PERCENTAGES OF PUPILS FOR EACH ENTERING AGE

AGES 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Undistributed Total 0.4 7.6 31.6 34.4 18.1 5.5 1.2 1.0 Boys 0.6 8.0 31.0 37.8 18.8 5.6 0.8 1.1 Girls 0.2 7.4 32.4 34.8 17.5 5.5 1.4 1.0

We see that 84 per cent of the pupils enter at age 14, 15, and 16, or, what is perhaps more important, that nearly 40 per cent enter under 15 years of age. The similarity of percentages for boys and for girls is p.r.o.nounced. The slight advantage of the boys for ages 12 and 13 may be due to home influence in restricting the early entrance of the girls, thus causing a corresponding superiority for the girls at age 14. The mode of this percentage distribution is at 15 for both boys and girls.

What portion of each entering-age-group has no failures? This question and the answer presented below direct our attention to the superiority of the pupils of the earlier entering ages. That these groups of earlier ages of entrance are comprised of pupils selected for their capabilities is shown by the successive decrease in the percentages of the non-failing as the ages of their entrance increases, up to age 18.

DISTRIBUTION OF THE PUPILS WHO DO NOT FAIL, FOR EACH ENTERING-AGE-GROUP

AGES Totals 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

1061 B. 11 102 320 309 186 56 9 4 4 1575 G. 3 133 522 545 256 73 29 7 6 % of ----------------- Entrants 58.0 50.0 43.4 40.0 39.8 37.7 55.0

Here is definite evidence that the pupils of the earlier entering ages are less likely to fail in any of their school subjects than are the older ones. Those entering at ages 12 or 13 escape school failures altogether for 50 per cent or more of their numbers. Those entering at age 14 are somewhat less successful but still seem superior to those of later entrance ages. It is encouraging, then, that these three ages of entrance include nearly 40 per cent of the 6,141 pupils. There is, of course, nothing in this situation to justify any deduction of the sort that pupils entering at the age of 17 would have been more successful had they been sent to high school earlier, except that had they been able to enter high school earlier they would have represented a different selection of ability by that fact alone. There is also a sort of selection operative for the pupils entering at ages 18, 19, or 20, which tends to account at least partly for the rise in the percentage of the non-failing for these years. It is safe to believe that for the most part only the more able, ambitious, and purposeful individuals are likely to display the energy required or to discern the need of their entering high school when they have reached the age of 18 or later. The appeal of school athletics will in this case seem very inadequate to explain their entrance so late, since the girls predominate so strongly for these years. Then it may be contended further that the added maturity and experience of those later entrants may partly compensate for a lack of native ability, if such be the case, and thereby result in a relatively high percentage of non-failing pupils for this group.

It is readily conceded that the avoidance of failure in school work serves as only one criterion for gauging the pupils' accomplishment. It is accordingly important to inquire how the different age-groups of school entrants compare with reference to the persistence and ability which is represented by school graduation. A truly striking array of percentages follows in reference to the question of how many of the entering pupils in each age-group do graduate.

DISTRIBUTION OF THE PUPILS GRADUATING FOR EACH ENTERING-AGE GROUP

AGES Totals 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

796 B. 14 115 290 253 99 20 2 1 2 1140 G. 5 151 465 363 121 26 5 1 0

% of Entrants 79.1 56.6 38.8 29.9 20.0 13.4 9.1 10.0 13.3

These percentages bear convincing testimony in support of the previous evidence that the pupils of the earlier entering years are highly selected in ability. Of all the high school entrants they are the 'most fit,' the least likely to fail, and the most certain to graduate. The percentage of pupils graduating who entered at the age of 12 is approximately four times that of pupils who entered at the age of 16.

Thirteen is more than four times as fruitful of graduates as age 17; fourteen bears a similar relationship to age 18; and the percentage for fifteen is three times that for age 19, as is apparent from the above figures. The fact that the decline of these percentages ceases at age 19 is probably due to the greater maturity of such later entrants.

When we make inquiry as to what portion of the graduates in each of the above groups 'goes through' in four years or less, we get the series of percentages indicated below.

