The Future of Brooklyn.

by Alfred C. Chapin.

_To the Honorable, the Common Council_:

GENTLEMEN:

In this message I shall attempt a general statement of the condition of the city, and of its building operations. For the purpose of broadly considering the city's present condition and standing among similar communities, the returns of the recent Presidential election furnish valuable data. Presidential elections call out a full vote, and thus afford an indication of the relative growth of the different cities of the country. The following table is believed to correctly state the total number of votes cast in the four leading cities for President at the recent election:

Total vote cast in 1888.

New York 270,194 Philadelphia 205,747 Brooklyn 148,868 Chicago 123,475

In 1880 the vote of these several cities in the Presidential election bore the following proportion to the population as shown by the census of the same year:

Number of population to each voter in 1880:

New York 5.87.

Philadelphia 4.92.

Brooklyn 5.29.

Chicago 6.06.

The following table contains the population of each city in 1880, and the apparent population at present, basing the estimate upon the vote of this year, and a.s.suming the ratio of population to the numbers of voters to remain the same as in 1880:

Population Apparent population in 1880. in 1888.

New York, 1,206,299. 1,585,529.

Philadelphia, 847,170. 1,014,332.

Brooklyn, 566,663. 782,221.

Chicago, 503,185. 748,258.

The method of reaching this conclusion cannot be called unduly favorable to our city. The difference in the ratio existing between the population and the voters in 1880 in Chicago and in Brooklyn would seem to indicate either that Chicago possessed an unusually large unnaturalized population, or else that it did not poll its full vote.

If the unnaturalized population of our own city is larger than it was in 1880, the above estimate may be too small. If the increase of population since 1880 has been one that brought with it a larger proportion of women and children than the increase before 1880, the above estimate is too small. Whether either of these possible modifications should be given serious consideration is a matter of conjecture upon which some light may be thrown by what will be set forth in this communication.

The twenty-six wards now comprising the city of Brooklyn, contained in 1880 a population of 580,313; if, therefore, their present population as above estimated is 782,221, there has been an increase in eight years of 201,903, or an average annual gain for each of those years of 25,237. But the population in 1870 was 396,099, and in 1875, as enumerated by the State Census, it was 484,616, showing a gain for the five years of 87,518, or an average annually of 17,500. Between 1875 and 1880 it rose to 566,663, the total gain for the five years being 82,047, the average annual gain being 16,400. It should, therefore, first be noticed that the rate of increase of the last decade was more rapid during its first half than during its closing half. The present decade began in a period of more moderate growth than that of some years previous. We may, I think, safely a.s.sume that the falling off in the gain between 1875 and 1880 was largely due to the opening of the system of elevated roads in New York City in 1878. Making all necessary allowance for the increase due to the Twenty-sixth Ward, which was not a part of the city in 1880, it is still impossible to believe that the average annual gain of 16,400 which prevailed from 1875 to 1880 could have been abruptly changed to the average annual gain of 25,237 which has prevailed from 1880 to the present time. We must, then, a.s.sume that during the years since 1880 the rate of growth of the city has advanced quite materially; and that the average increase of the first three or four years of the present decade may not have been much in excess of the average increase of the five years from 1875 to 1880. A sufficient cause for the change of the rate of growth is furnished in the opening of the Bridge in 1883.

A further promoting cause is found in the opening of the Brooklyn Elevated Railway in 1885. We must, therefore, a.s.sume the average annual gain for the past eight years (of 25,237) to be greater than the average gain of the three or four years following 1880. If so, it is obvious that the gains for the present year and for the years immediately preceding must have been greater than 25,000. That the two causes suggested contributed to change the rate of growth is not likely to be questioned by any one. But they are only the accompaniments of a broader and more persistent cause, which is the fundamental reason of the existence of the bridge and of our present system of rapid transit. This larger cause is a general change in the relation between New York and Brooklyn, gradually manifesting itself as a necessary result of the development of the whole metropolitan community surrounding the port of New York. The first two causes, therefore, though permanent, were auxiliary and specific. The last is a general, continuous condition, whose force seems unlikely to decline, but more likely to augment from year to year. The first two causes, also, may be said to have a fixed or, at all events, an ascertainable maximum influence, based upon their respective capacity to transport pa.s.sengers. They are merely methods of transit. Their capacity may in time be exhausted. In such case they may be supplemented; new bridges can be built, and doubtless will be; newer elevated railroads have been built and opened for business since the construction of the one already mentioned. More elevated railroads are to be built. In addition to the Brooklyn Elevated Railroad Company, already named, now operating six and three-fourths miles of railroad, the Kings County Elevated Railroad Company is operating five and one-half miles of railroad, and the Union Elevated Railroad Company is operating four and three-fifths miles, forming together a system of nearly seventeen miles, which promises to increase its capacity as well as its mileage. Construction is still progressing upon these lines, and it is reported that at the close of the year 1889, or earlier, there will be twenty-five miles of elevated railroad in operation in the city.

