Lowell's investigation, which is discussed in later paragraphs, also bears directly on the question of the relation between college entrance records, college grades, and later work in professional schools. A rather different method of procedure was adopted by Van Denburg, who studied the relation between the first-term marks of high school pupils in New York City and the length of time the pupils continued in school work. The following table gives a general idea of his results:

TABLE 12

SHOWING THE RELATION BETWEEN FIRST-TERM MARKS IN HIGH SCHOOL AND THE LENGTH OF TIME PUPILS REMAIN IN SCHOOL (VAN DENBURG)

------------------------------------------------------------

Percentage Leaving School in Various Years After

Entrance into the High School First-Term

------------------------------------------------ Mark

Left

Left in 2nd, 3rd, or

During First

4th Years, or Failed

Graduated

Year

to Graduate in 4th

-----------+-------------+--------------------+------------- Below 50%

61

39

0 50 to 59%

49

46

5 60 to 69%

39

58

3 70 to 79%

20

62

18 80 to 89%

17

46

37 90 to 100%

6

40

54 ------------------------------------------------------------

Thorndike, in referring to the significance of such results, says: "Ten times as many of those marked below 50 leave in the first year as of those marked 90 or above. Of 115 pupils marked below 50 not one remained to graduate in four years. As the marks rise the percentage leaving in the early years steadily falls and the percentage graduating rises. Such prophecies... could easily be worked out for any community. They show that in the important matter of the length of stay in school a pupil's career is far from being a matter of unpredictable fortuity.... It will not be long before [we] will remember with amus.e.m.e.nt the time when education waited for the expensive tests of actual trial to tell how well a boy or girl would succeed with a given trade, with the work of college and professional school, or with the general task of leading a decent, law-abiding, humane life."

Prompted by Dearborn's study of the relation between work in high school and work in the university, Smith made a somewhat more intensive study of a group of students in the University of Iowa. Dearborn had investigated the academic careers of pupils from eight large and four small high schools in Wisconsin, and concluded that three-fourths of the students entering the university from these high schools would maintain throughout the university approximately the same rank as they had held in high school. When the groups were divided into upper and lower halves, about seventy per cent of those in the upper high school section were found in the upper half of the university section; about the same number of those in the lower high school half were found in the lower university half.

Smith's data showed almost precisely the same figures as those of Dearborn.

From the Liberal Arts cla.s.s of 1910 (one hundred and sixty students) those were chosen whose records were complete in both high school and university.

This gave a total of one hundred and twenty students. On the basis of their standing, as based on the grades a.s.signed in all subjects studied, they were ranked in order for each year of high school and university. They were then separated into quintiles on the basis of these rankings, and their standing in these various quintiles observed from year to year.

When the students, on the basis of their general high school average (for the four years), are distributed through their respective quintiles in the university (general average again) the results are as shown in the table on page 183.

TABLE 13

SHOWING THE RELATIONS BETWEEN HIGH SCHOOL RECORDS AND UNIVERSITY RECORDS (SMITH). _See Text for Explanation_

------------------------------------------------

University Average H. S. Average

----------------------------------

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Quint.

Quint.

Quint.

Quint.

Quint.

-------------+------+------+------+------+------ 1st Quintile

54%

17%

17%

4%

8% 2nd Quintile

25%

29%

17%

13%

16% 3rd Quintile

17%

25%

20%

21%

17% 4th Quintile

0%

25%

25%

33%

17% 5th Quintile

4%

4%

21%

29%

42% ------------------------------------------------

In considering this table it is apparent that if the high school students were distributed through the various university quintiles on a purely chance basis, and without any reference to their high school records, there would tend to be twenty per cent of each high school quintile in each of the university quintiles. Any percentage higher than this twenty per cent thus indicates some significant relation between the two sets of grades. On the whole there is a close relation indicated. The tendency is clear for those in a given high school quintile to be found in or near the same quintile in their university work. The relation is particularly close in the highest and lowest quintiles. In the intermediate quintiles there is more or less shifting about.

