Notes.

Prologue: The Power of Ideas 1. 1. My mother is a talented artist specializing in watercolor paintings. My father was a noted musician, conductor of the Bell Symphony, founder and former chairman of the Queensborough College Music Department. My mother is a talented artist specializing in watercolor paintings. My father was a noted musician, conductor of the Bell Symphony, founder and former chairman of the Queensborough College Music Department.

2. 2. The Tom Swift Jr. series, which was launched in 1954 by Grosset and Dunlap and written by a series of authors under the pseudonym Victor Appleton, continued until 1971. The teenage Tom Swift, along with his pal Bud Barclay, raced around the universe exploring strange places, conquering bad guys, and using exotic gadgets such as house-sized s.p.a.cecraft, a s.p.a.ce station, a flying lab, a cycloplane, an electric hydrolung, a diving seacopter, and a repellatron (which repelled things; underwater, for example, it would repel water, thus forming a bubble in which the boys could live). The Tom Swift Jr. series, which was launched in 1954 by Grosset and Dunlap and written by a series of authors under the pseudonym Victor Appleton, continued until 1971. The teenage Tom Swift, along with his pal Bud Barclay, raced around the universe exploring strange places, conquering bad guys, and using exotic gadgets such as house-sized s.p.a.cecraft, a s.p.a.ce station, a flying lab, a cycloplane, an electric hydrolung, a diving seacopter, and a repellatron (which repelled things; underwater, for example, it would repel water, thus forming a bubble in which the boys could live).

The first nine books in the series are Tom Swift and His Flying Lab Tom Swift and His Flying Lab (1954), (1954), Tom Swift and His Jetmarine Tom Swift and His Jetmarine (1954), (1954), Tom Swift and His Rocket Ship Tom Swift and His Rocket Ship (1954), (1954), Tom Swift and His Giant Robot Tom Swift and His Giant Robot (1954), (1954), Tom Swift and His Atomic Earth Blaster Tom Swift and His Atomic Earth Blaster (1954), (1954), Tom Swift and His Outpost in s.p.a.ce Tom Swift and His Outpost in s.p.a.ce (1955), (1955), Tom Swift and His Diving Seacopter Tom Swift and His Diving Seacopter (1956), (1956), Tom Swift in the Caves of Nuclear Fire Tom Swift in the Caves of Nuclear Fire (1956), (1956), and Tom Swift on the Phantom Satellite and Tom Swift on the Phantom Satellite (1956). (1956).

3. 3. The program was called Select. Students filled out a three-hundred-item questionnaire. The computer software, which contained a database of about two million pieces of information on three thousand colleges, selected six to fifteen schools that matched the student's interests, background, and academic standing. We processed about ten thousand students on our own and then sold the program to the publishing company Harcourt, Brace, and World. The program was called Select. Students filled out a three-hundred-item questionnaire. The computer software, which contained a database of about two million pieces of information on three thousand colleges, selected six to fifteen schools that matched the student's interests, background, and academic standing. We processed about ten thousand students on our own and then sold the program to the publishing company Harcourt, Brace, and World.

4. 4. The Age of Intelligent Machines The Age of Intelligent Machines, published in 1990 by MIT Press, was named Best Computer Science Book by the a.s.sociation of American Publishers. The book explores the development of artificial intelligence and predicts a range of philosophic, social, and economic impacts of intelligent machines. The narrative is complemented by twenty-three articles on AI from thinkers such as Sherry Turkle, Douglas Hofstadter, Marvin Minsky, Seymour Papert, and George Gilder. For the entire text of the book, see http://www.KurzweilAI.net/aim.

5. 5. Key measures of capability (such as price-performance, bandwidth, and capacity) increase by multiples (that is, the measures are multiplied by a factor for each increment of time) rather than being added to linearly. Key measures of capability (such as price-performance, bandwidth, and capacity) increase by multiples (that is, the measures are multiplied by a factor for each increment of time) rather than being added to linearly.

6. 6. Douglas R. Hofstadter, Douglas R. Hofstadter, G.o.del; Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid G.o.del; Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid (New York: Basic Books, 1979). (New York: Basic Books, 1979).

Chapter One: The Six Epochs.

1. 1. According to the Transtopia site (http://transtopia.org/faq.html#1.11), "Singularitarian" was "originally defined by Mark Plus ('91) to mean 'one who believes the concept of a Singularity.' " Another definition of this term is " 'Singularity activist' or 'friend of the Singularity'; that is, one who acts so as to bring about a Singularity [Mark Plus, 1991; According to the Transtopia site (http://transtopia.org/faq.html#1.11), "Singularitarian" was "originally defined by Mark Plus ('91) to mean 'one who believes the concept of a Singularity.' " Another definition of this term is " 'Singularity activist' or 'friend of the Singularity'; that is, one who acts so as to bring about a Singularity [Mark Plus, 1991; Singularitarian Principles Singularitarian Principles, Eliezer Yudkowsky, 2000]." There is not universal agreement on this definition, and many Transhumanists are still Singularitarians in the original sense-that is, "believers in the Singularity concept" rather than "activists" or "friends."

Eliezer S. Yudkowsky, in The Singularitarian Principles The Singularitarian Principles, version 1.0.2 (January 1, 2000), http://yudkowsky.net/sing/principles.ext.html, proposed an alternate definition: "A Singularitarian is someone who believes that technologically creating a greater-than-human intelligence is desirable, and who works to that end. A Singularitarian is friend, advocate, defender, and agent of the future known as the Singularity."My view: one can advance the Singularity and in particular make it more likely to represent a constructive advance of knowledge in many ways and in many spheres of human discourse-for example, advancing democracy, combating totalitarian and fundamentalist belief systems and ideologies, and creating knowledge in all of its diverse forms: music, art, literature, science, and technology. I regard a Singularitarian as someone who understands the transformations that are coming in this century and who has reflected on their implications for his or her own life.

2. 2. We will examine the doubling rates of computation in the next chapter. Although the number of transistors per unit cost has doubled every two years, transistors have been getting progressively faster, and there have been many other levels of innovation and improvement. The overall power of computation per unit cost has recently been doubling every year. In particular, the amount of computation (in computations per second) that can be brought to bear to a computer chess machine doubled every year during the 1990s. We will examine the doubling rates of computation in the next chapter. Although the number of transistors per unit cost has doubled every two years, transistors have been getting progressively faster, and there have been many other levels of innovation and improvement. The overall power of computation per unit cost has recently been doubling every year. In particular, the amount of computation (in computations per second) that can be brought to bear to a computer chess machine doubled every year during the 1990s.

