33. Daniel Yergin, The Prize, 1992.

33. Robert Sherrill, "The Case Against the Oil Companies," New York Times, October 14, 1979.

33. Author's interview with Peter Schwartz, November 2009.

34. James Akins, Foreign Affairs, April 1973.

34. Ron Alquist and Lutz Kilian, Center for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper DP6548.

35. Anthony Parisi, New York Times, September 1, 1977.

36. Quoted in Oona Strathern, A Short History of the Future, 2007.

38. Quoted in John c.o.x, Storm Watchers, 2002.

38. James Crutchfield, Doyne Farmer, Norman Packer, and Robert Shaw, "Chaos," Scientific American, December 1986.

41. William H. McNeill, "Pa.s.sing Strange: The Convergence of Evolutionary Science with Scientific History," History and Theory, February 2001.

42. Quoted in Justin Fox, The Myth of the Rational Market, 2009.

43. John Lewis Gaddis, "International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War," International Security, Winter 1992/93.

43. David Robson, "Disorderly Genius: How Chaos Drives the Brain," New Scientist, June 29, 2009.

44. Spyros Makridakis, Robin Hogarth, and Anil Gaba, Dance with Chance, 2009.

46. "The Gipper or the Guard," New York Times, November 3, 2009.

46. The cla.s.sic ill.u.s.tration of small things making huge differences is based on what is likely an apocryphal tale: Mark Antony, it is said, gazed for so long at a statue of Cleopatra, and in particular the statue's striking nose, that he was late to arrive at the battle that decided the fate of the Roman Empire. Thus, the philosopher Blaise Pascal reasoned, history turned on Cleopatra's nose. Stodgier historians like to cite "Cleopatra's nose" as a way of belittling the notion that great events can be traced to trivial sources. Great events must have great causes, they insist. But if it is possible for a b.u.t.terfly's flap to cause a tornado, it is possible for a monkey's bite to cause a war, and the insistence that great events come from great sources is nothing more than a prejudice. The story of Cleopatra's magnificent proboscis may not be true, but Pascal had the right idea.

47. "Projecting the Unknowable" in World Population to 2300, United Nations.

48. Robert Sencourt, "Population and the Future," The Atlantic Monthly, April 1925.

49. Richard Overy, The Twilight Years, 2009.

49. Michael S. Teitelbaum and Jay M. Winter, The Fear of Population Decline, 1985.

49. Overy, The Twilight Years.

49. "The Future of Population" in What the Future Holds, 2002.

49. See America Alone by Mark Steyn for a particularly hysterical example.

50. "Go Forth and Multiply a Lot Less," The Economist, October 31, 2009.

50. Joel Cohen, "The Future of Population" in What the Future Holds. Cohen notes that one researcher found the number was revised up eleven times and down six times, while two others counted thirteen changes up and four down. "Evidently there is some uncertainty about the uncertainty," he dryly concluded.

52. "The Future of Population" in What the Future Holds.

52. Jack Davis, "Why Bad Things Happen to Good a.n.a.lysts" in Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce, eds., a.n.a.lyzing Intelligence, 2008.

53. Charles Kurzman, The Unthinkable Revolution in Iran, 2005.

55. Clark C. Abt, "The Future of Energy" in What the Future Holds, 2002.

55. Noel Grove, "Oil, the Dwindling Treasure," National Geographic, June 1974.

56. Energy: Global Prospects 1985-2000, Workshop on Alternative Energy Strategies, 1977.

56. Na.s.sim Taleb, The Black Swan, 2007.

56. "Forbes Predicts Oil Will Drop to $35 Within a Year," Daily Telegraph, August 31, 2005.

56. "Oil's End," New York Times, March 5, 2008.

57. David Olive, Toronto Star, July 27, 2009.

57. "Warning: Oil Supplies Are Running Out Fast," The Independent, August 3, 2009.

57. COMPAS Inc., June 8, 2009.

CHAPTER 3.

Page 59. All biographical details from William H. McNeill, Arnold J. Toynbee: A Life, 1989.

59. Arnold J. Toynbee, "What the Book Is For," reprinted in Ashley Montagu, ed., Toynbee and History, 1956.

60. Quoted in Arnold J. Toynbee: A Life.

62. "Testing the Toynbee System" in Toynbee and History.

62. "Much Learning . . ." in Toynbee and History.

62. Quoted in "Herr Spengler and Mr. Toynbee," H. Mich.e.l.l, Toynbee and History.

64. Time, April 20, 1953.

64. "The Napoleon of Notting Hill" in Toynbee and History.

65. "The Menace of Overpopulation" in Fairfield Osborn, ed., Our Crowded Planet, 1962.

66. A very generous observer might argue that the global preeminence of the United States, particularly as it existed in 2002, is akin to a "universal state." I don't think that's reasonable. Toynbee's conception of a universal state is literal, and no matter how powerful the United States was, and is, it is not a literal empire-a fact amply demonstrated in 2002, when the U.S. government exerted all the pressure it could muster on foreign governments to support its invasion of Iraq. Most refused. Even Canada and Mexico balked. The United States may have been the world's sole superpower, but it was not its governor.

66. Time, November 17, 1952.

66. Arnold Toynbee, "Is a World-Wide State Feasible?" in Change and Habit: The Challenge of Our Time, 1992.

66. Arnold Toynbee and Kei Wakaizumi, Surviving the Future, 1971.

69. Gary Marcus, Kluge: The Haphazard Construction of the Human Mind, 2008.

71. "Want to Keep Your Wallet? Carry a Baby Picture," The Times, July 11, 2009.

