5. The phrase "to consult with the j.a.panese Government" in connection with questions of pledging the local taxes for raising loans and the loans for the construction of railways, in Eastern Inner Mongolia, which is similar to the agreement in Manchuria relating to the matters of the same kind, may be replaced by the phrase "to consult with the j.a.panese capitalists."

The article relating to the opening of trade marts in Eastern Inner Mongolia in respect to location and regulations, may, following their precedent set in Shantung, be the subject of an exchange of notes.

6. From the phrase "those interested in the Company" in Group III of the revised list of demands, the words "those interested in" may be deleted.

7. The j.a.panese version of the Formal Agreement and its annexes shall be the official text or both the Chinese and j.a.panese shall be the official texts.

Whilst it would be an exaggeration to say that open panic followed the filing of this doc.u.ment, there was certainly very acute alarm,--so much so that it is to-day known in Peking that the j.a.panese Legation cabled urgently to Tokio that even better terms could be obtained if the matter was left to the discretion of the men on the spot. But the j.a.panese Government had by now pa.s.sed through a sufficiently anxious time itself, being in possession of certain unmistakable warnings regarding what was likely to happen after a world-peace had come,--if matters were pressed too far. Consequently nothing more was done, and on the following day China signified her acceptance of the Ultimatum in the following terms.

_Reply of the Chinese Government to the Ultimatum of the j.a.panese Government, delivered to the j.a.panese Minister by the Minister of Foreign Affairs on the 8th of May, 1915._

On the 7th of this month, at three o'clock P.M. the Chinese Government received an Ultimatum from the j.a.panese Government together with an Explanatory Note of seven articles. The Ultimatum concluded with the hope that the Chinese Government by six o'clock P.M. on the 9th of May will give a satisfactory reply, and it is hereby declared that if no satisfactory reply is received before or at the specified time, the j.a.panese Government will take steps she may deem necessary.

The Chinese Government with a view to preserving the peace of the Far East hereby accepts, with the exception of those five articles of Group V postponed for later negotiation, all the articles of Group I, II, III, and IV and the exchange of notes in connection with f.u.kien Province in Group V as contained in the revised proposals presented on the 26th of April, and in accordance with the Explanatory Note of seven articles accompanying the Ultimatum of the j.a.panese Government with the hope that thereby all the outstanding questions are settled, so that the cordial relationship between the two countries may be further consolidated. The j.a.panese Minister is hereby requested to appoint a day to call at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to make the literary improvement of the text and sign the Agreement as soon as possible.

Thus ended one of the most extraordinary diplomatic negotiations ever undertaken in Peking.

FOOTNOTES:

[13] Refers to preaching Buddhism.

[14] The reader will observe, that the expression "Hanyehping enterprises" is compounded by linking together characters denoting the triple industry.

[15] Six articles found in j.a.pan's Revised Demands are omitted here as they had already been initialled by the Chinese Foreign Minister and the j.a.panese Minister.

CHAPTER VII

THE ORIGIN OF THE TWENTY-ONE DEMANDS

The key to this remarkable business was supplied by a cover sent anonymously to the writer during the course of these negotiations with no indication as to its origin. The doc.u.ments which this envelope contained are so interesting that they merit attention at the hands of all students of history, explaining as they do the psychology of the Demands as well as throwing much light on the manner in which the world-war has been viewed in j.a.pan.

The first doc.u.ment is purely introductory, but is none the less interesting. It is a fragment, or rather a _precis_ of the momentous conversation which took place between Yuan Shih-kai and the j.a.panese Minister when the latter personally served the Demands on the Chief Executive and took the opportunity to use language unprecedented even in the diplomatic history of Peking.