3. 3. John von Neumann, paraphrased by Stanislaw Ulam, "Tribute to John von Neumann," John von Neumann, paraphrased by Stanislaw Ulam, "Tribute to John von Neumann," Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society 64.3, pt. 2 (May 1958): 149. Von Neumann (19031957) was born in Budapest into a Jewish banking family and came to Princeton University to teach mathematics in 1930. In 1933 he became one of the six original professors in the new Inst.i.tute for Advanced Study in Princeton, where he stayed until the end of his life. His interests were far ranging: he was the primary force in defining the new field of quantum mechanics; along with coauthor Oskar Morgenstern, he wrote 64.3, pt. 2 (May 1958): 149. Von Neumann (19031957) was born in Budapest into a Jewish banking family and came to Princeton University to teach mathematics in 1930. In 1933 he became one of the six original professors in the new Inst.i.tute for Advanced Study in Princeton, where he stayed until the end of his life. His interests were far ranging: he was the primary force in defining the new field of quantum mechanics; along with coauthor Oskar Morgenstern, he wrote Theory of Games and Economic Behavior Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, a text that transformed the study of economics; and he made significant contributions to the logical design of early computers, including building MANIAC (Mathematical a.n.a.lyzer, Numeral Integrator, and Computer) in the late 1930s.

Here is how Oskar Morgenstern described von Neumann in the obituary "John von Neumann, 19031957," in the Economic Journal Economic Journal (March 1958: 174): "Von Neumann exercised an unusually large influence upon the thought of other men in his personal relations....His stupendous knowledge, the immediate response, the unparalleled intuition held visitors in awe. He would often solve their problems before they had finished stating them. His mind was so unique that some people have asked themselves-they too eminent scientists-whether he did not represent a new stage in human mental development." (March 1958: 174): "Von Neumann exercised an unusually large influence upon the thought of other men in his personal relations....His stupendous knowledge, the immediate response, the unparalleled intuition held visitors in awe. He would often solve their problems before they had finished stating them. His mind was so unique that some people have asked themselves-they too eminent scientists-whether he did not represent a new stage in human mental development."

4. 4. See notes 20 and 21 in chapter 2. See notes 20 and 21 in chapter 2.

5. 5. The conference was held February 1921, 2003, in Monterey, California. Among the topics covered were stem-cell research, biotechnology, nanotechnology, cloning, and genetically modified food. For a list of books recommended by conference speakers, see http://www.thefutureoflife.com/books.htm. The conference was held February 1921, 2003, in Monterey, California. Among the topics covered were stem-cell research, biotechnology, nanotechnology, cloning, and genetically modified food. For a list of books recommended by conference speakers, see http://www.thefutureoflife.com/books.htm.

6. 6. The Internet, as measured by the number of nodes (servers), was doubling every year during the 1980s but was only tens of thousands of nodes in 1985. This grew to tens of millions of nodes by 1995. By January 2003, the Internet Software Consortium (http://www.isc.org/ds/host-count-history.html) counted 172 million Web hosts, which are the servers hosting Web sites. That number represents only a subset of the total number of nodes. The Internet, as measured by the number of nodes (servers), was doubling every year during the 1980s but was only tens of thousands of nodes in 1985. This grew to tens of millions of nodes by 1995. By January 2003, the Internet Software Consortium (http://www.isc.org/ds/host-count-history.html) counted 172 million Web hosts, which are the servers hosting Web sites. That number represents only a subset of the total number of nodes.

7. 7. At the broadest level, the anthropic principle states that the fundamental constants of physics must be compatible with our existence; if they were not, we would not be here to observe them. One of the catalysts for the development of the principle is the study of constants, such as the gravitational constant and the electromagnetic-coupling constant. If the values of these constants were to stray beyond a very narrow range, intelligent life would not be possible in our universe. For example, if the electromagnetic-coupling constant were stronger, there would be no bonding between electrons and other atoms. If it were weaker, electrons could not be held in orbit. In other words, if this single constant strayed outside an extremely narrow range, molecules would not form. Our universe, then, appears to proponents of the anthropic principle to be fine-tuned for the evolution of intelligent life. (Detractors such as Victor Stenger claim the fine-tuning is not so fine after all; there are compensatory mechanisms that would support a wider window for life to form under different conditions.) At the broadest level, the anthropic principle states that the fundamental constants of physics must be compatible with our existence; if they were not, we would not be here to observe them. One of the catalysts for the development of the principle is the study of constants, such as the gravitational constant and the electromagnetic-coupling constant. If the values of these constants were to stray beyond a very narrow range, intelligent life would not be possible in our universe. For example, if the electromagnetic-coupling constant were stronger, there would be no bonding between electrons and other atoms. If it were weaker, electrons could not be held in orbit. In other words, if this single constant strayed outside an extremely narrow range, molecules would not form. Our universe, then, appears to proponents of the anthropic principle to be fine-tuned for the evolution of intelligent life. (Detractors such as Victor Stenger claim the fine-tuning is not so fine after all; there are compensatory mechanisms that would support a wider window for life to form under different conditions.) The anthropic principle comes up again in the context of contemporary cosmology theories that posit multiple universes (see notes 8 and 9, below), each with its own set of laws. Only in a universe in which the laws allowed thinking beings to exist could we be here asking these questions.One of the seminal texts in the discussion is John Barrow and Frank Tipler, The Anthropic Cosmological Principle The Anthropic Cosmological Principle (New York: Oxford University Press, 1988). See also Steven Weinberg, "A Designer Universe?" at http://www.physlink.coml Education/ essay_weinberg.cfm. (New York: Oxford University Press, 1988). See also Steven Weinberg, "A Designer Universe?" at http://www.physlink.coml Education/ essay_weinberg.cfm.

8. 8. According to some cosmological theories, there were multiple big bangs, not one, leading to multiple universes (parallel multiverses or "bubbles"). Different physical constants and forces apply in the different bubbles; conditions in some (or at least one) of these bubbles support carbon-based life. See Max Tegmark, "Parallel Universes," According to some cosmological theories, there were multiple big bangs, not one, leading to multiple universes (parallel multiverses or "bubbles"). Different physical constants and forces apply in the different bubbles; conditions in some (or at least one) of these bubbles support carbon-based life. See Max Tegmark, "Parallel Universes," Scientific American Scientific American (May 2003): 4153; Martin Rees, "Exploring Our Universe and Others," (May 2003): 4153; Martin Rees, "Exploring Our Universe and Others," Scientific American Scientific American (December 1999): 7883; Andrei Linde, "The Self-Reproducing Inflationary Universe," (December 1999): 7883; Andrei Linde, "The Self-Reproducing Inflationary Universe," Scientific American Scientific American (November 1994): 4855. (November 1994): 4855.