PERCENTAGE OF THE GRADUATES WHO FINISH IN FOUR YEARS OR LESS, FOR EACH OF THE ENTERING-AGE GROUPS

Ages 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

% of Each Group 84.3 85.7 75.8 79.5 84.3 80.4 100

It appears that the ones in the older age-groups who do graduate are not so handicapped in reference to the time requirement for graduation as we might have expected them to be from the facts of the preceding pages. Perhaps that fact is partly accounted for by the not unusual tendency to restrain the more rapid progress of the younger pupils or to promote the older ones partly by age, so that by our school procedure the younger and the brighter pupils may at times actually be more r.e.t.a.r.ded, according to mental age, than are the older and slower ones.

Since the same teachers, the same schools, and the same administrative policy were involved for the different entrance-age groups, the prognostic value of the factor of age at entrance will seem to be unimpaired, whether it operates independently as a gauge of rank in mental ability, or conjointly with and indicative of the varying influence on these pupils of other concomitant factors, such as the difference of economic demands, the difference of social interests, the difference in permanence of conflicting habits of the individual, or the difference in effectiveness of the school's appeal as adapted for the several ages. One may contend, and with some success, that the high school regime is better adjusted to the younger pupils, with the consequent result that they are more successful in its requirements.

The distractions of more numerous social interests may actually accompany the later years of school age. In reference to the social distractions of girls, Margaret Slattery says,[23] "This mania for 'going' seizes many of our girls just when they need rest and natural pleasures, the great out-of-doors, and early hours of retiring." But surely such distractions are not peculiar to the girls alone. The economic needs that arise at the age of sixteen and later are often considered to const.i.tute a pressing factor regarding the continuance in school. But VanDenburg[22] was convinced by the investigation, in New York City, of 420 rentals for the families of pupils that "on the whole the economic status of these pupils seems to be only a slight factor in their continuance in school." A similar conclusion was reached by Wooley,[24] in Cincinnati, after investigating 600 families, in which it was estimated that 73 per cent of the families did not need the earnings of the children who left school to go to work. The corresponding report by a commission[25] in Ma.s.sachusetts shows 76 per cent. The same facts for New York City[26] indicate that 80 per cent of such families are independent of the child's wages. But Holley concludes,[27] from a study of certain towns in Illinois, that "there is a high correlation between the economic, educational, and social advantages of a home and the number of years of school which its children receive." It will hardly be denied that even aside from the relation of the family means to the school persistence, the economic needs may have a direct influence on the failing of the children in their school work, either because home conditions may be decidedly unfavorable for required home study, or because of the larger portion of time that must be given to outside employment, with its consequent reduction of the normal vitality of the individual or of his readiness to study. But, in spite of the possible interrelationship of these factors, it still appears that the school entrance age of pupils will serve as a valuable sort of educational compa.s.s to foretell in part the probable direction of their later accomplishment.

3. THE AMOUNT OF FAILURE AT EACH AGE AND ITS RELATION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FAILING FOR THAT AGE

We have considered at some length the prognostic value of the age at entrance. Here we shall briefly consider the prognostic value of age in reference to the time when failures occur and the amount of failure for such age. If we were to total all the failures for a given age, as shown in Table I, what part will that form of the total subjects taken by these pupils at the time the failures occur? In other words, what are the percentages formed by the total failures on the possibility of failing, for the same pupils and the same semesters, considered by age groups? The summary line of Table I gives the total failures according to the ages at which they occurred. The number of pupils sharing in each group of these failures is also known by a separate tabulation.

Then the full number of subjects per pupil is taken as 4, since approximately 50 per cent of the pupils take five or more subjects each semester and the other 50 per cent take four or less (see p. 61). With the number of pupils given, and with a schedule of 4 subjects per pupil, we are able to compute the percentages which the failures form of the total subjects for these failing pupils at the time. These percentages are given below.

THE PERCENTAGES FORMED BY FAILURES AT EACH AGE ON THE POSSIBILITIES OF FAILING AT THAT AGE AND TIME, FOR THE SAME PUPILS

Ages 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

% 36.6 38.0 37.9 40.9 40.8 41.2 41.3 42.0 42.7

[Footnote: These percentages are computed from the data secured in Table I, as noted above.]