These features of the city's condition call attention to the fact that we have reached a period of development, at which it is our duty to provide clearly and understandingly for the needs of a far greater population than that now included within our limits.

In earlier days Americans did much empty boasting and made many glorious predictions. At the same time, so far as material preparations are concerned, they could do little for those coming after them. The art of living had not then been studied as it since has been. Sanitary science can hardly be said to have been in its infancy, for in this country it seemed to have no existence whatever.

In the establishing of enduring and fundamental principles of government, and in the field of law much was done for us and for our posterity by the men of previous generations, but it was necessary that there should be a gradual education of the business sense of the country before men could appreciate the nature and import of the problems now presented in the growth of cities. It was necessary that a more leisurely aspect should come over life; that comfort and health should be more highly prized. The more purely intellectual side of our ancestors' work was well done; but the needs of the by no means distant future, the inheritances which our successors should receive from us, are of a different description. Pavements, sewers, sufficient water supply, parks, schools, public buildings, an enlarged application of the results attained in sanitary science, and the solid work of masonry are the inheritances we should transmit, rather than far reaching adjudications, such as that of the Dartmouth College case, or comprehensive enactments, such as the ordinance establishing the Northwest Territory. Naturally, the greatest and most pressing need will arise here at the centre of the greatest population. How great that need may be, or how great a population may congregate within our area or upon the borders of the bay of New York, we cannot indeed actually estimate, but to some extent we can forecast it. Such forecasts are not useless. In his message of December, 1861, President Lincoln said: "There are already among us those who, if the Union be preserved, will live to see it contain two hundred and fifty millions." Such a vision of the future, at a time of extreme trial, seemed to him neither vain nor fanciful. Its utterance was evidence that he possessed the sort of political imagination which a statesman should possess if he is to discern the drift of public thought, or to picture the future material condition of his country. When compared with other estimates, his outlook was not extravagant, though it may not be realized. Its concern for us is direct and unavoidable. For the course of history, in our own land and abroad, makes it clear that the population about the port of New York is to hold a place of high importance in the nation, both numerical and otherwise.

The State of New York pa.s.sed to the first place in population in the nation in 1820. Since that day the population of the Union, of the State of New York, and the combined population of the cities of New York and Brooklyn, at each decade from 1820 to 1880, and the percentage of increase in each decade, have been as follows:

Population Population Population of New Increase of the Increase of the Increase York and per State of per United per Years. Brooklyn. cent. New York. cent. States. cent.

1820 130,881 1,372,111 9,633,822

1830 215,049 64.3 1,918,608 39.8 12,866,020 32.51

1840 348,943 62.2 2,428,926 26.5 17,069,453 33.52

1850 612,385 75.5 3,097,394 27.5 23,191,876 33.83

1860 1,072,312 75.1 3,880,735 25.2 31,443,321 35.11

1870 1,338,391 24.8 4,382,759 12.9 38,558,371 22.65

1880 1,772,962 32.4 5,082,871 15.9 50,155.783 30.08

Thus the combined population of New York and Brooklyn has at all times since 1830 grown at a rate much more rapid than that of the growth of the State of New York; the rate of growth of the two cities has at all times exceeded the rate of growth of the population of the whole Union, although the rate of growth of the population of the State of New York has not kept pace with that of the population of the United States since 1830. But for the growth of the two cities, the State would, before this time, have ceased to hold the first place. The degree to which the population of the two cities has gained upon that of the State in the whole period, is quite notable. Their proportion of the population of the State in 1820 was less than one-tenth; while in 1880 more than one-third of the population of the State lived in Brooklyn and New York. On the other hand, in 1820, the State of New York included more than one-eighth of the population of the whole Union; while in 1880 it embraced a little less than one-tenth of that population. At present, adopting the estimates already given, based upon the Presidential vote for this year, New York and Brooklyn include nearly, if not quite, two-fifths of the population of the whole State.