9. 9. The "many worlds" or multiverse theory as an interpretation of quantum mechanics was developed to solve a problem presented by quantum mechanics and then has been combined with the anthropic principle. As summarized by Quentin Smith: The "many worlds" or multiverse theory as an interpretation of quantum mechanics was developed to solve a problem presented by quantum mechanics and then has been combined with the anthropic principle. As summarized by Quentin Smith: A serious difficulty a.s.sociated with the conventional or Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics is that it cannot be applied to the general relativity s.p.a.ce-time geometry of a closed universe. A quantum state of such a universe is describable as a wave function with varying spatial-temporal amplitude; the probability of the state of the universe being found at any given point is the square of the amplitude of the wave function at that point. In order for the universe to make the transition from the superposition of many points of varying probabilities to one of these points-the one in which it actually is-a measuring apparatus must be introduced that collapses the wave function and determines the universe to be at that point. But this is impossible, for there is nothing outside the universe, no external measuring apparatus, that can collapse the wave function.A possible solution is to develop an interpretation of quantum mechanics that does not rely on the notion of external observation or measurement that is central to the Copenhagen interpretation. A quantum mechanics can be formulated that is internal to a closed system.It is such an interpretation that Hugh Everett developed in his 1957 paper, "Relative State Formulation of Quantum Mechanics." Each point in the superposition represented by the wave function is regarded as actually containing one state of the observer (or measuring apparatus) and one state of the system being observed. Thus "with each succeeding observation (or interaction), the observer state 'branches' into a number of different states. Each branch represents a different outcome of the measurement and the corresponding eigenstate for the object-system state. All branches exist simultaneously in the superposition after any given sequence of observations."Each branch is causally independent of each other branch, and consequently no observer will ever be aware of any "splitting" process. The world will seem to each observer as it does in fact seem.Applied to the universe as a whole, this means that the universe is regularly dividing into numerous different and causally independent branches, consequent upon the measurement-like interactions among its various parts. Each branch can be regarded as a separate world, with each world constantly splitting into further worlds.Given that these branches-the set of universes-will include ones both suitable and unsuitable for life, Smith continues, "At this point it can be stated how the strong anthropic principle in combination with the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics can be used in an attempt to resolve the apparent problem mentioned at the beginning of this essay. The seemingly problematic fact that a world with intelligent life is actual, rather than one of the many lifeless worlds, is found not to be a fact at all. If worlds with life and without life are both actual, then it is not surprising that this world is actual but is something to be expected."Quentin Smith, "The Anthropic Principle and Many-Worlds Cosmologies," Australasian Journal of Philosophy Australasian Journal of Philosophy 63.3 (September 1985), available at http://www.qsmithwmu.com/the_anthropic_ principle_and_many-worlds_cosmologies.htm. 63.3 (September 1985), available at http://www.qsmithwmu.com/the_anthropic_ principle_and_many-worlds_cosmologies.htm.

10. 10. See chapter 4 for a complete discussion of the brain's self-organizing principles and the relationship of this principle of operation to pattern recognition. See chapter 4 for a complete discussion of the brain's self-organizing principles and the relationship of this principle of operation to pattern recognition.

11. 11. With a "linear" plot (where all graph divisions are equal), it would be impossible to visualize all of the data (such as billions of years) in a limited s.p.a.ce (such as a page of this book). A logarithmic ("log") plot solves that by plotting the order of magnitude of the values rather than the actual values, allowing you to see a wider range of data. With a "linear" plot (where all graph divisions are equal), it would be impossible to visualize all of the data (such as billions of years) in a limited s.p.a.ce (such as a page of this book). A logarithmic ("log") plot solves that by plotting the order of magnitude of the values rather than the actual values, allowing you to see a wider range of data.

12. 12. Theodore Modis, professor at DUXX, Graduate School in Business Leadership in Monterrey, Mexico, attempted to develop a "precise mathematical law that governs the evolution of change and complexity in the Universe." To research the pattern and history of these changes, he required an a.n.a.lytic data set of significant events where the events equate to major change. He did not want to rely solely on his own list, because of selection bias. Instead, he compiled thirteen multiple independent lists of major events in the history of biology and technology from these sources: Theodore Modis, professor at DUXX, Graduate School in Business Leadership in Monterrey, Mexico, attempted to develop a "precise mathematical law that governs the evolution of change and complexity in the Universe." To research the pattern and history of these changes, he required an a.n.a.lytic data set of significant events where the events equate to major change. He did not want to rely solely on his own list, because of selection bias. Instead, he compiled thirteen multiple independent lists of major events in the history of biology and technology from these sources: Carl Sagan, The Dragons of Eden: Speculations on the Evolution of Human Intelligence The Dragons of Eden: Speculations on the Evolution of Human Intelligence (New York: Ballantine Books, 1989). Exact dates provided by Modis. (New York: Ballantine Books, 1989). Exact dates provided by Modis.American Museum of Natural History. Exact dates provided by Modis.The data set "important events in the history of life" in the Encyclopaedia Britannica Encyclopaedia Britannica.Educational Resources in Astronomy and Planetary Science (ERAPS), University of Arizona, http://ethel.as.arizona.edu/~collins/astro/subiects/evolve-26.html.Paul D. Boyer, biochemist, winner of the 1997 n.o.bel Prize, private communication.Exact dates provided by Modis.J. D. Barrow and J. Silk, "The Structure of the Early Universe," Scientific American Scientific American 242.4 (April 1980): 11828. 242.4 (April 1980): 11828.J. Heidmann, Cosmic Odyssey: Observatoir de Paris Cosmic Odyssey: Observatoir de Paris, trans. Simon Mitton (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1989).J.W. Schopf, ed., Major Events in the History of Life Major Events in the History of Life, symposium convened by the IGPP Center for the Study of Evolution and the Origin of Life, 1991 (Boston: Jones and Bartlett, 1991).Phillip Tobias, "Major Events in the History of Mankind," chap. 6 in Schopf, Major Events in the History of Life Major Events in the History of Life.David Nelson, "Lecture on Molecular Evolution I," http://drnelson.utmem.edu/evolution.html, and "Lecture Notes for Evolution II," http://drnelson.utmem.edu/evolution2.html.G. Burenhult, ed., The First Humans: Human Origins and History to 10,000 BC The First Humans: Human Origins and History to 10,000 BC (San Francisco: HarperSanFrancisco, 1993). (San Francisco: HarperSanFrancisco, 1993).D. Johanson and B. Edgar, From Lucy to Language From Lucy to Language (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996). (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996).R. Coren, The Evolutionary Trajectory: The Growth of Information in the History and Future of Earth The Evolutionary Trajectory: The Growth of Information in the History and Future of Earth, World Futures General Evolution Studies (Amsterdam: Gordon and Breach, 1998).

