I believe people are well intentioned. But I have great respect for the corrosive influence of bias, systematic distortions of thought, the power of rationalization, the guises of self-interest, and the inevitability of unintended consequences.

I have more respect for people who change their views after acquiring new information than for those who cling to views they held thirty years ago. The world changes. Ideologues and zealots don't.

In the thirty-five-odd years since the environmental movement came into existence, science has undergone a major revolution. This revolution has brought new understanding of nonlinear dynamics, complex systems, chaos theory, catastrophe theory. It has transformed the way we think about evolution and ecology. Yet these no-longer-new ideas have hardly penetrated the thinking of environmental activists, which seems oddly fixed in the concepts and rhetoric of the 1970s.

We haven't the foggiest notion how to preserve what we term "wilderness," and we had better study it in the field and learn how to do so. I see no evidence that we are conducting such research in a humble, rational, and systematic way. I therefore hold little hope for wilderness management in the twenty-first century. I blame environmental organizations every bit as much as developers and strip miners. There is no difference in outcomes between greed and incompetence.

We need a new environmental movement, with new goals and new organizations. We need more people working in the field, in the actual environment, and fewer people behind computer screens. We need more scientists and many fewer lawyers.

We cannot hope to manage a complex system such as the environment through litigation. We can only change its state temporarily-usually by preventing something-with eventual results that we cannot predict and ultimately cannot control.

Nothing is more inherently political than our shared physical environment, and nothing is more ill served by allegiance to a single political party. Precisely because the environment is shared it cannot be managed by one faction according to its own economic or aesthetic preferences. Sooner or later, the opposing faction will take power, and previous policies will be reversed. Stable management of the environment requires recognition that all preferences have their place: snowmobilers and fly fishermen, dirt bikers and hikers, developers and preservationists. These preferences are at odds, and their incompatibility cannot be avoided. But resolving incompatible goals is a true function of politics.

We desperately need a nonpartisan, blinded funding mechanism to conduct research to determine appropriate policy. Scientists are only too aware whom they are working for. Those who fund research-whether a drug company, a government agency, or an environmental organization-always have a particular outcome in mind. Research funding is almost never open-ended or open-minded. Scientists know that continued funding depends on delivering the results the funders desire. As a result, environmental organization "studies" are every bit as biased and suspect as industry "studies." Government "studies" are similarly biased according to who is running the department or administration at the time. No faction should be given a free pass.

I am certain there is too much certainty in the world.

I personally experience a profound pleasure being in nature. My happiest days each year are those I spend in wilderness. I wish natural environments to be preserved for future generations. I am not satisfied they will be preserved in sufficient quantities, or with sufficient skill. I conclude that the "exploiters of the environment" include environmental organizations, government organizations, and big business. All have equally dismal track records.

Everybody has an agenda. Except me.

APPENDIX I.

Why Politicized Science Is Dangerous Imagine that there is a new scientific theory that warns of an impending crisis, and points to a way out.

This theory quickly draws support from leading scientists, politicians, and celebrities around the world. Research is funded by distinguished philanthropies, and carried out at prestigious universities. The crisis is reported frequently in the media. The science is taught in college and high school classrooms.

I don't mean global warming. I'm talking about another theory, which rose to prominence a century ago.

Its supporters included Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Winston Churchill. It was approved by Supreme Court justices Oliver Wendell Holmes and Louis Brandeis, who ruled in its favor. The famous names who supported it included Alexander Graham Bell, inventor of the telephone; activist Margaret Sanger; botanist Luther Burbank; Leland Stanford, founder of Stanford University; the novelist H. G. Wells; the playwright George Bernard Shaw; and hundreds of others. Nobel Prize winners gave support. Research was backed by the Carnegie and Rockefeller Foundations. The Cold Springs Harbor Institute was built to carry out this research, but important work was also done at Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Stanford, and Johns Hopkins. Legislation to address the crisis was passed in states from New York to California.

These efforts had the support of the National Academy of Sciences, the American Medical Association, and the National Research Council. It was said that if Jesus were alive, he would have supported this effort.

All in all, the research, legislation, and molding of public opinion surrounding the theory went on for almost half a century. Those who opposed the theory were shouted down and called reactionary, blind to reality, or just plain ignorant. But in hindsight, what is surprising is that so few people objected.