The _precis_ begins in a curious way. After saying that "the j.a.panese Minister tried to influence President Yuan Shih-kai with the following words," several long lines of asterisks suggest that after reflection the unknown chronicler had decided, for political reasons of the highest importance, to allow others to guess how the "conversation" opened. From the context it seems absolutely clear that the excised words have to deal with the possibility of the re-establishment of the Empire in China--a very important conclusion in view of what followed later in the year. Indeed there is no reason to doubt that the j.a.panese Envoy actually told Yuan Shih-kai that as he was already virtually Emperor it lay within his power to settle the whole business and to secure his position at one blow. In any case the _precis_ begins with these illuminating sentences:

... Furthermore, the Chinese revolutionists are in close touch and have intimate relations with numerous irresponsible j.a.panese, some of whom have great influence and whose policy is for strong measures. Our Government has not been influenced by this policy, but if your Government does not quickly agree to these stipulations, it will be impossible to prevent some of our irresponsible people from inciting the Chinese revolutionists to create trouble in China.

The majority of the j.a.panese people are also opposed to President Yuan and Yuan's Government. They all declare that the President entertains anti-j.a.panese feeling and adopts the policy of "befriending the Far" (Europe and America) and "antagonizing the Near" (j.a.pan). j.a.panese public opinion is therefore exceedingly hostile.

Our Government has all along from first to last exerted its best efforts to help the Chinese Government, and if the Chinese Government will speedily agree to these stipulations it will have thus manifested its friendship for j.a.pan.

The j.a.panese people will then be able to say that the President never entertained anti-j.a.panese feelings, or adopted the policy of "befriending the Far and antagonizing the Near." Will not this then be indeed a bona fide proof of our friendly relations?

The j.a.panese Government also will then be inclined to render a.s.sistance to President Yuan's Government whenever it is necessary....

We are admittedly living in a remarkable age which is making waste paper of our dearest principles. But in all the welter which the world war has made it would be difficult to find anything more extraordinary than these few paragraphs. j.a.pan, through her official representative, boldly tears down the veil hiding her ambitions, and using the undoubted menace which Chinese revolutionary activities then held for the Peking Government, declares in so many words that unless President Yuan Shih-kai bows his head to the dictation of Tokio, the duel which began in Seoul twenty-five years ago would be openly resumed.

Immediately following the "conversation" is the princ.i.p.al doc.u.ment in the dossier. This is nothing less than an exhaustive Memorandum, divided into two sections, containing the policy advocated by the j.a.panese secret society, called the Black Dragon Society, which is said to have a.s.sumed that name on account of the members (military officers) having studied the situation in the Heilungchiang (or "Black Dragon") province of Manchuria. The memorandum is the most remarkable doc.u.ment dealing with the Far East which has come to light since the famous Ca.s.sini Convention was published in 1896. Written presumably late in the autumn of 1914 and immediately presented to the j.a.panese Government, it may undoubtedly be called the fulminate which exploded the j.a.panese mine of the 18th January, 1915. It shows such sound knowledge of world-conditions, and is so scientific in its detachment that little doubt can exist that distinguished j.a.panese took part in its drafting.

It can therefore be looked upon as a genuine expression of the highly educated j.a.panese mind, and as such cannot fail to arouse serious misgivings. The first part is a general review of the European War and the Chinese Question: the second is concerned with the Defensive Alliance between China and j.a.pan, which is looked upon as the one goal of all j.a.panese Diplomacy.

PART I. THE EUROPEAN WAR AND THE CHINESE QUESTION

The present gigantic struggle in Europe has no parallel in history.

Not only will the equilibrium of Europe be affected and its effect felt all over the globe, but its results will create a New Era in the political and social world. Therefore, whether or not the Imperial j.a.panese Government can settle the Far Eastern Question and bring to realization our great Imperial policy depends on our being able to skilfully avail ourselves of the world's general trend of affairs so as to extend our influence and to decide upon a course of action towards China which shall be practical in execution. If our authorities and people view the present European War with indifference and without deep concern, merely devoting their attention to the attack on Kiaochow, neglecting the larger issues of the war, they will have brought to nought our great Imperial policy, and committed a blunder greater than which it can not be conceived.

We are constrained to submit this statement of policy for the consideration of our authorities, not because we are fond of argument but because we are deeply anxious for our national welfare.