Without adopting Lincoln's prediction, we need only look forward to a time when the country may contain one hundred and fifty million people. Even then, the density of its population will be much less than that of older countries or of some States of the Union. If the population of the State of New York failed to hold its present relation, and fell off until it numbered but eight per cent. or about one-twelfth of the population of the Union, it would still contain more than twelve millions of people, of which a population surpa.s.sing one-half might be found in or near these two cities. As the two cities grow, apparently an increasing proportion of that growth must come to Brooklyn. The mere question of area goes far to determine such a result. Each mile of departure from the New York City Hall emphasizes the inequality in the quant.i.ty of residence area lying respectively upon Manhattan Island and within our limits. It is four miles from the New York City Hall to Sixtieth street; and the capacity of the area below that street for purposes of residence may be said to be well nigh exhausted. The encroachments of business below that division line seem likely to diminish its capacity to furnish homes nearly as rapidly as improvements in building methods may augment such capacity.

Of the twenty-four a.s.sembly Districts in the City of New York, nineteen--to wit, one to eighteen inclusive, and the twentieth--lie wholly below Fifty-ninth street. In these nineteen districts the increase of registration in 1888 over that of 1884 is 13,641. The remaining five districts lie almost wholly above Fifty-ninth street; and in them the increase is 32,110. Apparently more than seventy per cent. of the growth of New York during the past four years has been north of Fifty-ninth street. Not only must this comparatively fixed condition of New York below Fifty-ninth street remain or become more and more marked, but the line of division between the growing and the fixed parts of the city must rapidly shift from Fifty-ninth street to One Hundred and Tenth street. For of the area between Fifty-ninth street and One Hundred and Tenth street a substantial part is devoted to Central Park, and is unavailable for residences. Furthermore, the presence of Central Park causes land east and west of it to be much sought after, and to command high prices. That part of New York, therefore, which lies between Fifty-ninth street and One Hundred and Tenth street is to be largely taken by people whose means are abundant, and of the s.p.a.ce not already occupied, but a small part will be left for the sort of population from which Brooklyn draws its chief and characteristic growth.

How far existing conditions may be disturbed by new means of transit or by new works of life in New York City, no one can now tell. At present, the broad fact is, that the whole area of Brooklyn (excepting only the more remote parts of the Twenty-sixth Ward, the former town of New Lots) is nearer in distance to the New York City Hall than that part of New York City lying above One Hundred and Tenth street.

Furthermore, the residence area lying between Fifty-ninth and One Hundred and Tenth streets in New York is not one-seventh of that lying between lines of like distance in Kings County.

To attempt a close estimate of the future population of New York and Brooklyn might be neither wise nor profitable. Some conception of the general course or character of that development is the most that is practicable. All nineteenth century progress discloses a tendency to concentration of population. In our own country the inhabitants of cities formed one-thirtieth of the population in 1790; one-eighth in 1850; and nine-fortieths or half way between one-fifth and one-fourth in 1880. In this State a full one-half of the population dwelt in cities in 1880. The proportion now is not less than three-fifths, and is rapidly approaching, if it has not already reached, five-eighths.

The population of the Union since 1820 has increased at a rate varying by decades from over 35 per cent. to 22.65 per cent. The lowest rate was that of the war decade. The rate per decade since 1870 has been more than 30 per cent. The population of the cities of New York and Brooklyn has at all times increased more rapidly than that of the nation. This was true even during the war decade, although the marked falling off of their rate of growth in that decade disclosed a decided sensitiveness to whatever influences accelerated or r.e.t.a.r.ded national growth. New York and Brooklyn, indeed, have at all times shown by their rate and character of progress and growth that they are reflections of the development of the nation rather than of that of any State or locality. We may, therefore, safely say that the growth of the united population of New York and Brooklyn hereafter, as in the past, will depend chiefly upon the general progress of the whole nation. How rapid this progress will continue, how great proportions it may finally attain can only be vaguely conjectured. Lincoln's forecast of two hundred and fifty millions of souls during the life time of people who were in existence in 1861, would seem to have been over-sanguine, although it was not without parallel or precedent. The decade between 1850 and 1860, at the close of which he was speaking, had witnessed a most rapid national growth, that is, a rate of more than thirty-five per cent. for the whole Union. Percentages decline as aggregates increase. The rate of thirty per cent. which has prevailed since 1870, would not produce two hundred and fifty millions (250,000,000) of people until after 1940. It is too much to a.s.sume that such a rate of national growth will continue. Its continuance for so long a period would involve an increase of over forty millions (40,000,000) between 1920 and 1930, and over fifty-five millions (55,000,000) between 1930 and 1940. It seems more reasonable to expect a gradual decline in the rate of increase, and that the relation between this country and Europe will more closely approach an equilibrium, accompanied or followed by a diminution of the force of immigration as a factor in our national growth. Immigration in the past has fluctuated widely. The total number of immigrants landing in this country for the whole decade closing in 1880, was less than that for the first five years of the present decade. To what degree the population of the future will dwell in cities can perhaps best be foretold by present indications in our own land, or by the conditions prevailing in more thickly settled nations. Present indications here, as has been pointed out, suggest a city growth more rapid than that of the remainder of the population. Among the older nations, the population of the British Isles may be said to resemble our own most closely. The population of Great Britain and Ireland in 1881 was thirty-five millions (35,000,000). More than one-tenth of this population was contained in London alone. Such an urban population manifestly sustains itself largely if not chiefly upon the commercial and maritime importance of the nation containing it, and only to a minor degree upon the community surrounding it. This condition of existence may never be as emphatically true of the population about the port of New York as it is of the population of London, yet it has always been believed that the final commercial position of our nation must be one of commanding importance. That belief compels the inference that the great port of the nation and of the continent must continue to attract an enormous population. That the present rate of growth, which adds 30 per cent. to the population of New York, and more than 40 per cent. to that of Brooklyn, in every ten years, will endure, need not be expected. The results of a computation upon such a basis seem incredible, since they call for a population of three million five hundred thousand (3,500,000) in New York in 1920, and of two million two hundred thousand (2,200,000) in Brooklyn at the same time. But we may well believe that in the nation there will be a gradual approach to the density of population now maintained in older countries; that this port will hold its place as a general point of concentration and distribution for the nation, the continent, perhaps for the world; and that the excess of residence area in and about our own city over the corresponding area of New York must continue to tell in our favor, probably with increasing force.