Today, we know that this famous theory that gained so much support was actually pseudoscience. The crisis it claimed was nonexistent. And the actions taken in the name of this theory were morally and criminally wrong. Ultimately, they led to the deaths of millions of people.

The theory was eugenics, and its history is so dreadful-and, to those who were caught up in it, so embarrassing-that it is now rarely discussed. But it is a story that should be well known to every citizen, so that its horrors are not repeated.

The theory of eugenics postulated a crisis of the gene pool leading to the deterioration of the human race. The best human beings were not breeding as rapidly as the inferior ones-the foreigners, immigrants, Jews, degenerates, the unfit, and the "feeble minded." Francis Galton, a respected British scientist, first speculated about this area, but his ideas were taken far beyond anything he intended. They were adopted by science-minded Americans, as well as those who had no interest in science but who were worried about the immigration of inferior races early in the twentieth century-"dangerous human pests" who represented "the rising tide of imbeciles" and who were polluting the best of the human race.

The eugenicists and the immigrationists joined forces to put a stop to this. The plan was to identify individuals who were feeble-minded-Jews were agreed to be largely feeble-minded, but so were many foreigners, as well as blacks-and stop them from breeding by isolation in institutions or by sterilization.

As Margaret Sanger said, "Fostering the good-for-nothing at the expense of the good is an extreme cruelty...there is no greater curse to posterity than that of bequeathing them an increasing population of imbeciles." She spoke of the burden of caring for "this dead weight of human waste."

Such views were widely shared. H. G. Wells spoke against "ill-trained swarms of inferior citizens." Theodore Roosevelt said that "Society has no business to permit degenerates to reproduce their kind." Luther Burbank: "Stop permitting criminals and weaklings to reproduce." George Bernard Shaw said that only eugenics could save mankind.

There was overt racism in this movement, exemplified by texts such as The Rising Tide of Color Against White World Supremacy, The Rising Tide of Color Against White World Supremacy, by American author Lothrop Stoddard. But, at the time, racism was considered an unremarkable aspect of the effort to attain a marvelous goal-the improvement of humankind in the future. It was this avant-garde notion that attracted the most liberal and progressive minds of a generation. California was one of twenty-nine American states to pass laws allowing sterilization, but it proved the most forward-looking and enthusiastic-more sterilizations were carried out in California than anywhere else in America. by American author Lothrop Stoddard. But, at the time, racism was considered an unremarkable aspect of the effort to attain a marvelous goal-the improvement of humankind in the future. It was this avant-garde notion that attracted the most liberal and progressive minds of a generation. California was one of twenty-nine American states to pass laws allowing sterilization, but it proved the most forward-looking and enthusiastic-more sterilizations were carried out in California than anywhere else in America.

Eugenics research was funded by the Carnegie Foundation, and later by the Rockefeller Foundation. The latter was so enthusiastic that even after the center of the eugenics effort moved to Germany, and involved the gassing of individuals from mental institutions, the Rockefeller Foundation continued to finance German researchers at a very high level. (The foundation was quiet about it, but they were still funding research in 1939, only months before the onset of World War II.) Since the 1920s, American eugenicists had been jealous because the Germans had taken leadership of the movement away from them. The Germans were admirably progressive. They set up ordinary-looking houses where "mental defectives" were brought and interviewed one at a time, before being led into a back room, which was, in fact, a gas chamber. There, they were gassed with carbon monoxide, and their bodies disposed of in a crematorium located on the property.

Eventually, this program was expanded into a vast network of concentration camps located near railroad lines, enabling the efficient transport and killing of ten million undesirables.

After World War II, nobody was a eugenicist, and nobody had ever been a eugenicist. Biographers of the celebrated and the powerful did not dwell on the attractions of this philosphy to their subjects, and sometimes did not mention it at all. Eugenics ceased to be a subject for college classrooms, although some argue that its ideas continue to have currency in disguised form.

But in retrospect, three points stand out. First, despite the construction of Cold Springs Harbor Laboratory, despite the efforts at universities and the pleadings of lawyers, there was no scientific basis for eugenics. In fact, nobody at that time knew what a gene really was. The movement was able to proceed because it employed vague terms never rigorously defined. "Feeble-mindedness" could mean anything from poverty and illiteracy to epilepsy. Similarly, there was no clear definition of "degenerate" or "unfit." Second, the eugenics movement was really a social program masquerading as a scientific one. What drove it was concern about immigration and racism and undesirable people moving into one's neighborhood or country. Once again, vague terminology helped conceal what was really going on.

