112. Derek J. Koehler, "Explanation, Imagination, and Confidence in Judgment," Psychological Bulletin, 1991; Steven J. Sherman, Robert B. Cialdini, Donna F. Schwartzman, and Kim D. Reynolds, "Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived Likelihood of Contracting a Disease: The Mediating Effect of Ease of Imagery," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 1985.

114. See, for example, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, "Forecasting and Scenario Planning: The Challenges of Uncertainty and Complexity," in Derek Koehler and Nigel Harvey, eds., Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, 2007.

116. Robert Fogel, Foreign Policy, January/February 2010.

117. David M. Levy and Sandra J. Peart, "Soviet Growth in American Textbooks," December 3, 2009, http://ssrn.com/abstract=1517983.

CHAPTER 5.

Page 119. Tom Morgenthau, Newsweek, July 2, 1979.

119. Daniel Horowitz, Jimmy Carter and the Energy Crisis of the 1970s, 2005.

119. Kevin Mattson, What the Heck Are You Up To, Mr. President? 2009; Bruce J. Schulman, The Seventies.

123. Mattson, What the Heck Are You Up To, Mr. President?

123. Schulman, The Seventies: The Great Shift in American Culture, Society, and Politics.

124. The Public Perspective, The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, April/May 1997.

125. New York Times, January 4, 1981.

125. The Public Perspective.

125. Time, July 6, 1981.

125. Interview with author, Ottawa Citizen, January 18, 2004.

126. Leonard Silk, "A World Depression?" New York Times, June 18, 1974.

126. "The End of an Era," New York Review of Books, June 27, 1974.

128. Schulman, The Seventies: The Great Shift in American Culture, Society, and Politics.

129. New York Times, April 22, 2008.

129. "Follow-up on the News," New York Times, October 19, 1975.

130. "Nearing the Limits: II," New York Times, October 4, 1973.

131. "Rome: Can the World Organize to Save Itself?" New York Times, November 10, 1974, and "On the State of Man," November 4, 1974.

132. "Population Control of Hobson's Choice" in L. R. Taylor, ed., The Optimum Population for Britain, 1969.

132. "Four Pressing Problems Shape Global Crisis," Salt Lake Tribune, December 8, 1974.

133. Independent Commission on International Development Issues (the Brandt Commission), North-South: A Program for Survival, 1980.

134. Ellen Langer and Judith Rodin, "Long-term Effects of a Control-Relevant Intervention with the Inst.i.tutionalized Aged," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1977.

134. See, for example, Sir Michael Marmot's "Whitehall" studies of British civil servants, which found that those who felt they had no control at work were substantially more likely to develop heart disease. Also, James Geer and Gerald Davison, "Reductions of Stress in Humans Through Nonveridical Perceived Control of Aversive Stimulation," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, December 1970.

135. Arnoud Arntz, Marleen van Eck, and Peter de Jong, "Unpredictable Sudden Increases in Intensity of Pain and Acquired Fear," Journal of Psychophysiology, 1992.

135. Quoted in John Conroy, Unspeakable Acts, Ordinary People, 2000.

136. B. Malinowski, Magic, Science, and Religion, 1954.

136. Gioria Keinan, "Effects of Stress and Tolerance of Ambiguity on Magical Thinking," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1994.

136. Gioria Keinan, "The Effects of Stress and Desire for Control on Superst.i.tious Behavior," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 2002.

136. Jennifer A. Whitson and Adam D. Galinsky, "Lacking Control Increases Illusory Pattern Perception," Science, October 3, 2008.

136. "Sporting Rituals," British Psychological a.s.sociation Research Digest, October 5, 2009.

136. Michaela C. Schippers and Paul A. M. Van Lange, "The Psychological Benefits of Superst.i.tious Rituals in Top Sport: A Study Among Top Sportspersons," Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 2006.

137. Stephen M. Sales, "Threat as a Factor in Authoritarianism: An a.n.a.lysis of Archival Data," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1973.

137. Vernon R. Padgett and Dale O. Jorgenson, "Superst.i.tion and Economic Threat," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 1982.

137. Stewart J. H. McCann, "Threatening Times and Fluctuations in American Church Memberships," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 1999.

138. Schulman, The Seventies: The Great Shift in American Culture, Society, and Politics.

138. George Johnson, "A Menace or Just a Crank?," New York Times, June 18, 1989.

139. "What You Don't Know Makes You Nervous," New York Times, May 20, 2009.

140. Roy F. Baumeister, Ellen Bratslavsky, Catrin Finkenauer, and Kathleen D. Vohs, "Bad Is Stronger Than Good," Review of General Psychology, 2001.

142. "Portrait of the 1980s," New York Times, December 24, 1989.

CHAPTER 6.

Page 143. "My Media: Norman Lamont," The Guardian, October 11, 1999.

150. Donald H. Naftulin, John E. Ware, and Frank A. Donnelly, "The Dr. Fox Lecture: A Paradigm of Education Seduction," Journal of Medical Education, July 1973.

