William II makes a solemn promise to his august grandmother, Queen Victoria, and to the "best beloved" of his Allies, the Emperor of Austria, that he will restore the Guelph Fund. Francis Joseph has obtained from the Duke of c.u.mberland the somewhat undignified letter of renunciation, which we have all read, and now it is either up to Rogue Scapin or Bre'r Fox, just as you please! William II says that he never meant to give back the capital, but only the interest! It is easy to imagine the effect produced on those concerned by the revelation of this astonishing mental reservation. But this is not all! The King of Prussia--always short of money, always in debt on account of his extravagant fancies and expensive clothes, and half ruined by his mania for running to and fro--had made certain arrangements for meeting his creditors by means of the Guelph Fund, but with the proviso, needless to say, that they affected only the interest!!

It is said that the heir of the House of Hanover has written a second letter which evoked a sickly smile from William II, and of which Councillor Rossing has suppressed the publication with some difficulty.

Amongst other things, William II has had quick-firing guns, supplied to the people of Dahomey by slave merchants. The Berlin _Post_, directly inspired by the Emperor, tells us exactly what is his object in so doing--

"England and Russia will not help France to settle her difficulties in her colonies. These two Powers are far too pre-occupied with the struggle for supremacy in Asia. France is, therefore, reduced to looking to Germany as her sole support. If France consents to work together with Germany, Africa will be won for civilisation, and for the best civilisation of all, the Franco-German, but so long as France pursues this task single-handed, she will not attain her end, and will find in Africa nothing but disappointment."

Such evidences of effrontery remind us that William II is the pupil of Bismarck. We are, therefore, justified in concluding that the Germans realise that it is not Aristides the Just who has been exiled, but a master rogue, whom his pupil now imitates.

April 29, 1892. [23]

William II continues to expel from Berlin all unemployed workmen, quite regardless of the cause of their temporary or continuous idleness. He sends them back to their native parishes, without caring in the least whether they will find there the work which they are unable to secure at the capital. The "Workmen's Emperor" compels an emigration into the interior of all the most discontented, the most irritated and wretched, thus sowing throughout all the land the evil seed of the most dangerous kind of propagandist. The spirit of Germany is full of surprises for any one who takes the trouble to observe it carefully, and it is not only in the acts of the Emperor that we perceive its contradictions.

To take one instance out of a thousand. Five non-commissioned officers of dragoons have just been tried at Ulm, accused of having beaten recruits with sticks until they drew blood. They have been acquitted, after having proved that they acted under the orders of their captain.

In this connection it is interesting to read the following--

"The Court of Saverne has just condemned a carrier named Schwartz to six weeks' imprisonment and a fine of ten marks for ill-treating his horse."

The unstable grandson of the steadfast William I threatens before long to get between his teeth a fourth war minister; he has already devoured three chiefs of the general staff, and, in a few years, as many ministers as his grandfather had during the whole course of his long reign.

It remains to be seen whether, after the withdrawal of the scholastic law, William II will still find a majority willing to accept his new and disturbing schemes.

May 28, 1892. [24]

As the German Empire has no other force of cohesion except such as lies in militarism, William is necessarily compelled to do everything to magnify and increase it. Whereas we in France are free to develop the quality rather than the quant.i.ty of our army, Germany, finding the elements of cohesion only in her military agglomerations is compelled to increase unceasingly the number of her soldiers.

At this very moment William is planning to add a permanent effective of 40,000 men to the tactical units. In return, he will promise Parliament and the country a provisional two years' service, being quite capable of withdrawing his promise so soon as the vote has been secured.

Numbers, always numbers! It is the German Emperor's only ideal, and he becomes further and further removed from any principle of selection. . . .

The German newspapers make a speciality of the fabrication of sensational rumours. I could not ask any better vengeance for our beloved country than to have their stories placed before the most loyal of Sovereigns, the most far-seeing of diplomats, of the politician the furthest removed from sordid calculations that the world knows or has ever known, that is to say, of the Emperor Alexander III. . . .

But all this is just a manoeuvre of the enemy who plays his own game, and it has no importance whatsoever beyond that which credulous and anxious people choose to give it. Inasmuch as the renewal of the Triple Alliance has produced a definite situation, which affords no opportunity for any of the combinations which might have resulted had it been broken up into independent parts, the Tzar with his usual foresight was naturally led to proclaim his _rapprochement_ with France, and this he has done. What change has there been in the situation since Kronstadt? None at all, unless it be that Lord Salisbury has revealed something more of the nature of his intrigues at Sofia, and of the anti-Russian intentions of his Bulgarian policy. The King of Italy has surrendered himself a little more into the hands of the King of Prussia, placing at the disposal of William's diseased restlessness further and inexhaustible sources of trouble and uneasiness for Europe.