These lists date from the 1980s and 1990s, with most covering the known history of the universe, while three focus on the narrower period of hominoid evolution. The dates used by some of the older lists are imprecise, but it is the events themselves, and the relative locations of these events in history, that are of primary interest.Modis then combined these lists to find cl.u.s.ters of major events, his "canonical milestones." This resulted in 28 canonical milestones from the 203 milestone events in the lists. Modis also used another independent list by Coren as a check to see if it corroborated his methods. See T. Modis, "Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change Technological Forecasting and Social Change 69.4 (2002); http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/tmodis/TedWEB.htm. 69.4 (2002); http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/tmodis/TedWEB.htm.

13. 13. Modis notes that errors can arise from variations in the size of lists and from variations in dates a.s.signed to events (see T. Modis, "The Limits of Complexity and Change," Modis notes that errors can arise from variations in the size of lists and from variations in dates a.s.signed to events (see T. Modis, "The Limits of Complexity and Change," The Futurist The Futurist [MayJune 2003], http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/tmodis/Futurist.pdf). So he used cl.u.s.ters of dates to define his canonical milestones. A milestone represents an average, with known errors a.s.sumed to be the standard deviation. For events without multiple sources, he "arbitrarily a.s.sign[ed] the average error as error." Modis also points out other sources of error-cases where precise dates are unknown or where there is the possibility of inappropriate a.s.sumption of equal importance for each data point-which are not caught in the standard deviation. [MayJune 2003], http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/tmodis/Futurist.pdf). So he used cl.u.s.ters of dates to define his canonical milestones. A milestone represents an average, with known errors a.s.sumed to be the standard deviation. For events without multiple sources, he "arbitrarily a.s.sign[ed] the average error as error." Modis also points out other sources of error-cases where precise dates are unknown or where there is the possibility of inappropriate a.s.sumption of equal importance for each data point-which are not caught in the standard deviation.

Note that Modis's date of 54.6 million years ago for the dinosaur extinction is not far enough back.

14. 14. Typical interneuronal reset times are on the order of five milliseconds, which allows for two hundred digital-controlled a.n.a.log transactions per second. Even accounting for multiple nonlinearities in neuronal information processing, this is on the order of a million times slower than contemporary electronic circuits, which can switch in less than one nanosecond (see the a.n.a.lysis of computational capacity in chapter 2). Typical interneuronal reset times are on the order of five milliseconds, which allows for two hundred digital-controlled a.n.a.log transactions per second. Even accounting for multiple nonlinearities in neuronal information processing, this is on the order of a million times slower than contemporary electronic circuits, which can switch in less than one nanosecond (see the a.n.a.lysis of computational capacity in chapter 2).

15. 15. A new a.n.a.lysis by Los Alamos National Lab researchers of the relative concentrations of radioactive isotopes in the world's only known natural nuclear reactor (at Oklo in Gabon, West Africa) has found a decrease in the fine-structure constant, or alpha (the speed of light is inversely proportional to alpha), over two billion years. That translates into a small increase in the speed of light, although this finding clearly needs to be confirmed. See "Speed of Light May Have Changed Recently," A new a.n.a.lysis by Los Alamos National Lab researchers of the relative concentrations of radioactive isotopes in the world's only known natural nuclear reactor (at Oklo in Gabon, West Africa) has found a decrease in the fine-structure constant, or alpha (the speed of light is inversely proportional to alpha), over two billion years. That translates into a small increase in the speed of light, although this finding clearly needs to be confirmed. See "Speed of Light May Have Changed Recently," New Scientist New Scientist, June 30, 2004, http://www.newscientist.comlnews/news.jsp?id=ns99996092. See also http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/05/050512120842.htm.

16. 16. Stephen Hawking declared at a scientific conference in Dublin on July 21, 2004, that he had been wrong in a controversial a.s.sertion he made thirty years ago about black holes. He had said information about what had been swallowed by a black hole could never be retrieved from it. This would have been a violation of quantum theory, which says that information is preserved. "I'm sorry to disappoint science fiction fans, but if information is preserved there is no possibility of using black holes to travel to other universes," he said. "If you jump into a black hole, your ma.s.s energy will be returned to our universe, but in a mangled form, which contains the information about what you were like, but in an unrecognizable state." See Dennis Overbye, "About Those Fearsome Black Holes? Never Mind," New York Times, July 22, 2004. Stephen Hawking declared at a scientific conference in Dublin on July 21, 2004, that he had been wrong in a controversial a.s.sertion he made thirty years ago about black holes. He had said information about what had been swallowed by a black hole could never be retrieved from it. This would have been a violation of quantum theory, which says that information is preserved. "I'm sorry to disappoint science fiction fans, but if information is preserved there is no possibility of using black holes to travel to other universes," he said. "If you jump into a black hole, your ma.s.s energy will be returned to our universe, but in a mangled form, which contains the information about what you were like, but in an unrecognizable state." See Dennis Overbye, "About Those Fearsome Black Holes? Never Mind," New York Times, July 22, 2004.

17. 17. An event horizon is the outer boundary, or perimeter, of a spherical region surrounding the singularity (the black hole's center, characterized by infinite density and pressure). Inside the event horizon, the effects of gravity are so strong that not even light can escape, although there is radiation emerging from the surface owing to quantum effects that cause particle-antiparticle pairs to form, with one of the pair being pulled into the black hole and the other being emitted as radiation (so-called Hawking radiation). This is the reason why these regions are called "black holes," a term invented by Professor John Wheeler. Although black holes were originally predicted by German astrophysicist Kurt Schwarzschild in 1916 based on Einstein's theory of general relativity, their existence at the centers of galaxies has only recently been experimentally demonstrated. For further reading, see Kimberly Weaver, "The Galactic Odd Couple," http://www.scientificamerican.com. June 10, 2003; Jean-Pierre Lasota, "Unmasking Black Holes," An event horizon is the outer boundary, or perimeter, of a spherical region surrounding the singularity (the black hole's center, characterized by infinite density and pressure). Inside the event horizon, the effects of gravity are so strong that not even light can escape, although there is radiation emerging from the surface owing to quantum effects that cause particle-antiparticle pairs to form, with one of the pair being pulled into the black hole and the other being emitted as radiation (so-called Hawking radiation). This is the reason why these regions are called "black holes," a term invented by Professor John Wheeler. Although black holes were originally predicted by German astrophysicist Kurt Schwarzschild in 1916 based on Einstein's theory of general relativity, their existence at the centers of galaxies has only recently been experimentally demonstrated. For further reading, see Kimberly Weaver, "The Galactic Odd Couple," http://www.scientificamerican.com. June 10, 2003; Jean-Pierre Lasota, "Unmasking Black Holes," Scientific American Scientific American (May 1999): 4147; Stephen Hawking, (May 1999): 4147; Stephen Hawking, A Brief History of Time: From the Big Bang to Black Holes A Brief History of Time: From the Big Bang to Black Holes (New York: Bantam, 1988). (New York: Bantam, 1988).