In the same way it is possible to cla.s.sify all students in quintiles during their first high school year, and then to trace their careers through the following three years of high school and four years of college. The following tabulation shows the results when this was done. The figures show the percentage of each quintile in first year high school who were found in the same quintile in the various later years.

TABLE 14

SHOWING THE RELATION BETWEEN RECORDS IN THE FIRST HIGH SCHOOL YEAR, AND RECORDS IN SUBSEQUENT YEARS IN HIGH SCHOOL AND COLLEGE (SMITH)

---------------------------------------------------------

High School

University Quintiles

-----------------------

-----------------------

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4 ---------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----- First

100%

70%

67%

67%

52%

36%

43%

25% Second

100%

54%

33%

29%

35%

33%

22%

8% Third

100%

41%

37%

21%

35%

20%

22%

21% Fourth

100%

29%

25%

21%

48%

28%

17%

25% Fifth

100%

50%

59%

50%

45%

32%

39%

38%

-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----- Averages

100%

49%

44%

38%

43%

30%

29%

23% ---------------------------------------------------------

Here again, if the subsequent distributions were on a chance basis with respect to the first year high school grades, there would tend to be but twenty per cent in each of the various quintiles. As a matter of fact, the percentages never fall so low as twenty per cent, although in the senior college year they approach very close to this figure.

It is to be noted that changes so small as from one quintile to the immediately adjacent one are not taken into account in this table. The figures show only those who were in precisely the same quintile all the way through. The indication is then that a student's performance in the first high school year is very significant of what his performance will be through the rest of the high school course, and also of significance with respect to what he will do in his university work. The significance of the early work, as has appeared in other studies also, becomes less and less the farther through the course one goes, so that in the senior year in college there is approximately a chance distribution with reference to the work of the first year high school.

Smith also presents his results in the form of coefficients of correlation between various rankings. The following are the most interesting in the present connection:

TABLE 15

CORRELATIONS (SMITH)

H. S. Average and Univ. Freshman Average .48 H. S. Average and Univ. Soph.o.m.ore Average .39 H. S. Average and Univ. Junior Average .47 H. S. Average and Univ. Senior Average .28 1st and 2nd Year High School .77 1st and 3rd Year High School .67 1st and 4th Year High School .66 University Freshman and Soph.o.m.ore .73 University Freshman and Junior .61 University Freshman and Senior .45

These figures of course indicate the same facts as those derived from the previous methods of expressing the data. The high school (H. S.) average correlates throughout with the college ranking, the correspondence becoming less apparent in the later college years. Similarly, the good students in the first high school year are the good ones all through the high school course, and the able college freshmen are able as soph.o.m.ores, juniors and seniors. But both in high school and in college the significance of early standing becomes less and less as the years progress.

A. L. Jones[13] compared college entrance examinations with work done later in the college course, in the freshman and soph.o.m.ore years. Two hundred men from the entering cla.s.ses of 1907, 1911 and 1912, in Columbia College, were selected for study. These men were arranged in four groups, fifty in each group, on the basis of (a) their marks in entrance examinations, (b) their college marks in the first and second college years. Group I contains the best fifty individuals, Group II the fifty next best, etc. The following compiled table shows where the members of each group in entrance examinations stood in their college work:

TABLE 16

SHOWING RELATIONS BETWEEN ENTRANCE RECORDS AND COLLEGE STANDING (JONES)

See Text for Explanation

-------------------------------------------------------------

On Basis of Freshman Ranking On Basis of Entrance

--------------------------------------- Examinations

Group I

Group II

Group III

Group IV ---------------------+---------+---------+---------+--------- Group I (50 men)

30

13

5

2 Group II (50 men)

16

17

12

5 Group III (50 men)

3

13

16

18 Group IV (50 men)

1

7

17

25 ---------------------+--------------------------------------- On Basis of Entrance

Examinations

On Basis of Soph.o.m.ore Ranking ---------------------+---------+---------+---------+--------- Group I (13 men)

