V. The Decision.

A tabular form inserted in the Appendix lists the foregoing headings and their princ.i.p.al subdivisions within the Estimate Form. For convenience, the appended Form also includes page references to the discussion in this chapter.

SECTION I

ESTABLISHMENT OF THE BASIS FOR SOLUTION OF THE PROBLEM

As noted in the Fundamental Military Principle, each objective, prior to its selection, and each operation, prior to its adoption, requires examination from the standpoint of suitability, feasibility, and acceptability. Suitability involves the factor of the appropriate effect desired; feasibility involves the factors of the means available and opposed, as influenced by the characteristics of the theater; and acceptability involves the factor of the consequences as to costs.

In order to establish a sound basis for the solution of a military problem, one which will permit the tests for suitability, feasibility, and acceptability (see pages 98-102) to be intelligently applied, it is necessary that the factors involved be studied.

A. The Appropriate Effect Desired.

The appropriate effect desired, the first factor listed, is the goal toward which the commander is working. He is enabled to form an understanding of this essential aspect of his problem through (1) a grasp of the salient features of the situation, (2) a recognition of the incentive to solution, and (3) an appreciation of the a.s.signed objective. He expresses this understanding by (4) formulating the mission.

The sequence in which the commander takes up these considerations is a matter for his own choice. Usually, directives from higher authority (see Chapter VIII as to the Order Form) give him, first, information as to the situation; thereafter, such directives a.s.sign him a task (or tasks) involving one or more a.s.signed objectives. For this reason, the sequence so indicated is the one utilized here.

(1) Summary of the Situation. Before the commander can decide whether he wishes to maintain the existing situation or to change it, he requires a mental picture of its salient features. On beginning the Estimate, the available information is therefore briefly summarized.

The picture presented here will show in broad outline (page 79) the opposing forces as disposed in localities which const.i.tute relative positions with reference to each other. Details are reserved for Section I-B of the Estimate.

The appropriate data are noted on the chart, and study of the chart goes hand in hand with the development of the Estimate.

The summary of the situation may include statements as to present activities of own and enemy forces. It may recite significant occurrences. It does not attempt to compare or to deduce; such processes are deferred until Section I-B. The commander extracts, from the information furnished by higher authority, such data as are pertinent to his own problem. He includes these data in his own summary, supplementing them by information from other sources, to the extent deemed advisable. In the exercise of judgment as to the content of his summary, the commander is influenced by the fact that the summary is the point of departure for visualizing the appropriate effect desired.

(2) Recognition of the Incentive. In basic problems (the type now under discussion, see page 117), the commander finds his incentive in directives received from higher authority. Under the procedure of the Estimate, a notation of that fact, with a citation of the directive(s), is all that is required to indicate that the commander has formed a proper recognition of his incentive.

(3) Appreciation of the a.s.signed Objective. A correct understanding of the nature and of the involvements of the a.s.signed objective is, naturally, an essential to the establishment of the basis for the solution of a problem of the first step.

At this stage of the Estimate the commander cannot, however, expect always to reach a final conclusion as to this matter. He will have opportunity for further consideration, later, in Section II. It will be realized that, after intervening portions of the Estimate have been worked out, the commander will be in a position to examine the a.s.signed objective again, and to make a more thorough a.n.a.lysis.

In a basic problem, the commander is a.s.signed his objective by higher authority, usually in the form of an a.s.signed task. Although, as stated on page 84, such task may be expressed by one of various methods, a properly conceived task always indicates, either specifically or inferentially, an objective (or objectives).

Whatever method of expression may have been employed by higher authority, the commander will facilitate his appreciation of the a.s.signed objective if he now sets down his a.s.signed task, scrutinizes it carefully, and then makes note of the objective which is either specifically or inferentially indicated by that task. (See pages 52-54).

The commander's basis for solving the problem is not complete, however, with merely a statement of his own objective. Full visualization of the effect desired is not obtained until the commander appreciates not only the result which he, himself, is required to accomplish, but also the next further result which is expected to eventuate as, at least in part, an effect of his accomplishment. His goal, as an "effect desired", includes not only the effect desired of him by higher authority, but also the effect which his immediate superior desires to be accomplished by that superior's entire force.

Occasionally, full appreciation of the commander's objective will require, also, consideration of the further effects desired by yet higher successive echelons.

The natural requirement is that the goal be so clearly defined as to obviate any material doubt as to the implications involved in the commander's a.s.signed objective. When the goal has been thus defined, there results a linking of effect and further effect, of objective and further objective,--in short, of task and purpose,--the importance of which has previously been emphasized (page 48).