18. 18. Joel Smoller and Blake Temple, "Shock-Wave Cosmology Inside a Black Hole," Joel Smoller and Blake Temple, "Shock-Wave Cosmology Inside a Black Hole," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100.20 (September 30, 2003): 1121618. 100.20 (September 30, 2003): 1121618.

19. 19. Vernor Vinge, "First Word," Vernor Vinge, "First Word," Omni Omni (January 1983): 10. (January 1983): 10.

20. 20. Ray Kurzweil, Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Intelligent Machines The Age of Intelligent Machines (Cambridge, Ma.s.s.: MIT Press, 1989). (Cambridge, Ma.s.s.: MIT Press, 1989).

21. 21. Hans Moravec, Hans Moravec, Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Cambridge, Ma.s.s.: Harvard University Press, 1988). (Cambridge, Ma.s.s.: Harvard University Press, 1988).

22. 22. Vernor Vinge, "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era," VISION-21 Symposium, sponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aeros.p.a.ce Inst.i.tute, March 1993. The text is available at http://www.KurzweiW.net/vingesing. Vernor Vinge, "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era," VISION-21 Symposium, sponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aeros.p.a.ce Inst.i.tute, March 1993. The text is available at http://www.KurzweiW.net/vingesing.

23. 23. Ray Kurzweil, Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence (New York: Viking, 1999). (New York: Viking, 1999).

24. 24. Hans Moravec, Hans Moravec, Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind (New York: Oxford University Press, 1999). (New York: Oxford University Press, 1999).

25. 25. Damien Broderick, two works: Damien Broderick, two works: The Spike: Accelerating into the Unimaginable Future The Spike: Accelerating into the Unimaginable Future (Sydney, Australia: Reed Books, 1997) and (Sydney, Australia: Reed Books, 1997) and The Spike: How Our Lives Are Being Transformed by Rapidly Advancing Technologies The Spike: How Our Lives Are Being Transformed by Rapidly Advancing Technologies, rev. ed. (New York: Tor/Forge, 2001).

26. 26. One of John Smart's overviews, "What Is the Singularity," can be found at http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0133.html; for a collection of John Smart's writings on technology acceleration, the Singularity, and related issues, see http://www.singularitywatch.com and http://www.Accelerating.org. One of John Smart's overviews, "What Is the Singularity," can be found at http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0133.html; for a collection of John Smart's writings on technology acceleration, the Singularity, and related issues, see http://www.singularitywatch.com and http://www.Accelerating.org.

John Smart runs the "Accelerating Change" conference, which covers issues related to "artificial intelligence and intelligence amplification." See http://www.accelerating.org/ac2005/index.html.

27. 27. An emulation of the human brain running on an electronic system would run much faster than our biological brains. Although human brains benefit from ma.s.sive parallelism (on the order of one hundred trillion interneuronal connections, all potentially operating simultaneously), the reset time of the connections is extremely slow compared to contemporary electronics. An emulation of the human brain running on an electronic system would run much faster than our biological brains. Although human brains benefit from ma.s.sive parallelism (on the order of one hundred trillion interneuronal connections, all potentially operating simultaneously), the reset time of the connections is extremely slow compared to contemporary electronics.

28. 28. See notes 20 and 21 in chapter 2. See notes 20 and 21 in chapter 2.

29. 29. See the appendix, "The Law of Accelerating Returns Revisited," for a mathematical a.n.a.lysis of the exponential growth of information technology as it applies to the price-performance of computation. See the appendix, "The Law of Accelerating Returns Revisited," for a mathematical a.n.a.lysis of the exponential growth of information technology as it applies to the price-performance of computation.

30. 30. In a 1950 paper published in In a 1950 paper published in Mind: A Quarterly Review of Psychology and Philosophy Mind: A Quarterly Review of Psychology and Philosophy, the computer theoretician Alan Turing posed the famous questions "Can a machine think? If a computer could think, how could we tell?" The answer to the second question is the Turing test. As the test is currently defined, an expert committee interrogates a remote correspondent on a wide range of topics such as love, current events, mathematics, philosophy, and the correspondent's personal history to determine whether the correspondent is a computer or a human. The Turing test is intended as a measure of human intelligence; failure to pa.s.s the test does not imply a lack of intelligence. Turing's original article can be found .at http://www.abelard.org/turpap/turpap.htm; see also the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/turing-test, for a discussion of the test.

There is no set of tricks or algorithms that would allow a machine to pa.s.s a properly designed Turing test without actually possessing intelligence at a fully human level. Also see Ray Kurzweil, "A Wager on the Turing Test: Why I Think I Will Win," http://www.KurzweilAI.net/turingwin.

31. 31. See John H. Byrne, "Propagation of the Action Potential," See John H. Byrne, "Propagation of the Action Potential," Neuroscience Online Neuroscience Online, https://oac22.hsc.uth.tmc.edu/courses/nba/s1/i3-1.html: "The propagation velocity of the action potentials in nerves can vary from 100 meters per second (580 miles per hour) to less than a tenth of a meter per second (0.6 miles per hour)."

Also see Kenneth R. Koehler, "The Action Potential," http://www.rwc.uc.edu/koehler/biophys/4d.html: "The speed of propagation for mammalian motor neurons is 10120 m/s, while for nonmyelinated sensory neurons it's about 525 m/s (nonmyelinated neurons fire in a continuous fashion, without the jumps; ion leakage allows effectively complete circuits but slows the rate of propagation)."

32. 32. A 2002 study published in Science highlighted the role of the beta-catenin protein in the horizontal expansion of the cerebral cortex in humans. This protein plays a key role in the folding and grooving of the surface of the cerebral cortex; it is this folding, in fact, that increases the surface area of this part of the brain and makes room for more neurons. Mice that overproduced the protein developed wrinkled, folded cerebral cortexes with substantially more surface area than the smooth, flat cerebral cortexes of control mice. Anjen Chenn and Christopher Walsh, "Regulation of Cerebral Cortical Size by Control of Cell Cycle Exit in Neural Precursors," A 2002 study published in Science highlighted the role of the beta-catenin protein in the horizontal expansion of the cerebral cortex in humans. This protein plays a key role in the folding and grooving of the surface of the cerebral cortex; it is this folding, in fact, that increases the surface area of this part of the brain and makes room for more neurons. Mice that overproduced the protein developed wrinkled, folded cerebral cortexes with substantially more surface area than the smooth, flat cerebral cortexes of control mice. Anjen Chenn and Christopher Walsh, "Regulation of Cerebral Cortical Size by Control of Cell Cycle Exit in Neural Precursors," Science Science 297 (July 2002): 36569. 297 (July 2002): 36569.

