has a good idea of the amount of fuel, ammunition, and stores available to the enemy within the time limits involved. The evaluation of training, spirit, health, and courage of personnel is, as previously noted, relatively easy to determine for own forces, but more or less of a conjecture in regard to the enemy.

The value of the entries in the parallel columns at this point of the estimate will depend upon the skill of the commander in judging the factual data contained in all of the known factors of strength and weakness. The proper entries to be made will depend upon circ.u.mstances. In one estimate, for example, the anti-aircraft armament available to a carrier group will be of vital importance. In another estimate of the same carrier group, anti-aircraft defense will be of no importance because no enemy aircraft can be employed in the situation being estimated. Again, in a local tactical situation, if the ships involved have just been fueled, the economical steaming radius may be of no immediate importance. And while the total amount of high-test gasoline which can be produced in a State in the coming year may be vital to a broad strategical estimate involving war against trade, that information may be of little use in a tactical estimate of a localized, fleeting situation.

Thus, in determining what factors to evaluate, and in a.s.sessing their relative value, the commander considers only such as can possibly affect the effort to be made in the theater under consideration. The summary of strength and weakness factors is, then, a summary of those factors which the commander considers will affect the character of his effort. This summary indicates the relative importance of such factors.

A mere list of facts will not serve the purpose. What is needed here is a series of evaluations and conclusions which may result from a study of the pertinent details.

With the circ.u.mstances attending his particular problem clearly in mind, the commander carefully reviews each of the factors of fighting strength in the theater; he cla.s.ses each as either a strength or weakness factor for himself or his opponent, and enters it in the proper column. A strength factor for one is not necessarily entered as a weakness factor for the opponent:--what is required is a well-digested summary of the factors which give to either side an advantage or a disadvantage as compared to the other.

NOTE

The Estimate procedure has, to this point, established the basis for the solution of the problem through evaluation of the factors pertaining to the requirements of suitability, of feasibility, and of acceptability of the consequences as to costs.

On this basis, the commander is ready to consider such courses of action as may be pertinent. To this end, he has a choice of procedures. He may first consider courses of action for himself. He may prefer, however, to consider first those which are applicable to the enemy.

If the commander considers his own courses of action first, this procedure has an advantage in that it narrows, later, the scope of enemy courses which are pertinent to his situation. This is true because consideration of enemy courses may in such a case be restricted to those which give promise of countering, effectively, his own courses of action.

This procedure may also have a certain psychological advantage, in that the commander may thereby avoid becoming unduly impressed by the potentialities of enemy action. Occasionally, prior consideration of enemy courses may tend to put the commander, unnecessarily, on the mental defensive.

First consideration of his own courses of action is especially appropriate for a commander whose mission requires him to a.s.sume the initiative, particularly when the relative fighting strength indicates that he can compel enemy action to conform to his. This is frequently the case when enemy action will chiefly affect details rather than the general trend of the operations.

These reflections indicate that first consideration of his own courses of action will very frequently be advantageous to the commander. Such a sequence is therefore indicated preferentially in the Estimate Form, and next discussed. However occasions may arise when consideration in the reverse order is preferable. Sometimes the prior consideration of enemy potentialities has the advantage of making the commander's estimate more complete with respect to the obstacles which he is to overcome. Furthermore, when the effectiveness of his future action is seen to depend chiefly upon what the enemy can do, or when the initiative lies manifestly with the enemy, and when the commander's mission requires him to frustrate enemy action, rather than to a.s.sume the initiative himself, the prior consideration of enemy courses of action may be indicated.

The commander may therefore consider the subject matter of Sections II and III in the order hereinafter followed, or he may reverse that order.

SECTION II

DETERMINATION OF SUITABLE, FEASIBLE, AND ACCEPTABLE COURSES OF ACTION

A. a.n.a.lysis of the a.s.signed Objective.

In order further to clarify the problem, consideration of the commander's courses of action may profitably commence with an a.n.a.lysis (page 53) of the a.s.signed objective. Section I-A contained an appreciation of this objective on the basis of the salient features of the situation. A close examination is now possible in the light of the additional information furnished by the full details (Section I-B) as to the means available and opposed, and as to the characteristics of the theater (page 121).

Accordingly, the mission (page 121), is now again stated, and is restudied. The task is thoughtfully examined anew, in view of the forces and positions now known. The purpose is scrutinized with equal care, because it indicates the further end in view for the common effort. Now, obstacles to success which, in Section I-A, could not fully be appreciated can be examined against the background afforded by visualization of the enemy's ability to oppose the attainment of the a.s.signed objective.

This a.n.a.lysis calls for such discussion by the commander as is essential to better understanding of his a.s.signed objective. Some restatement and repet.i.tion may be desirable as to the subjects already discussed under the appreciation of the a.s.signed objective. In solving certain types of problems, where simple estimates, only, are required, there may be no necessity for further treatment. Even in these cases, however, the commander restates his mission in this subsection, in order to ensure a clear comprehension of its task and purpose, as a sound basis for his further solution of the problem.

B. Survey of Courses of Action.

The Fundamental Military Principle (page 41) represents an equation (page 23) based on five factors: the appropriate effect desired, the means available, the means opposed, the characteristics of the theater, and the consequences as to costs. Of these five factors, all but the last (the consequences as to costs) have by this time, in the course of the estimate, been a.s.signed values as definite as the commander's information and his study permit.

From this point on, the problem is to evolve tentative solutions (courses of action) and to test them (page 98), severally, by reference to the factors. The tests as to suitability and feasibility can now be made with reference to the known factors. The test as to acceptability of the consequences involves an unknown factor. However, for each tentative solution of the problem, a value can be a.s.signed for this factor, because all five factors are interdependent (pages 32 and following), so that the value of any of them can be set by a study of the others. It is through this procedure that evaluation of the consequences factor is accomplished (an application of the corollary Principle of the Acceptable Consequences as to Costs, page 35).

By means of the standard tests, the several tentative solutions are also compared to each other in the light of envisaged enemy action, so as to enable the commander to select the best solution.

The commander now, as a result of his reflective thinking as to courses of action, makes a list of those which he has visualized for himself. There may be one course of action, or many; ordinarily there are several.

Examples of courses of action have been given in the basic discussion of the subject (pages 89 and 92). In listing his courses, the commander can add to clarity of thought and of expression by visualizing the objective embodied in each course and by envisaging also, the action, expressed in proper detail, for its attainment. This process is naturally the more important when the objective is inferred rather than specifically expressed, and when the action involved calls for more description than can be obtained merely by stating the objective.

For example, the commander may include a course of action such as "to raid enemy trade in the area EFGH". The objective is here inferred; it is not clearly stated. The commander may therefore be well advised to add a notation of what the objective is; indeed, more than one objective may be involved. Objectives thus inferred might include, when specifically stated, the infliction of damage on enemy trade, the infliction of damage on enemy combatant forces protecting such trade, the disruption of enemy supply arrangements, or such others as may be applicable.

This clear visualization is essential to the establishment of the relationship between the a.s.signed objective and the objective inherent in the course of action (page 89). If, for instance, the motivating task is to "divert enemy forces to the area EFGH", the commander may consider the course of action "to raid enemy trade in area EFGH". By infliction of damage to, and by disruption of, enemy supply (objectives of his raiding), he expects to accomplish the diversion of enemy forces to the area EFGH, because the enemy will wish to protect his trade against such raids. The relationship between the a.s.signed objective and the objective inferred in the course of action is thus made clear.