No one at present can foretell the outcome of the European War. If the Allies meet with reverses and victory shall crown the arms of the Germans and Austrians, German militarism will undoubtedly dominate the European Continent and extend southward and eastward to other parts of the world. Should such a state of affairs happen to take place the consequences resulting therefrom will be indeed great and extensive. On this account we must devote our most serious attention to the subject. If, on the other hand, the Germans and Austrians should be crushed by the Allies, Germany will be deprived of her present status as a Federated State under a Kaiser. The Federation will be disintegrated into separate states, and Prussia will have to be content with the status of a second-rate Power.

Austria and Hungary, on account of this defeat, will consequently be divided. What their final fate shall be, no one would now venture to predict. In the meantime Russia will annex Galicia and the Austrian Poland: France will repossess Alsace and Lorraine: Great Britain will occupy the German Colonies in Africa and the South Pacific; Servia and Montenegro will take Bosnia, Herzegovina and a certain portion of Austrian Territory; thus making such great changes in the map of Europe that even the Napoleonic War in 1815 could not find a parallel.

When these events take place, not only will Europe experience great changes, but we should not ignore the fact that they will occur also in China and in the South Pacific. After Russia has replaced Germany in the territories lost by Germany and Austria, she will hold a controlling influence in Europe, and, for a long time to come, will have nothing to fear from her western frontier. Immediately after the war she will make an effort to carry out her policy of expansion in the East and will not relax that effort until she has acquired a controlling influence in China. At the same time Great Britain will strengthen her position in the Yangtsze Valley and prohibit any other country from getting a footing there. France will do likewise in Yunnan province using it as her base of operations for further encroachments upon China and never hesitate to extend her advantages. We must therefore seriously study the situation remembering always that the combined action of Great Britain, Russia, and France will not only affect Europe but that we can even foresee that it will also affect China.

Whether this combined action on the part of England, France and Russia is to terminate at the end of the war or to continue to operate, we can not now predict. But after peace in Europe is restored, these Powers will certainly turn their attention to the expansion of their several spheres of interest in China, and, in the adjustment, their interests will most likely conflict with one another. If their interests do not conflict, they will work jointly to solve the Chinese Question. On this point we have not the least doubt. If England, France and Russia are actually to combine for the coercion of China, what course is to be adopted by the Imperial j.a.panese Government to meet the situation? What proper means shall we employ to maintain our influence and extend our interests within this ring of rivalry and compet.i.tion? It is necessary that we bear in mind the final results of the European War and forestall the trend of events succeeding it so as to be able to decide upon a policy towards China and determine the action to be ultimately taken. If we remain pa.s.sive, the Imperial j.a.panese Government's policy towards China will lose that subjective influence and our diplomacy will be checked for ever by the combined force of the other Powers. The peace of the Far East will be thus endangered and even the existence of the j.a.panese Empire as a nation will no doubt be imperilled. It is therefore our first important duty at this moment to enquire of our Government what course is to be adopted to face that general situation after the war? What preparations are being made to meet the combined pressure of the Allies upon China?

What policy has been followed to solve the Chinese Question? When the European War is terminated and peace restored we are not concerned so much with the question whether it be the Dual Monarchies or the Triple Entente which emerge victorious but whether, in antic.i.p.ation of the future expansion of European influence in the Continents of Europe and Asia, the Imperial j.a.panese Government should or should not hesitate to employ force to check the movement before this occurrence. Now is the most opportune moment for j.a.pan to quickly solve the Chinese Question. Such an opportunity will not occur for hundreds of years to come. Not only is it j.a.pan's divine duty to act now, but present conditions in China favour the execution of such a plan. We should by all means decide and act at once. If our authorities do not avail themselves of this rare opportunity, great difficulty will surely be encountered in future in the settlement of this Chinese Question.

j.a.pan will be isolated from the European Powers after the war, and will be regarded by them with envy and jealousy just as Germany is now regarded. Is it not then a vital necessity for j.a.pan to solve at this very moment the Chinese Question?