7

4

2

0 Group II (13 men)

4

5

2

2 Group III (13 men)

2

4

3

4 Group IV (14 men)

0

0

6

8 -------------------------------------------------------------

It appears from this table that there is a fairly well-marked tendency for the men to remain in the group in which they start. At least the larger number of men are found in college in about the same group in which they occurred on the basis of entrance examinations. Jones writes, "It is evident from an examination of these... data that entrance examinations, aside from other important uses claimed for them by their advocates, may fitly be taken as an important indication of the future career of the candidate for admission. They should of course be supplemented, and so should any other means of determining preparation for college. Those who have studied the question tell us that there is a high degree of correlation between intellectual qualities and others. A good test of intellectual fitness is, therefore, in some degree a test of other qualities also. Entrance examinations have their imperfections but there can be no doubt that they may serve as a solid foundation on which to build."

Thorndike, on the other hand, in studying the relation between entrance marks and later college standing (Columbia College cla.s.ses entering in 1901, 1902 and 1903), finds results which lead him to say, "The important facts concerning the relationship of success in entrance examinations to success in college work... prove that we cannot estimate the latter from the former with enough accuracy to make the entrance examinations worth taking or to prevent gross and intolerable injustice being done to many individuals.... The records of eleven entrance examinations give a less accurate prophecy of what a student will do in the latter half of his college course than does the college record of his brother! The correlation between brothers in intellectual ability is approximately .40, but that between standing in entrance examinations and standing in college of the same person is only .47 for junior year (130 cases) and .25 for senior year (56 cases).... From many facts such as these... it is certain that the traditional entrance examinations, even when as fully safeguarded as in the case of those given by the College Entrance Examination Board, do not prevent incompetence from getting into college; do not prevent students of excellent promise from being discouraged or barred out altogether; do not measure fitness for college well enough to earn the respect of students or teachers; and do intolerable injustice to individuals."

The apparent striking contradiction between these two reports is not, however, so serious when it is noted that the records of Jones were taken from freshman and soph.o.m.ore years, while Thorndike's, as here quoted, were taken from junior and senior years. Thorndike has also presented, in another connection, comparisons of entrance examinations with the work of freshman and soph.o.m.ore years, and in these cases his correlations are considerably higher, more nearly approximating the results of Jones. The correlations, for the four college years, were as follows: freshman year, .62; soph.o.m.ore year, .50; junior year, .47; senior year, .25.

Apparently the only safe conclusion at present is that the entrance examinations are fairly useful in predicting the early college work, their prognostic value becoming less and less as the interval between the two measures is increased. This result is of course to be expected. In another section of this book occasion is taken to show that preliminary trials are of little value in indicating the relative abilities of individuals when they have reached or approximated their limit of practice.

_II. Are the school subjects in which one is most interested in any way an indication of the interests and values of later life? What, in general, are the facts concerning the permanence of interests and the relation between interest and ability?_ These questions are of immediate interest to parents, teachers and vocational counsellors.

Here again we must turn to the work of Thorndike for almost the only available information, and even this is only preliminary and tentative, the results being subject to various sources of error. This investigator studied the interests and abilities in mathematics, history, literature, science, music, drawing and manual work. The original records are the judgments of one hundred individuals concerning the order of their own interests and abilities in these subjects at each of three periods in their school career, elementary school, high school and college. These various judgments having been made as conscientiously as possible, correlations were determined between interests at different times, interests and abilities, etc.

Individual relative interests at different times, according to these records, do not vary according to mere caprice. "A correlation of .60 or .70 seems to be approximately the true degree of resemblance between the relative degree of an interest in a child of from ten to fourteen and the same person at twenty-one." The resemblance between ability in elementary years and ability in college is found to be .65. The correlation between interest in the last three years of elementary school and capacity in the college period is computed to be about .60. This would mean that the early interest would serve as a useful indicator of adult capacity. "The correlation between an individual's order of subjects for interest and his order for ability is one of the closest of any that are known (about .90)."

"A person's relative interests are an extraordinarily accurate symptom of his relative capacities."

In concluding his report Thorndike writes, "Interests are shown to be [not only permanent but also] symptomatic, to a very great extent, of present and future capacity or ability. Either because one likes what he can do well, or because one gives zeal and effort to what he likes, or because interest and ability are both symptoms of some fundamental feature of the individual's original nature, or because of the combined action of all three of these factors, interest and ability are bound very close together.