Looking back no further than 1850, and comparing the two cities with each other, the following table shows their numbers and rate of growth in the successive decades:

Population Population of Increase of Increase Years. New York. per cent. Brooklyn. per cent.

1850 515,547 96,838 1860 05,651 56.2 266,661 175.3 1870 942,292 16.9 396,099 48.5 1880 1,206,299 28.0 566,663 43.0

As the present Twenty-sixth Ward of Brooklyn was not a part of the city in 1880, a comparison of the population of Brooklyn, as the city is now const.i.tuted, with the population of the City of New York would be as follows:

The figures for 1888 for both cities are estimated on the basis already stated.

Increase Increase Year. New York. per cent. Brooklyn. per cent.

1880 1,206,299 580,318 1888 1,585,529 782,221 --------- ------- 379,230 23.9 201,903 34.7 3 pr. cent. 4.3 pr. cent.

per year. per year.

The records of the Building Department aid in testing the estimates already submitted, and more strikingly in disclosing the character of the population now coming to us. During the twelve months ending on November 30 of this year, 4,226 permits were granted for buildings of all varieties, estimated by their projectors to cost $22,377,825. The estimated value of this proposed construction has not been exceeded during any similar period in the City's history. The buildings of a residence description were to furnish accommodation for 10,457 families. Not every building for which a permit is issued is afterwards completed, but the magnitude of the volume of the business of this department--even after making all reasonable deductions for the plans not carried out--at least justifies all that has been said thus far concerning the City's present proportions and rate of progress. The United States census of 1880 declared the City's population of 566,663 to be contained in 115,076 families; thus fixing the average membership of each family at 4.92. It is hardly credible therefore that the permits issued for residence purposes during the past year represent the City's actual growth during any given period of twelve months. If families now average as then, these permits would furnish homes for more than 51,000 souls--a number, to my mind, in excess of the City's yearly growth. We must, therefore, a.s.sume that there is some discrepancy between the methods of designation employed in 1880 by the United States officials and those of the building department, or that the average number of persons in each family is now less than in 1880, or that these permits represent more than the actual needs of the period during which they were granted. Probably the last supposition is best founded. Like New York, the City may have been overbuilt during the past two or three years, and this record, no doubt, exhibits some permits not acted upon and some construction due to the impetus of the speculative ardor of 1885, 1886, and 1887. This view is confirmed by the statement of the number and cost of the buildings actually completed during the calendar years 1886 and 1887, and the first eleven months of the present year.

Year. No. of Buildings. Estimated Cost.

1886. 3,990. $20,318,485.

1887. 3,875. 18,008,325.

1888 to Dec. 1. 3,155. 15,711,070.

While these figures, together with the record of the twelve months ending upon November 30, 1888, as already given, can not, from their nature, lead to a precise mathematical conclusion, they indicate most clearly a degree of activity in construction in which a slight decline in rapidity might be a cause for congratulation rather than for regret. The substantial prosperity of the City was at one time threatened by the over-speculative temper of builders. Conservative witnesses now think that the normal relation of supply and demand has been partially restored. The interests of labor are directly concerned to avoid premature and forced development in so important an industry.