Third, and most distressing, the scientific establishment in both the United States and Germany did not mount any sustained protest. Quite the contrary. In Germany scientists quickly fell into line with the program. Modern German researchers have gone back to review Nazi documents from the 1930s. They expected to find directives telling scientists what research should be done. But none were necessary. In the words of Ute Deichman, "Scientists, including those who were not members of the [Nazi] party, helped to get funding for their work through their modified behavior and direct cooperation with the state." Deichman speaks of the "active role of scientists themselves in regard to Nazi race policy...where [research] was aimed at confirming the racial doctrine...no external pressure can be documented." German scientists adjusted their research interests to the new policies. And those few who did not adjust disappeared.

A second example of politicized science is quite different in character, but it exemplifies the hazards of government ideology controlling the work of science, and of uncritical media promoting false concepts. Trofim Denisovich Lysenko was a self-promoting peasant who, it was said, "solved the problem of fertilizing the fields without fertilizers and minerals." In 1928 he claimed to have invented a procedure called vernalization, by which seeds were moistened and chilled to enhance the later growth of crops.

Lysenko's methods never faced a rigorous test, but his claim that his treated seeds passed on their characteristics to the next generation represented a revival of Lamarckian ideas at a time when the rest of the world was embracing Mendelian genetics. Josef Stalin was drawn to Lamarckian ideas, which implied a future unbounded by hereditary constraints; he also wanted improved agricultural production. Lysenko promised both, and became the darling of a Soviet media that was on the lookout for stories about clever peasants who had developed revolutionary procedures.

Lysenko was portrayed as a genius, and he milked his celebrity for all it was worth. He was especially skillful at denouncing his opponents. He used questionnaires from farmers to prove that vernalization increased crop yields, and thus avoided any direct tests. Carried on a wave of state-sponsored enthusiasm, his rise was rapid. By 1937, he was a member of the Supreme Soviet.

By then, Lysenko and his theories dominated Russian biology. The result was famines that killed millions, and purges that sent hundreds of dissenting Soviet scientists to the gulags or the firing squads. Lysenko was aggressive in attacking genetics, which was finally banned as "bourgeois pseudo-science" in 1948. There was never any basis for Lysenko's ideas, yet he controlled Soviet research for thirty years. Lysenkoism ended in the 1960s, but Russian biology still has not entirely recovered from that era.

Now we are engaged in a great new theory, that once again has drawn the support of politicians, scientists, and celebrities around the world. Once again, the theory is promoted by major foundations. Once again, the research is carried out at prestigious universities. Once again, legislation is passed and social programs are urged in its name. Once again, critics are few and harshly dealt with.

Once again, the measures being urged have little basis in fact or science. Once again, groups with other agendas are hiding behind a movement that appears high-minded. Once again, claims of moral superiority are used to justify extreme actions. Once again, the fact that some people are hurt is shrugged off because an abstract cause is said to be greater than any human consequences. Once again, vague terms like sustainability sustainability and and generational justice generational justice-terms that have no agreed definition-are employed in the service of a new crisis.

I am not arguing that global warming is the same as eugenics. But the similarities are not superficial. And I do claim that open and frank discussion of the data, and of the issues, is being suppressed. Leading scientific journals have taken strong editorial positions on the side of global warming, which, I argue, they have no business doing. Under the circumstances, any scientist who has doubts understands clearly that they will be wise to mute their expression.

One proof of this suppression is the fact that so many of the outspoken critics of global warming are retired professors. These individuals are no longer seeking grants, and no longer have to face colleagues whose grant applications and career advancement may be jeopardized by their criticisms. In science, the old men are usually wrong. But in politics, the old men are wise, counsel caution, and in the end are often right.

The past history of human belief is a cautionary tale. We have killed thousands of our fellow human beings because we believed they had signed a contract with the devil, and had become witches. We still kill more than a thousand people each year for witchcraft. In my view, there is only one hope for humankind to emerge from what Carl Sagan called "the demon-haunted world" of our past. That hope is science.