There is an almost unbroken rise in these percentages from 36.6 for age 13 to 42.7 for age 21. Not only do a greater number of the older pupils fail, as was previously indicated, but they also have a greater percentage of failure for the subjects which they are taking. It seems appropriate here to offer a caution that, in reading the above percentages, one must not conclude that all of age 14 fail in 38 per cent of their work, but rather that those who do fail at age 14 fail in 38 per cent of their work for that semester. The evidence does not seem to indicate that the maturity of later years operates to secure any general reduction of these percentages. The prognostic value of such facts seems to consist in leading us to expect a greater percentage of failures (on the total subjects) from the older pupils who fail than from the younger ones who fail. If it were possible to translate the above percentages to a basis of the possibility of failure for all pupils, instead of the possibility for failing pupils only, the disparity for the different ages would become more p.r.o.nounced, as the earlier ages have more non-failing pupils. But this we are not able to do, as our data are not adequate for that purpose.

4. THE INITIAL RECORD IN HIGH SCHOOL FOR PROGNOSIS OF FAILURE

For this purpose the pupil record for the first year, in reference to failures, is deemed more adequate and dependable than the record for the first semester only. Accordingly, the pupils have been cla.s.sified on their first year's record into those who had 0, 1, 2, 3, and up to 7 or more failures. Then these groups were further distributed into those who failed 0, 1, 2, 3, and up to 7 or more times after the first year.

From such a double distribution we may get some indication of what a.s.surance the first year's record offers on the expectation of later failures. Table VII presents these facts.

Table VII is read in this manner: Of all the pupils who have failures the first year (805 boys, and 1,129 girls) 397 boys and 672 girls have failures later, 105 boys and 130 girls have 1 failure later, 77 boys and 98 girls have 2 failures later, while 68 boys and 63 girls have seven or more failures later. The column of totals to the right gives the pupils for each number of failures for the first year. The line of totals at the bottom gives the pupils for each number of failures subsequent to the first year.

The table includes 3,508 pupils, since those who did not remain in school more than three semesters are not included (1,120 boys, 1,513 girls). Obviously, those who do not stay more than one year would have no subsequent school record, and those remaining only a brief time beyond one year would not have a record of comparable length. It seems quite significant, too, for the purposes of our prognosis, that of the 2,633 pupils dropping out in three semesters or less only about 43 per cent have ever failed (boys--46 per cent, girls--41 per cent). In contrast to this, nearly 70 per cent (69.6) of those continuing in school more than three semesters fail one or more times. Those who drop out without failure, in the three semesters or less, const.i.tute nearly 60 per cent of the total non-failing pupils (2,568), but the failing pupils who drop out in that same period const.i.tute less than 32 per cent of the total who fail (3,573). This situation received some emphasis in Chapter II and will be further treated in Chapter IV, under the comparison of the failing and non-failing groups.

TABLE VII

SUBSEQUENT RECORD OF FAILURES FOR PUPILS FAILING 1, 2, 3, ETC., TIMES THE FIRST YEAR

FAILURES OF 1ST FAILURES SUBSEQUENT TO FIRST YEAR YEAR 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7+ TOTALS

0 B. 397 105 77 50 47 37 24 68 805 G. 672 130 98 60 53 27 26 63 1129 1069 235 175 110 100 64 50 131 1934

1 B. 46 43 34 33 35 21 15 46 273 G. 65 43 53 33 33 19 17 67 330 111 86 87 66 68 40 32 113 603

2 B. 22 24 23 23 30 21 13 57 213 G. 42 32 27 21 22 13 15 83 255 64 56 50 44 52 34 28 140 468

3 B. 7 5 16 10 10 13 10 30 101 G. 8 9 7 10 17 6 7 41 105 15 14 23 20 27 19 17 71 206

4 B. 6 8 5 7 7 11 7 23 74 G. 8 7 5 6 10 8 4 27 75 14 15 10 13 17 19 11 50 149

5 B. 3 1 0 2 1 5 3 11 26 G. 5 9 5 6 5 4 2 14 50 8 10 5 8 6 9 5 25 76

6 B. 0 1 4 2 1 1 1 10 20 G. 2 1 2 2 6 2 0 6 21 2 2 6 4 7 3 1 16 41