The bond is so close that either may be used as a symptom for the other almost as well as for itself. The importance of these facts for the whole field of practice with respect to early diagnosis, vocational guidance, the work of social secretaries, deans, advisers, and others who direct students' choices of schools, studies, and careers is obvious. They should be taken account of in such practice until they are verified or modified by data obtained by a better method; and such data should soon be collected.

The better method is, of course, to get the measurements of relative interest and of relative ability, not from memory, but at the time, and not from individuals' reports alone, but by objective tests."

_III. Is there any relation between general or particular academic apt.i.tude or inclination and general or particular proficiency in the later domestic, industrial, commercial, professional or civic activities?_ This question is of importance not only to the individual and his guide but also to employers, agencies and society at large.

An interesting and significant study bearing on this question has been reported by Nicholson, who investigated the relation between academic success and prominence in later life. The men graduating from Wesleyan University during the years 1833 to 1899, 1,667 in number, were arranged in three groups. In the first group were the 140 "honor" men, who were valedictorians or salutatorians of their cla.s.ses. In the second group were placed all the men elected to Phi Beta Kappa, on the basis of high scholarship. Of these there were 461. In the third group were placed the remaining 1,206 men. It was then determined how many of these men were found in the current edition of _Who's Who_, or were judged, by faculty or fellow students, as having been or about to be of sufficient distinction to be included in such a directory. The results are given in the following tabulation.

TABLE 17

SHOWING THE RELATION BETWEEN COLLEGE HONORS AND INCLUSION IN _Who's Who_ (NICHOLSON)

See Text for Explanation

--------------------------------------------------------- 643 Students, of the

Per Cent Judged by Faculty to years 1833-1859

be of _Who's Who_ Rank ---------------------+----------------------------------- Honor Men (53)

50 P.B.K. Men (167)

32 Remainder (476)

6 ---------------------+----------------------------------- 604 Students of the

Per Cent Found in 1914-15 Years 1860-1889

Edition of _Who's Who_ ---------------------+----------------------------------- Honor Men (59)

48 P.B.K. Men (185)

31 Remainder (419)

10 ---------------------+----------------------------------- 420 Students of the

Per Cent in Who's Who or Judged by Years 1890-1899

Cla.s.smates as about to be There.

---------------------+----------------------------------- Honor Men (28)

50 P.B.K. Men (109)

30 Remainder (311)

11 ---------------------+----------------------------------- Total of 1667

Per Cent with Distinction Ent.i.tling Students

to Inclusion in _Who's Who_.

---------------------+----------------------------------- Honor Men (140)

50 P.B.K. Men (461)

31 Remainder (1206)

9 ---------------------------------------------------------

Referring to these results, Nicholson remarks, "From this study of the careers of sixteen hundred and sixty-seven graduates, living and dead, where three different methods are employed in determining distinction in after life, it appears that the results are fairly constant, and we are justified in a.s.suming that, for this college at least, the chances of distinction for a high honor graduate, one of the two or three leading scholars of the cla.s.s, are just even; that one out of three of those elected to Phi Beta Kappa is likely to achieve p.r.o.nounced success in life; and that each of the remaining members of the cla.s.s has less than one chance in ten to become famous. In other words, roughly speaking, the quarter (or the fifth) of the cla.s.s elected to Phi Beta Kappa are likely to supply just as many distinguished men as are the remaining three-quarters (now four-fifths) of the cla.s.s."

The study of Nicholson includes only that type of success which would be likely to lead to inclusion in _Who's Who_, viz., the more strictly literary, professional, political, and academic success. The commercial, industrial and business careers are not so likely to lead to inclusion in this directory, and yet success in them is no less definite than in the professional work. It is rather difficult to determine the degree to which success in these fields is determined by ability alone, and to what degree it is a function of chance, inheritance, social charm, prestige, and geographical and economic circ.u.mstance. Nevertheless it would be interesting to know whether such measure of success as can be secured correlates in any way with success in the work of school years.