July 9, 1892. [25]

It seems to me that the speech addressed by William to his new Admiralty yacht at the port of Stettin has not attracted sufficient notice. It is simply beautiful, a very choice morsel indeed. To show how little I exaggerate, I will ask my readers to study it in the actual text, and I would like to engage the services of the King of Prussia to collaborate in the _Nouvelle Revue_ for a page in precisely the same style. Here is this little masterpiece of cla.s.sic purity--

"Thou art ready to glide into thy new element, to take thy place amidst the Imperial war-ships, and thou art destined to carry our National Flag.

Thine elegant construction, thy light sides, showing no sign of the heavy threatening defensive turrets, such as are carried by our war-ships destined to fight the foe, indicate that thou art consecrated to works of peace. Lightly, as on the wing, to cross the seas, bringing distant lands closer to each other, giving rest and recreation to workers, happiness to the Imperial children, and to the august mother of the country,--that is thine appointed task. May thy light artillery be worn by thee as an ornament and not as a weapon of war.

"It is for me now to give thee a name. Thou shalt carry that which my Castle bears, whose towers rise so high towards Heaven, that which, lying amidst the beautiful country of Suabia, has given its name to my family.

It is a name which recalls to my Fatherland centuries full of labour, of work done with and for the people, of life devoted to the people, of good examples set in leading the people in paths of literature and in many struggles. The name which thou shall bear means all this. Mayest thou do honour to thy name, and to thy flag, to the great Elector who, first of all men, taught us our Mission on the sea, and to my great ancestors who, by works of peace as in fierce warfare, knew how to keep and increase the glory of our fatherland. I baptize thee _Hohenzollern_!"

August 29, 1892. [26]

William II, claiming as usual to be ahead of every change of opinion in Europe, and to direct it, has chosen a very singular pretext to make profession of his faith as a pacifist, at the moment when Lord Rosebery was doing the same, and when the visit of our squadron to Genoa was about to emphasise a relaxation of tension in the relations between France and Italy.

On June 24, 1890, the following motion was adopted by the Reichstag--

"The Governments of the Confederated German States are requested to take into serious consideration the introduction of the two years' period of military service for the Infantry."

Without deigning to remember this, and without bothering his head as to the discomfiture of the peasantry, who believed the Emperor to be really favourable to a scheme which he had openly patronised hardly six months before, on the ground that he had been greatly impressed by General Falkenstein's report; indifferent also to the difficulty of the situation in which he was placing Von Caprivi, advocate of the two years'

system--the Emperor-King (apparently just because on that day it had pleased him to make a declaration in favour of peace) made a speech to his officers after the last review of the Guards, and summarily condemned any reduction in the term of military service. Moreover, he requested his hearers to repeat his words and to let people know the motives which impelled him thus to set his face against a reform, which, not having secured his approval, must remain in the limbo of fantastic schemes.

Much stir and commotion follows, and as usual a great deal is said about the most changeable and the most feather-headed of Sovereigns; then we have a new interpretation of his speech by the Press, contradictions of the original text, withdrawal by the Emperor himself of his original words, and finally, as net result: a great deal of noise, and the attention of all Europe directed towards William II. What more could he ask?

Soon, thanks to the insidious activities of Austria in Servia, and thanks to that of his own police on the Franco-Belgian frontier, William will be able to threaten Europe with War.

September 12, 1892. [27]

William has given up the idea of his trip to Hamburg, cholera being the sort of jest for which he has no relish. To make up, he has rushed off to Canossa. The Black Alliance, as the Liberals call it, is an accomplished fact. The price paid to the Catholics for their a.s.sistance has been a matter of bargaining; what William II wants is an increase in the peace-footing of the army, and of the annual contingent of recruits, so that Germany's army of 300,000 men may always be ready.

In twenty years the War budget has been raised from 309 to 700 millions, as the result of these new plans. The _Freisinnige Zeitung_ wonders what will happen on the day when the opposition of the Catholic Centre shall cease, which has always been a check upon military expenditure and which, nevertheless, has not prevented Germany from spending 11,597 millions upon armaments since 1871.

Will Austria follow once more the lead of Berlin? The object of William II's visit to Vienna, accompanied by Von Caprivi, is to decide her to do so. In the Empire of the Hapsburgs, as in Germany, people are asking; "What is going to be the end of all this expenditure?" The _Vaterland_, discussing William's voyage, says that "the pact between the three great powers appears to be beginning to be very shaky."

September 29, 1892. [28]

William II thinks that War is impending and close at hand; he feels that Italy is inclined to argue, and Austria to a.s.sert herself. According to the tradition of Von Moltke, he wishes to be ready at the hour of his own choosing.

In the last volume of the Field-Marshal's memoirs, there is a letter addressed by him to the deputy, Count de Bethusy Huc, dated March 29, 1869, in which the following words occur--

"After a war like that which we have just ended, one can hardly wish for another. I desire, however, to profit by the occasion which now offers to make war on France, for, unfortunately, I consider this war to be absolutely necessary, and indispensable within a period of five years; after that, our organisation and armament, which are to-day superior, may be equalled by the efforts of France. It is therefore to our interest to fight as soon as possible. The present moment is favourable; let us profit by it."

November 12, 1892. [29]