150. M. Lefkowitz, R. R. Blake, and J. S. Mouton, "Status Factors in Pedestrian Violations of Traffic Signals," Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 1955.

150. "The Perceptual Distortion of Height as a Function of Ascribed Social Status," Journal of Social Psychology, 1968.

151. Stanley Milgram, Obedience to Authority, 1974.

151. C. K. Holfling et al., "An Experimental Study of Nurse-Physician Relationships," Journal of Nervous and Mental Diseases, 1966.

151. Robert Cialdini, Influence, 1984.

151. If the reader is wondering, yes, I am guilty of doing this myself. It's hard not to be impressed by the aura of a great university, or to make use of it.

153. Wendy M. Williams and Stephen J. Ceci, "'How'm I Doing?' Problems with Student Ratings of Instructors and Courses," Change Magazine, September/October 1997.

153. Harvey London, Philip J. Meldman, and A. Van C. Lanckton, "The Jury Method: How the Persuader Persuades," Public Opinion Quarterly, 1970.

153. P. Zarnoth and J. A. Sniezek, "The Social Influence of Confidence in Group Decision Making," Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 1997.

153. Brian L. Cutler, Steven D. Penrod, and Thomas E. Stuve, "Juror Decision Making in Eyewitness Identification Cases," Law and Human Behavior, 1988.

153. Paul C. Price and Eric R. Stone, "Intuitive Evaluation of Likelihood Judgment Producers: Evidence for a Confidence Heuristic," Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2004.

154. J. F. Yates, P. C. Price, J. Lee, and J. Ramirez, "Good Probabilistic Forecasters: The 'Consumer's' Perspective," International Journal of Forecasting, 1996.

154. Yates et al., "Good Probabilistic Forecasters: The 'Consumer's' Perspective"; Price and Stone, "Intuitive Evaluation of Likelihood Judgment Producers: Evidence for a Confidence Heuristic," Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, January 2004.

155. "My Media: Norman Lamont." The columnist in question was Lord William Rees-Mogg.

156. Joseph R. Radzevick and Don A. Moore, "Competing to Be Certain (But Wrong): Social Pressure and Overprecision in Judgment," January 14, 2009, draft, in press.

158. Yates et al., "Good Probabilistic Forecasters: The 'Consumer's' Perspective."

163. Pierre Desrochers and Christine Hoffbauer, "The Post War Intellectual Roots of the Population Bomb," Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development, 2009.

164. "Paul Ehrlich: Crusading Now to Change the Future," St. Petersburg Times, March 7, 1970.

165. Stuart Blackman, "Promises, Promises." The Scientist, vol. 23, no. 11, 2009.

165. Robert Lempert, "Can Scenarios Help Policymakers?" in Blindsided, 2007.

165. Blackman, "Promises, Promises."

166. "A Guessing Game?" Online NewsHour, PBS, June 23, 1999.

166. Paul Wells, "Wells's Rules, Annotated," Inkless Wells (blog on www.macleans.ca), May 21, 2009.

167. National Research Council, Severe s.p.a.ce Weather Events-Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts Workshop Report, 2008.

167. Michael Brooks, "Gone in 90 Seconds," New Scientist, March 21, 2009.

168. Nick Davies, Flat Earth News, 2008.

169. See www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/Papers/y2k.html for the original paper and the media release.

170. Michael Lind, "Shocking News: The World Is Stable!" Salon, December 8, 2009.

171. http://web.archive.org/web/20010211165926/kunstler.com/mags_y2k.html.

172. Weekly Standard, March 17, 2003.

172. Weekly Standard, March 17, 2003.

172. The Guardian, November 21, 2006.

175. Glen McGregor, "Web Disaster Prophecy a High School Project," Ottawa Citizen, September 14, 2001.

175. And it continues. Despite the indisputable origins of the verse, and the dedicated efforts of debunking Web sites, Marshall's words continue to be cited in cybers.p.a.ce as proof of Nostradamus's dazzling powers.

176. See www.skepdic.com/dixon.html.

177. "Not with a Bang but a Gasp," New York Times, December 15, 1969.

178. "On the State of Man," New York Times, November 4, 1975.

178. Robert Paarlberg, Starved for Science, 2008.

178. "Ignore All the Iran Experts," Foreign Policy, June 2009.

178. Davies, Flat Earth News.

178. "The Coming Oil Crisis," Newsweek, June 29, 2009.

179. "Rubin, Oil Predictor, Sees $100 Crude in 2010," BusinessWeek, January 7, 2010.

179. "Economist Predicts $1.50 a Litre for Gasoline," Toronto Star, January 11, 2008.

179. Two books that appeared in the same period were Dow 40,000 by David Elias and Dow 100,000 by Charles Kadlec.

183. Personal correspondence with the author.

184. "Bertram R. Forer, "The Fallacy of Personal Validation: A Cla.s.sroom Demonstration of Gullibility," Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 1949.

185. John Durant, Predictions: Pictorial Predictions from the Past, 1956.

186. "Not with a Bang but a Gasp."