No one--not even those who care nothing for politics--can deny that there is in this doc.u.ment an astounding disclosure of the mental att.i.tude of the j.a.panese not only towards their enemies but towards their friends as well. They trust n.o.body, befriend n.o.body, envy n.o.body; they content themselves with believing that the whole world may in the not distant future turn against them. The burden of their argument swings just as much against their British ally as against Germany and Austria; and the one and only matter which preoccupies j.a.panese who make it their business to think about such things is to secure that j.a.pan shall forestall Europe in seizing control of China. It is admitted in so many words that it is too early to know who is to triumph in the gigantic European struggle; it is also admitted that Germany will forever be the enemy. At the same time it is expected, should the issue of the struggle be clear-cut and decisive in favour of the Allies, that a new three-Power combination formed by England, France and Russia may be made to operate against j.a.pan. Although the alliance with England, twice renewed since 1902, should occupy as important a place in the Far East as the _Entente_ between England and France occupies in Europe, not one j.a.panese in a hundred knows or cares anything about such an arrangement; and even if he has knowledge of it, he coolly a.s.signs to his country's major international commitment a minimum and constantly diminishing importance. In his view the British Alliance is nothing but a piece of paper which may be consumed in the great bonfire now shedding such a lurid light over the world. What is germane to the matter is his own plan, his own method of taking up arms in a sea of troubles. The second part of the Black Dragon Society's Memorandum, pursuing the argument logically and inexorably and disclosing traces of real political genius, makes this unalterably clear.

Having established clearly the att.i.tude of j.a.pan towards the world--and more particularly towards the rival political combinations now locked together in a terrible death-struggle, this second part of the Memorandum is concerned solely with China and can be broken into two convenient sections. The first section is constructive--the plan for the reconstruction of China is outlined in terms suited to the j.a.panese genius. This part begins with an illuminating piece of rhetoric.

PART II. THE CHINESE QUESTION AND THE DEFENSIVE ALLIANCE

It is a very important matter of policy whether the j.a.panese Government, in obedience to its divine mission, shall solve the Chinese Question in a heroic manner by making China voluntarily rely upon j.a.pan. To force China to such a position there is nothing else for the Imperial j.a.panese Government to do but to take advantage of the present opportunity to seize the reins of political and financial power and to enter by all means into a defensive alliance with her under secret terms as enumerated below:

_The Secret Terms of the Defensive Alliance_

The Imperial j.a.panese Government, with due respect for the Sovereignty and Integrity of China and with the object and hope of maintaining the peace of the Far East, undertakes to share the responsibility of co-operating with China to guard her against internal trouble and foreign invasion and China shall accord to j.a.pan special facilities in the matter of China's National Defence, or the protection of j.a.pan's special rights and privileges and for these objects the following treaty of Alliance is to be entered into between the two contracting parties:

1. When there is internal trouble in China or when she is at war with another nation or nations, j.a.pan shall send her army to render a.s.sistance, to a.s.sume the responsibility of guarding Chinese territory and to maintain peace and order in China.

2. China agrees to recognize j.a.pan's privileged position in South Manchuria and Inner Mongolia and to cede the sovereign rights of these regions to j.a.pan to enable her to carry out a scheme of local defence on a permanent basis.

3. After the j.a.panese occupation of Kiaochow, j.a.pan shall acquire all the rights and privileges. .h.i.therto enjoyed by the Germans in regard to railways, mines and all other interests, and after peace and order is restored in Tsingtao, the place shall be handed back to China to be opened as an International Treaty port.

4. For the maritime defence of China and j.a.pan, China shall lease strategic harbours along the coast of the f.u.kien province to j.a.pan to be converted into naval bases and grant to j.a.pan in the said province all railway and mining rights.

5. For the reorganization of the Chinese army China shall entrust the training and drilling of the army to j.a.pan.

6. For the unification of China's firearms and munitions of war, China shall adopt firearms of j.a.panese pattern, and at the same time establish a.r.s.enals (with the help of j.a.pan) in different strategic points.

7. With the object of creating and maintaining a Chinese Navy, China shall entrust the training of her navy to j.a.pan.

8. With the object of reorganizing her finances and improving the methods of taxation, China shall entrust the work to j.a.pan, and the latter shall elect competent financial experts who shall act as first-cla.s.s advisers to the Chinese Government.

9. China shall engage j.a.panese educational experts as educational advisers and extensively establish schools in different parts of the country to teach j.a.panese so as to raise the educational standard of the country.