A 2003 comparison of cerebral-cortex gene-expression profiles for humans, chimpanzees, and rhesus macaques showed a difference of expression in only ninety-one genes a.s.sociated with brain organization and cognition. The study authors were surprised to find that 90 percent of these differences involved upregulation (higher activity). See M. Cacares et al., "Elevated Gene Expression Levels Distinguish Human from Non-human Primate Brains," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100.22 (October 28, 2003): 1303035. 100.22 (October 28, 2003): 1303035.However, University of California-Irvine College of Medicine researchers have found that gray matter in specific regions in the brain is more related to IQ than is overall brain size and that only about 6 percent of all the gray matter in the brain appears related to IQ. The study also discovered that because these regions related to intelligence are located throughout the brain, a single "intelligence center," such as the frontal lobe, is unlikely. See "Human Intelligence Determined by Volume and Location of Gray Matter Tissue in Brain," University of CaliforniaIrvine news release (July 19, 2004), http://today.uci.edu/news/release_detail.asp?key=1187.A 2004 study found that human nervous system genes displayed accelerated evolution compared with nonhuman primates and that all primates had accelerated evolution compared with other mammals. Steve Dorus et al., "Accelerated Evolution of Nervous System Genes in the Origin of h.o.m.o sapiens h.o.m.o sapiens," Cell Cell 119 (December 29, 2004): 102740. In describing this finding, the lead researcher, Bruce Lahn, states, "Humans evolved their cognitive abilities not due to a few accidental mutations, but rather from an enormous number of mutations acquired through exceptionally intense selection favoring more complex cognitive abilities." Catherine Gianaro, 119 (December 29, 2004): 102740. In describing this finding, the lead researcher, Bruce Lahn, states, "Humans evolved their cognitive abilities not due to a few accidental mutations, but rather from an enormous number of mutations acquired through exceptionally intense selection favoring more complex cognitive abilities." Catherine Gianaro, University of Chicago Chronicle University of Chicago Chronicle 24.7 (January 6, 2005). 24.7 (January 6, 2005).A single mutation to the muscle fiber gene MYH16 has been proposed as one change allowing humans to have much larger brains. The mutation made ancestral humans' jaws weaker, so that humans did not require the brain-size limiting muscle anchors found in other great apes. Stedman et al., "Myosin Gene Mutation Correlates with Anatomical Changes in the Human Lineage," Nature Nature 428 (March 25, 2004): 41518. 428 (March 25, 2004): 41518.

33. 33. Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology: A Mechanical Artificial Red Cell," Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology: A Mechanical Artificial Red Cell," Artificial Cells, Blood Subst.i.tutes, and Immobil. Biotech. Artificial Cells, Blood Subst.i.tutes, and Immobil. Biotech. 26 (1998): 41130; http://www.foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html; see also the Nanomedicine Art Gallery images (http://www.foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Gallery/Species/Respirocytes.html) and award-winning animation (http://www.phleschbubble.com/alb.u.m/beyondhuman/respirocyte01.htm) of the respirocytes. 26 (1998): 41130; http://www.foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html; see also the Nanomedicine Art Gallery images (http://www.foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Gallery/Species/Respirocytes.html) and award-winning animation (http://www.phleschbubble.com/alb.u.m/beyondhuman/respirocyte01.htm) of the respirocytes.

34. 34. Foglets are the conception of the nanotechnology pioneer and Rutgers professor J. Storrs Hall. Here is a snippet of his description: "Nanotechnology is based on the concept of tiny, self-replicating robots. The Utility Fog is a very simple extension of the idea: Suppose, instead of building the object you want atom by atom, the tiny robots [foglets] linked their arms together to form a solid ma.s.s in the shape of the object you wanted? Then, when you got tired of that avant-garde coffee table, the robots could simply shift around a little and you'd have an elegant Queen Anne piece instead." J. Storrs Hall, "What I Want to Be When I Grow Up, Is a Cloud," Foglets are the conception of the nanotechnology pioneer and Rutgers professor J. Storrs Hall. Here is a snippet of his description: "Nanotechnology is based on the concept of tiny, self-replicating robots. The Utility Fog is a very simple extension of the idea: Suppose, instead of building the object you want atom by atom, the tiny robots [foglets] linked their arms together to form a solid ma.s.s in the shape of the object you wanted? Then, when you got tired of that avant-garde coffee table, the robots could simply shift around a little and you'd have an elegant Queen Anne piece instead." J. Storrs Hall, "What I Want to Be When I Grow Up, Is a Cloud," Extropy Extropy, Quarters 3 and 4, 1994. Published on KurzweilAI.net July 6, 2001: http://www.KurzweilAI.net/foglets. See also J. Storrs Hall, "Utility Fog: The Stuff That Dreams Are Made Of," in Nanotechnology: Molecular Speculations on Global Abundance Nanotechnology: Molecular Speculations on Global Abundance, B. C. Crandall, ed. (Cambridge, Ma.s.s.: MIT Press, 1996). Published on KurzweilAI.net July 5, 2001: http://www.KurzweilAI.net/utilityfog.

35. 35. Sherry Turkle, ed., "Evocative Objects: Things We Think With," forthcoming. Sherry Turkle, ed., "Evocative Objects: Things We Think With," forthcoming.

36. 36. See the "Exponential Growth of Computing" figure in chapter 2 (p, 70). Projecting the double exponential growth of the price-performance of computation to the end of the twenty-first century, one thousand dollars' worth of computation will provide 10 See the "Exponential Growth of Computing" figure in chapter 2 (p, 70). Projecting the double exponential growth of the price-performance of computation to the end of the twenty-first century, one thousand dollars' worth of computation will provide 1060 calculations per second (cps). As we will discuss in chapter 2, three different a.n.a.lyses of the amount of computing required to functionally emulate the human brain result in an estimate of 10 calculations per second (cps). As we will discuss in chapter 2, three different a.n.a.lyses of the amount of computing required to functionally emulate the human brain result in an estimate of 1015 cps. A more conservative estimate, which a.s.sumes that it will be necessary to simulate all of the nonlinearities in every synapse and dendrite, results in an estimate of 10 cps. A more conservative estimate, which a.s.sumes that it will be necessary to simulate all of the nonlinearities in every synapse and dendrite, results in an estimate of 1019 cps for neuromorphic emulation of the human brain. Even taking the more conservative figure, we get a figure of 10 cps for neuromorphic emulation of the human brain. Even taking the more conservative figure, we get a figure of 1029 cps for the approximately 10 cps for the approximately 1010 humans. Thus, the 10 humans. Thus, the 1060 cps that can be purchased for one thousand dollars circa 2099 will represent 10 cps that can be purchased for one thousand dollars circa 2099 will represent 1031 (ten million trillion trillion) human civilizations. (ten million trillion trillion) human civilizations.