But as Alston Chase put it, "when the search for truth is confused with political advocacy, the pursuit of knowledge is reduced to the quest for power."

That is the danger we now face. And that is why the intermixing of science and politics is a bad combination, with a bad history. We must remember the history, and be certain that what we present to the world as knowledge is disinterested and honest.

APPENDIX II.

Sources of Data for Graphs World temperature data has been taken from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, New York (GISS); the Jones, et al. data set from the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK (CRU); and the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) maintained by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and the Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC) of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

The GISS station page is not easy to find from their home page, but it is found at http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/station data/.

The Jones data set reference is P. D. Jones, D. E. Parker, T. J. Osborn, and K. R. Briffa, 1999. Global and hemispheric temperature anomolies-land and marine instrument records. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

Global Historical Climatology Network is maintained at NCDC and CDIAC of Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The home page is http://cdiac. esd.ornl.gov/ghcn/ghcn.html.

Temperature data for the United States comes from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) maintained at NCDC and CDIAC of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which states: "We recommend using USHCN whenever possible for long-term climate analyses...."

The USHCN home page is http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ ushcn/ushcn.html.

The reference is D. R. Easterling, T. R. Karl, E. H. Mason, P. Y. Hughes, D. P. Bowman, R. C. Daniels, and T. A. Boden (eds.). 1996. United States Historical Climatology Network (US HCN) Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Data. United States Historical Climatology Network (US HCN) Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Data. ORNL/CDIAC-87, NDP-019/R3. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. ORNL/CDIAC-87, NDP-019/R3. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

Graphs are generated in Microsoft Excel from tabular data provided on the websites.

The satellite images are from NASA (http://datasystem.earthkam.ucsd.edu). The rendering of the globe image on the title page and part-opener pages is adapted from NASA (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Observatory/ Datasets/tsurf.tovs.html).

BIBLIOGRAPHY.

What follows is a list of books and journal articles I found most useful in preparing this novel. I found the texts by Beckerman, Chase, Huber, Lomborg, and Wildavsky to be particularly revealing.

Environmental science is a contentious and intensely politicized field. No reader should assume that any author listed below agrees with the views I express in this book. Quite the contrary: many of them disagree strongly. I am presenting these references to assist those readers who would like to review my thinking and arrive at their own conclusions.