In making notation of this further objective for the solution of problems typical of the first step, the commander normally sets down the general plan of his immediate superior for the employment of the latter's entire force. When the linking of objective to objective, echelon by echelon, has involved no complication, the immediate superior's general plan will be a sufficient indication of the purpose for which the commander is to carry out his task.

(4) Formulation of the Mission.

The linking of the commander's a.s.signed task to the general plan of his immediate superior permits the commander to formulate his mission (page 87). His a.s.signed task becomes the task of his mission; his superior's general plan becomes the purpose of his mission. In this manner he crystallizes into a clear statement the part of the common effort which he is to carry out, indicating the a.s.signed objective he is himself to attain, as well as the further objective to whose attainment his effort is to contribute.

In establishing the basis for solution of his problem with respect to suitability, the commander may have considered his a.s.signed objective before studying his situation. If so, he may now desire to modify his earlier statement of that objective, before incorporating it in the formulation of his mission, to the end that a more clear-cut and concise expression may be obtained.

The relationship (restated from page 87 for emphasis) is expressed in the following;

My a.s.signed task is to be accomplished for the purpose of carrying out my designated part of my superior's general plan.

This formula is customarily simplified to the following:

(Task) (statement of the a.s.signed task),

(Purpose) in order to a.s.sist in the successful execution of (statement of the superior's general plan).

The words "a.s.sist in the successful execution of" may frequently be understood and therefore omitted.

The mission, thus formulated, clearly indicates the appropriate effect desired, i.e., the factor which establishes the basis for the solution of the problem from the standpoint of suitability.

B. Relative Fighting Strength.

As indicated in the Fundamental Military Principle, the second and third requirements for a sound solution of the problem are feasibility of accomplishment and acceptability of the consequences as to costs.

Both requirements have to do with the factors of relative fighting strength. Fighting strength is derived from the means available as influenced by the characteristics of the theater. Relative fighting strength is determined by a weighing of these factors against the means opposed, as influenced also by the characteristics of the theater.

These are the factors, then, which are next studied in the Estimate.

They are studied in order to complete the establishment of the basis for the solution of the problem.

The factor of consequences, as listed in the Fundamental Military Principle, is related to the factors pertinent to feasibility. This is true because consequences are a.s.sessed, in the Estimate, on the basis of the envisaged results of proposed actions. These results are necessarily predicated on the grounds established by consideration of the factors of relative fighting strength. The study of relative fighting strength thus provides not only a sound basis for the determination, later, of the feasibility of courses of action, but also of their acceptability with respect to consequences as to costs.

Particular emphasis is placed on the conclusion as to relative fighting strength, to the end that specific advantages may be ascertained. Such a study is primarily concerned with information:--its collection, its a.n.a.lysis, its evaluation, and its interpretation so as to convert it into military (naval) intelligence (page 76), with a view to its use by the commander in the solution of his problem. Information as to forces present and as to their positions is of course prerequisite to a clear comprehension of the possibilities as to physical objectives, as to relative positions, as to apportionment of fighting strength, and as to freedom of action.

The commander may choose whether he shall, in his estimate, first consider the means available and opposed, or reverse the order and give priority to the characteristics of the theater. In a particular situation, the significance of these characteristics is frequently determined by the capabilities and limitations of the means available and opposed. For this reason, these means are first discussed in this treatment, which thereafter includes the a.n.a.lysis of the characteristics of the theater.

The capabilities and limitations of the means, and the significance of the characteristics of the theater, may be expressed in terms of certain specific factors (page 25). Each of these factors may influence, or be influenced by, any or all of the others. Situations occur in which certain factors exert little or no influence. Yet, in other situations, these same factors have a paramount effect.

The cla.s.sification of factors utilized in the following treatment is applicable to most military problems.

A list of pertinent factors, to be of real use in the solution of problems, is required, first, to be complete, so that no factor will be overlooked, and, second, to be simple, so that, as far as practicable, all similar data may be discussed under one heading.

With respect to the factors set forth in succeeding pages, the solution of a particular problem may call for a different listing.

Such listing may involve, in some cases, the contraction or the omission of certain of the headings.

In other cases, an expansion will be necessary or desirable under certain headings, in considerably greater detail than shown here. For example, Section I-B of a National Estimate may involve reference to several volumes of printed books or of similar data, while, even in ordinary strategical situations, numerous charts, books of sailing directions, and other compilations may require study. Where such references are not standard and generally available, they may be appended, preferably in condensed form.

The proper listing of pertinent factors will depend on the nature of the problem.

(1) Survey of the Means Available and Opposed.