37. 37. The invention of the power loom and the other textile automation machines of the early eighteenth century destroyed the livelihoods of the cottage industry of English weavers, who had pa.s.sed down stable family businesses for hundreds of years. Economic power pa.s.sed from the weaving families to the owners of the machines. As legend has it, a young and feebleminded boy named Ned Ludd broke two textile factory machines out of sheer clumsiness. From that point on, whenever factory equipment was found to have mysteriously been damaged, anyone suspected of foul play would say, "But Ned Ludd did it." In 1812 the desperate weavers formed a secret society, an urban guerrilla army. They made threats and demands of factory owners, many of whom complied. When asked who their leader was, they replied, "Why, General Ned Ludd, of course." Although the Luddites, as they became known, initially directed most of their violence against the machines, a series of b.l.o.o.d.y engagements erupted later that year. The tolerance of the Tory government for the Luddites ended, and the movement dissolved with the imprisonment and hanging of prominent members. Although they failed to create a sustained and viable movement, the Luddites have remained a powerful symbol of opposition to automation and technology. The invention of the power loom and the other textile automation machines of the early eighteenth century destroyed the livelihoods of the cottage industry of English weavers, who had pa.s.sed down stable family businesses for hundreds of years. Economic power pa.s.sed from the weaving families to the owners of the machines. As legend has it, a young and feebleminded boy named Ned Ludd broke two textile factory machines out of sheer clumsiness. From that point on, whenever factory equipment was found to have mysteriously been damaged, anyone suspected of foul play would say, "But Ned Ludd did it." In 1812 the desperate weavers formed a secret society, an urban guerrilla army. They made threats and demands of factory owners, many of whom complied. When asked who their leader was, they replied, "Why, General Ned Ludd, of course." Although the Luddites, as they became known, initially directed most of their violence against the machines, a series of b.l.o.o.d.y engagements erupted later that year. The tolerance of the Tory government for the Luddites ended, and the movement dissolved with the imprisonment and hanging of prominent members. Although they failed to create a sustained and viable movement, the Luddites have remained a powerful symbol of opposition to automation and technology.

38. 38. See note 34 above. See note 34 above.

Chapter Two: A Theory of Technology Evolution:.

The Law of Accelerating Returns 1. 1. John Smart, Abstract to "Understanding Evolutionary Development: A Challenge for Futurists," presentation to World Futurist Society annual meeting, Washington, D.C., August 3, 2004. John Smart, Abstract to "Understanding Evolutionary Development: A Challenge for Futurists," presentation to World Futurist Society annual meeting, Washington, D.C., August 3, 2004.

2. 2. That epochal events in evolution represent increases in complexity is Theodore Modis's view. See Theodore Modis, "Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change," That epochal events in evolution represent increases in complexity is Theodore Modis's view. See Theodore Modis, "Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change Technological Forecasting and Social Change 69.4 (2002), http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/tmodis/TedWEB.htm. 69.4 (2002), http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/tmodis/TedWEB.htm.

3. 3. Compressing files is a key aspect of both data transmission (such as a music or text file over the Internet) and data storage. The smaller the file is, the less time it will take to transmit and the less s.p.a.ce it will require. The mathematician Claude Shannon, often called the father of information theory, defined the basic theory of data compression in his paper "A Mathematical Theory of Communication," Compressing files is a key aspect of both data transmission (such as a music or text file over the Internet) and data storage. The smaller the file is, the less time it will take to transmit and the less s.p.a.ce it will require. The mathematician Claude Shannon, often called the father of information theory, defined the basic theory of data compression in his paper "A Mathematical Theory of Communication," The Bell System Technical Journal The Bell System Technical Journal 27 (JulyOctober 1948): 379423, 62356. Data compression is possible because of factors such as redundancy (repet.i.tion) and probability of appearance of character combinations in data. For example, silence in an audio file could be replaced by a value that indicates the duration of the silence, and letter combinations in a text file could be replaced with coded identifiers in the compressed file. 27 (JulyOctober 1948): 379423, 62356. Data compression is possible because of factors such as redundancy (repet.i.tion) and probability of appearance of character combinations in data. For example, silence in an audio file could be replaced by a value that indicates the duration of the silence, and letter combinations in a text file could be replaced with coded identifiers in the compressed file.

Redundancy can be removed by lossless compression, as Shannon explained, which means there is no loss of information. There is a limit to lossless compression, defined by what Shannon called the entropy rate (compression increases the "entropy" of the data, which is the amount of actual information in it as opposed to predetermined and thus predictable data structures). Data compression removes redundancy from data; lossless compression does it without losing data (meaning that the exact original data can be restored). Alternatively, lossy compression, which is used for graphics files or streaming video and audio files, does result in information loss, though that loss is often imperceptible to our senses.Most data-compression techniques use a code, which is a mapping of the basic units (or symbols) in the source to a code alphabet. For example, all the s.p.a.ces in a text file could be replaced by a single code word and the number of s.p.a.ces. A compression algorithm is used to set up the mapping and then create a new file using the code alphabet; the compressed file will be smaller than the original and thus easier to transmit or store. Here are some of the categories into which common lossless-compression techniques fall: Run-length compression, which replaces repeating characters with a code and a value representing the number of repet.i.tions of that character (examples: Pack-Bits and PCX). Run-length compression, which replaces repeating characters with a code and a value representing the number of repet.i.tions of that character (examples: Pack-Bits and PCX). Minimum redundancy coding or simple entropy coding, which a.s.signs codes on the basis of probability, with the most frequent symbols receiving the shortest codes (examples: Huffman coding and arithmetic coding). Minimum redundancy coding or simple entropy coding, which a.s.signs codes on the basis of probability, with the most frequent symbols receiving the shortest codes (examples: Huffman coding and arithmetic coding). Dictionary coders, which use a dynamically updated symbol dictionary to represent patterns (examples: Lempel-Ziv, Lempel-Ziv-Welch, and DEFLATE). Dictionary coders, which use a dynamically updated symbol dictionary to represent patterns (examples: Lempel-Ziv, Lempel-Ziv-Welch, and DEFLATE). Block-sorting compression, which reorganizes characters rather than using a code alphabet; run-length compression can then be used to compress the repeating strings (example: Burrows-Wheeler transform). Block-sorting compression, which reorganizes characters rather than using a code alphabet; run-length compression can then be used to compress the repeating strings (example: Burrows-Wheeler transform). Prediction by partial mapping, which uses a set of symbols in the uncompressed file to predict how often the next symbol in the file appears. Prediction by partial mapping, which uses a set of symbols in the uncompressed file to predict how often the next symbol in the file appears.

4. 4. Murray Gell-Mann, "What Is Complexity?" in Murray Gell-Mann, "What Is Complexity?" in Complexity Complexity, vol. 1 (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1995).

5. 5. The human genetic code has approximately six billion (about 10 The human genetic code has approximately six billion (about 1010) bits, not considering the possibility of compression. So the 1027 bits that theoretically can be stored in a one-kilogram rock is greater than the genetic code by a factor of 10 bits that theoretically can be stored in a one-kilogram rock is greater than the genetic code by a factor of 1017. See note 57 below for a discussion of genome compression.