Aber, John D., and Jerry M. Melillo. Terrestrial Ecosystems. Terrestrial Ecosystems. San Francisco: Harcourt Academic Press, 2001. A standard textbook. San Francisco: Harcourt Academic Press, 2001. A standard textbook.Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises (Report of the Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, National Research Council). Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 2002. The text concludes that abrupt climate change might occur sometime in the future, triggered by mechanisms not yet understood, and that in the meantime more research is needed. Surely no one could object. (Report of the Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, National Research Council). Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 2002. The text concludes that abrupt climate change might occur sometime in the future, triggered by mechanisms not yet understood, and that in the meantime more research is needed. Surely no one could object.Adam, Barbara, Ulrich Beck, and Jost Van Loon. The Risk Society and Beyond. The Risk Society and Beyond. London: Sage Publications, 2000. London: Sage Publications, 2000.Altheide, David L. Creating Fear, News and the Construction of Crisis. Creating Fear, News and the Construction of Crisis. New York: Aldine de Gruyter, 2002. A book about fear and its expanding place in public life. Overlong and repetitive, but addressing a highly significant subject. Some of the statistical analyses are quite amazing. New York: Aldine de Gruyter, 2002. A book about fear and its expanding place in public life. Overlong and repetitive, but addressing a highly significant subject. Some of the statistical analyses are quite amazing.Anderson, J. B. and J. T. Andrews. "Radiocarbon Constraints on Ice Sheet Advance and Retreat in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica." Geology Geology 27 (1999): 17982. 27 (1999): 17982.Anderson, Terry L., and Donald R. Leal. Free Market Environmentalism. Free Market Environmentalism. New York: Palgrave (St. Martin's Press), 2001. The authors argue government management of environmental resources has a poor track record in the former Soviet Union, and in the Western democracies as well. They make the case for the superiority of private and market-based management of environmental resources. Their case histories are particularly interesting. New York: Palgrave (St. Martin's Press), 2001. The authors argue government management of environmental resources has a poor track record in the former Soviet Union, and in the Western democracies as well. They make the case for the superiority of private and market-based management of environmental resources. Their case histories are particularly interesting.Arens, William. The Man-Eating Myth. The Man-Eating Myth. New York: Oxford, 1979. New York: Oxford, 1979.Arquilla, John, and David Ronfeldt, eds. In Athena's Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age In Athena's Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND National Defense Research Institute, 1997. See particularly part III on the advent of netwar and its implications.Aunger, Robert, ed. Darwinizing Culture Darwinizing Culture. New York: Oxford University Press, 2000. See especially the last three chapters, which devastate the trendy concept of memes. There is no better example of the way that trendy quasi-scientific ideas can gain currency even in the face of preexisting evidence that they are baseless. And the text serves as a model for the expression of brisk disagreement without ad hominem characterization.Beck, Ulrich. Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. Trans. Mark Ritter. London: Sage, 1992. This highly influential text by a German sociologist presents a fascinating redefinition of the modern state as protector against industrial society, instead of merely the ground upon which it is built. Trans. Mark Ritter. London: Sage, 1992. This highly influential text by a German sociologist presents a fascinating redefinition of the modern state as protector against industrial society, instead of merely the ground upon which it is built.Beckerman, Wilfred. A Poverty of Reason: Sustainable Development and Economic Growth. A Poverty of Reason: Sustainable Development and Economic Growth. Oakland, Calif.: Independent Institute, 2003. A short, witty, stinging review of sustainability, climate change, and the precautionary principle by an Oxford economist and former member of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution who cares more about the poor of the world than he does the elitist egos of Western environmentalists. Clearly argued and fun to read. Oakland, Calif.: Independent Institute, 2003. A short, witty, stinging review of sustainability, climate change, and the precautionary principle by an Oxford economist and former member of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution who cares more about the poor of the world than he does the elitist egos of Western environmentalists. Clearly argued and fun to read.Bennett, W. Lance. News: The Politics of Illusion. News: The Politics of Illusion. New York: Addison-Wesley, 2003. New York: Addison-Wesley, 2003.Black, Edwin. War Against the Weak: Eugenics and America's Campaign to Create a Master Race. War Against the Weak: Eugenics and America's Campaign to Create a Master Race. New York: Four Walls, 2003. The history of the eugenics movement in America and Germany is an unpleasant story, and perhaps for that reason, most texts present it confusingly. This book is an admirably clear narrative. New York: Four Walls, 2003. The history of the eugenics movement in America and Germany is an unpleasant story, and perhaps for that reason, most texts present it confusingly. This book is an admirably clear narrative.Bohm, R. "Urban bias in temperature time series-a case study for the city of Vienna, Austria." Climatic Change Climatic Change 38 (1998): 11328. 38 (1998): 11328.Braithwaite, Roger J. "Glacier mass balance: The first 50 years of international monitoring." Progress in Physical Geography Progress in Physical Geography 26, no. 1 (2002): 7695. 26, no. 1 (2002): 7695. Braithwaite, R. J., and Y. Zhang. "Relationships between interannual variability of glacier mass balance and climate." Braithwaite, R. J., and Y. Zhang. "Relationships between interannual variability of glacier mass balance and climate." Journal of Glaciology Journal of Glaciology 45 (2000): 45662. 