71. "Inferential Correction" in Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman, eds., Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, 2002.

72. Paul Rozin and Carol Nemeroff, "Sympathetic Magical Thinking" in Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment.

72. Researchers even found that the accuracy of people throwing darts at a dartboard significantly declines when the board has a photo of a baby pinned to it.

74. Laura A. King, Chad M. Burton, Joshua A. Hicks, and Stephen M. Drigotas, "Ghosts, UFOs, and Magic: Positive Affect and the Experiential System," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, vol. 92, no. 5, 2007.

74. See, for example, "Impressions of Baby-Faced Adults," Leslie Z. McArthur and Karen Apatow, Social Cognition, 1983. Baby faces have even been found to have an influence on the outcome of small-claims cases: Leslie A. Zebrowitz and Susan M. McDonald, "The Impact of Litigants' Baby-facedness and Attractiveness on Adjudications in Small Claims Court," Law and Human Behavior, December 1991.

74. The original calculation can be read at www.actuaries.org.uk/__data/a.s.sets/pdf_file/0016/26053/0481.pdf.

75. "His Heart Belongs to (Adorable) iPod," New York Times, October 19, 2006.

75. J. M. Henslin, "c.r.a.ps and Magic," American Journal of Sociology, 1967.

76. Ellen J. Langer, "The Illusion of Control," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1975.

76. "Heads I Win, Tails It's Chance," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1975.

77. Paul K. Presson and Victor A. Bena.s.si, "Illusion of Control: A Meta-a.n.a.lytic Review," Journal of Social Behavior and Personality, 1996.

77. "Bull in Bull Markets," Forbes, April 6, 1987.

78. Richard Dawkins, Unweaving the Rainbow, 2000.

80. George Wolford, Michael B. Miller, and Michael Gazzaniga, "The Left Hemisphere's Role in Hypothesis Formation," The Journal of Neuroscience, 2000.

81. Michael Gazzaniga, The Mind's Past, 1998.

82. The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, June 23, 1999.

83. Baruch Fischhoff, Paul Slovic, and Sarah Lichtenstein, "Knowing with Certainty: The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence," Journal of Experimental Psychology, 1977.

83. Sarah Lichtenstein, Baruch Fischhoff, and Lawrence D. Phillips, "Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art to 1980" in Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, 1982. Also Max Henrion and Baruch Fischhoff, "a.s.sessing Uncertainty in Physical Constant," American Journal of Physics, 1986.

83. Craig R. M. McKenzie, Michael J. Liersch, and Ilan Yaniv, "Overconfidence in Interval Estimates: What Does Expertise Buy You?" Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2008.

83. Stuart Oskamp, "Overconfidence in Case-Study Judgments" in Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, 1982.

83. Claire I. Tsai, Joshua Klayman, and Reid Hastie, "Effects of Amount of Information on Judgment Accuracy and Confidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2008.

85. Charles G. Lord, Lee Ross, and Mark R. Lepper, "Biased a.s.similation and Att.i.tude Polarization: The Effects of Prior Theories on Subsequently Considered Evidence," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1979.

85. Raymond J. Nickerson, "Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises," Review of General Psychology, 1998.

86. Michael J. Mahoney, "Publication Prejudices: An Experimental Study of Confirmatory Bias in the Peer Review System," Cognitive Therapy and Research, 1977.

86. R. G. Collingwood, The Idea of History, 2005.

87. A. J. P. Taylor, "Much Learning . . ." in Toynbee and History.

CHAPTER 4.

Page 91. "Geopolitical Thoughts: Requiem for the American Empire," The Nation, January 11, 1986.

92. Robert Reich, "Is j.a.pan Out to Get Us?" New York Times, February 9, 1992.

93. Also in the early 1990s, Thurow predicted that the value of natural resources, which had fallen substantially over the previous twenty years, would continue to fall for another twenty years. Nations will not "be rich on the basis of natural resources" in the future, Thurow said in 1991 at a major conference of the Liberal Party of Canada. This was a big worry for Canadians, as the Canadian economy was heavily dependent on the country's huge natural resource base. But Thurow was wrong. The price of most natural resources soared in the first decade of the twenty-first century and Canada made a killing. See David Crane, "Canada Given Stern Warning."

94. Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, 1988.

94. Ignacio Ramonet, "Lessons of a Non-war," Le Monde diplomatique, March 1, 1998.

95. World Development Indicators, World Bank.

96. Marguerite Kramer and Bruce Russett, "Images of World Futures," Journal of Peace Research, 1984.

99. Deutsche Bank Research, "Global Growth Centres 2020," March 23, 2005.

104. Dan Gardner, Risk, 2008.

105. Ca.s.s R. Sunstein, Risk and Reason, 2002.

106. John S. Carroll, "The Effect of Imagining an Event on Expectations for the Event: An Interpretation in Terms of the Availability Heuristic," Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 1978.

107. "Challenging the Crowd in Whispers, Not Shouts," New York Times, November 1, 2008.

108. Robert S. Baron, Joseph A. Vandello, and Bethany Brunsman, "The Forgotten Variable in Conformity Research: Impact of Task Importance on Social Influence," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1996.

110. Sam Cole, "The Zeitgeist of Futures?" Futures, August 2008.