6. 6. Of course, a human, who is also composed of an enormous number of particles, contains an amount of information comparable to a rock of similar weight when NOTES 509 we consider the properties of all the particles. As with the rock, the bulk of this information is not needed to characterize the state of the person. On the other hand, much more information is needed to characterize a person than a rock. Of course, a human, who is also composed of an enormous number of particles, contains an amount of information comparable to a rock of similar weight when NOTES 509 we consider the properties of all the particles. As with the rock, the bulk of this information is not needed to characterize the state of the person. On the other hand, much more information is needed to characterize a person than a rock.

7. 7. See note 175 in chapter 5 for an algorithmic description of genetic algorithms. See note 175 in chapter 5 for an algorithmic description of genetic algorithms.

8. 8. Humans, chimpanzees, gorillas, and orangutans are all included in the scientific cla.s.sification of hominids (family Humans, chimpanzees, gorillas, and orangutans are all included in the scientific cla.s.sification of hominids (family Hominidae Hominidae). The human lineage is thought to have diverged from its great ape relatives five to seven million years ago. The human genus h.o.m.o h.o.m.o within the within the Hominidae Hominidae includes extinct species such as includes extinct species such as H. erectus H. erectus as well as modern man ( as well as modern man (H. sapiens).

In chimpanzee hands, the fingers are much longer and less straight than in humans, and the thumb is shorter, weaker, and not as mobile. Chimps can flail with a stick but tend to lose their grip. They cannot pinch hard because their thumbs do not overlap their index fingers. In the modern human, the thumb is longer, and the fingers rotate toward a central axis, so you can touch all the tips of your fingers to the tip of your thumb, a quality that is called full opposability. These and other changes gave humans two new grips: the precision and power grips. Even prehominoid hominids such as the Australopithecine Australopithecine from Ethiopia called Lucy, who is thought to have lived around three million years ago, could throw rocks with speed and accuracy. Since then, scientists claim, continual improvements in the hand's capacity to throw and club, along with a.s.sociated changes in other parts of the body, have resulted in distinct advantages over other animals of similar size and weight. See Richard Young, "Evolution of the Human Hand: The Role of Throwing and Clubbing," from Ethiopia called Lucy, who is thought to have lived around three million years ago, could throw rocks with speed and accuracy. Since then, scientists claim, continual improvements in the hand's capacity to throw and club, along with a.s.sociated changes in other parts of the body, have resulted in distinct advantages over other animals of similar size and weight. See Richard Young, "Evolution of the Human Hand: The Role of Throwing and Clubbing," Journal of Anatomy Journal of Anatomy 202 (2003): 16574; Frank Wilson, 202 (2003): 16574; Frank Wilson, The Hand: How Its Use Shapes the Brain, Language, and Human Culture The Hand: How Its Use Shapes the Brain, Language, and Human Culture (New York: Pantheon, 1998). (New York: Pantheon, 1998).

9. 9. The Santa Fe Inst.i.tute has played a pioneering role in developing concepts and technology related to complexity and emergent systems. One of the princ.i.p.al developers of paradigms a.s.sociated with chaos and complexity is Stuart Kauffman. Kauffman's The Santa Fe Inst.i.tute has played a pioneering role in developing concepts and technology related to complexity and emergent systems. One of the princ.i.p.al developers of paradigms a.s.sociated with chaos and complexity is Stuart Kauffman. Kauffman's At Home in the Universe: The Search for the Laws of Self-Organization and Complexity At Home in the Universe: The Search for the Laws of Self-Organization and Complexity (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995) looks "at the forces for order that lie at the edge of chaos." (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995) looks "at the forces for order that lie at the edge of chaos."

In his book Evolution of Complexity by Means of Natural Selection Evolution of Complexity by Means of Natural Selection (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1988), John Tyler Bonner asks the questions "How is it that an egg turns into an elaborate adult? How is it that a bacterium, given many millions of years, could have evolved into an elephant?" (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1988), John Tyler Bonner asks the questions "How is it that an egg turns into an elaborate adult? How is it that a bacterium, given many millions of years, could have evolved into an elephant?"John Holland is another leading thinker from the Santa Fe Inst.i.tute in the emerging field of complexity. His book Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity (Reading, Ma.s.s.: Addison-Wesley, 1996) includes a series of lectures that he presented at the Santa Fe Inst.i.tute in 1994. See also John H. Holland, (Reading, Ma.s.s.: Addison-Wesley, 1996) includes a series of lectures that he presented at the Santa Fe Inst.i.tute in 1994. See also John H. Holland, Emergence: From Chaos to Order Emergence: From Chaos to Order (Reading, Ma.s.s.: Addison-Wesley, 1998) and Mitch.e.l.l Waldrop, (Reading, Ma.s.s.: Addison-Wesley, 1998) and Mitch.e.l.l Waldrop, Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1992). (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1992).

10. 10. The second law of thermodynamics explains why there is no such thing as a perfect engine that uses all the heat (energy) produced by burning fuel to do work: some heat will inevitably be lost to the environment. This same principle of nature holds that heat will flow from a hot pan to cold air rather than in reverse. It also posits that closed ("isolated") systems will spontaneously become more disordered over time-that is, they tend to move from order to disorder. Molecules in ice chips, for example, are limited in their possible arrangements. So a cup of ice chips has less entropy (disorder) than the cup of water the ice chips become when left at room temperature. There are many more possible molecular arrangements in the gla.s.s of water than in the ice; greater freedom of movement equals higher entropy. Another way to think of entropy is as multiplicity. The more ways that a state could be achieved, the higher the multiplicity. Thus, for example, a jumbled pile of bricks has a higher multiplicity (and higher entropy) than a neat stack. The second law of thermodynamics explains why there is no such thing as a perfect engine that uses all the heat (energy) produced by burning fuel to do work: some heat will inevitably be lost to the environment. This same principle of nature holds that heat will flow from a hot pan to cold air rather than in reverse. It also posits that closed ("isolated") systems will spontaneously become more disordered over time-that is, they tend to move from order to disorder. Molecules in ice chips, for example, are limited in their possible arrangements. So a cup of ice chips has less entropy (disorder) than the cup of water the ice chips become when left at room temperature. There are many more possible molecular arrangements in the gla.s.s of water than in the ice; greater freedom of movement equals higher entropy. Another way to think of entropy is as multiplicity. The more ways that a state could be achieved, the higher the multiplicity. Thus, for example, a jumbled pile of bricks has a higher multiplicity (and higher entropy) than a neat stack.

11. 11. Max More articulates the view that "advancing technologies are combining and cross-fertilizing to accelerate progress e