45 (2000): 45662.Briggs, Robin. Witches and Neighbors: The Social and Cultural Context of European Witchcraft. Witches and Neighbors: The Social and Cultural Context of European Witchcraft. New York: HarperCollins, 1996. New York: HarperCollins, 1996.Brint, Steven. "Professionals and the Knowledge Economy: Rethinking the Theory of the Postindustrial Society." Current Sociology Current Sociology 49, no. 1 (July 2001): 10132. 49, no. 1 (July 2001): 10132. Brower, Michael, and Warren Leon. Brower, Michael, and Warren Leon. The Consumer's Guide to Effective Environmental Choices: Practical Advice from the Union of Concerned Scientists. The Consumer's Guide to Effective Environmental Choices: Practical Advice from the Union of Concerned Scientists. New York: Three Rivers Press, 1999. Of particular interest for its advice on mundane decisions: paper vs. plastic shopping bags (plastic), cloth vs. disposable diapers (disposable). On broader issues, the analysis is extremely vague and exemplifies the difficulties of determining "sustainable development" that are pointed out by Wilfred Beckerman. New York: Three Rivers Press, 1999. Of particular interest for its advice on mundane decisions: paper vs. plastic shopping bags (plastic), cloth vs. disposable diapers (disposable). On broader issues, the analysis is extremely vague and exemplifies the difficulties of determining "sustainable development" that are pointed out by Wilfred Beckerman. Carson, Rachel. Carson, Rachel. Silent Spring. Silent Spring. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1962. I am old enough to remember reading this poetic persuasive text with alarm and excitement when it was first published; it was clear even then that it would change the world. With the passage of time Carson's text appears more flawed and more overtly polemical. It is, to be blunt, about one-third right and two-thirds wrong. Carson is particularly to be faulted for her specious promotion of the idea that most cancer is caused by the environment. This fear remains in general circulation decades later. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1962. I am old enough to remember reading this poetic persuasive text with alarm and excitement when it was first published; it was clear even then that it would change the world. With the passage of time Carson's text appears more flawed and more overtly polemical. It is, to be blunt, about one-third right and two-thirds wrong. Carson is particularly to be faulted for her specious promotion of the idea that most cancer is caused by the environment. This fear remains in general circulation decades later. Castle, Terry. "Contagious Folly." In Chandler, Davidson, and Harootunian, Castle, Terry. "Contagious Folly." In Chandler, Davidson, and Harootunian, Questions of Evidence. Questions of Evidence. Chandler, James, Arnold I. Davidson, and Harry Harootunian. Chandler, James, Arnold I. Davidson, and Harry Harootunian. Questions of Evidence: Proof, Practice and Persuasion Across the Disciplines. Questions of Evidence: Proof, Practice and Persuasion Across the Disciplines. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993. Changnon, Stanley A. "Impacts of 199798 El Nino-Generated Weather in the United States." Changnon, Stanley A. "Impacts of 199798 El Nino-Generated Weather in the United States." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80, no. 9, (1999): 181928. 80, no. 9, (1999): 181928. Chapin, F. Stuart, Pamela A. Matson, and Harold A. Mooney. Chapin, F. Stuart, Pamela A. Matson, and Harold A. Mooney. Principles of Terrestrial Ecosystems Ecology. Principles of Terrestrial Ecosystems Ecology. New York: Springer-Verlag, 2002. Clearer and with more technical detail than most ecology texts. New York: Springer-Verlag, 2002. Clearer and with more technical detail than most ecology texts. Chase, Alston. Chase, Alston. In a Dark Wood: The Fight over Forests and the Myths of Nature. In a Dark Wood: The Fight over Forests and the Myths of Nature. New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction Publishers, 2001. Essential reading. This book is a history of the conflict over the forests of the Northwest, a cheerless and distressing story. As a former professor of philosophy, the author is one of the few writers in the environmental field who shows the slightest interest in ideas-where they come from, what consequences have flowed from them in the historical past, and therefore what consequences are likely to flow from them now. Chase discusses such notions as the mystic vision of wilderness and the balance of nature from the standpoint of both science and philosophy. He is contemptuous of much conventional wisdom and the muddle-headed attitudes he calls "California cosmology." The book is long and sometimes rambling, but extremely rewarding. New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction Publishers, 2001. Essential reading. This book is a history of the conflict over the forests of the Northwest, a cheerless and distressing story. As a former professor of philosophy, the author is one of the few writers in the environmental field who shows the slightest interest in ideas-where they come from, what consequences have flowed from them in the historical past, and therefore what consequences are likely to flow from them now. Chase discusses such notions as the mystic vision of wilderness and the balance of nature from the standpoint of both science and philosophy. He is contemptuous of much conventional wisdom and the muddle-headed attitudes he calls "California cosmology." The book is long and sometimes rambling, but extremely rewarding.---. Playing God in Yellowstone: The Destruction of America's First National Park. Playing God in Yellowstone: The Destruction of America's First National Park. New York: Atlantic, 1986. Essential reading. Arguably the first and clearest critique of ever-changing environmental beliefs and their practical consequences. Anyone who assumes we know how to manage wilderness areas needs to read this sobering history of the century-long mismanagement of Yellowstone, the first national park. Chase's text has been reviled in some quarters, but to my knowledge, never seriously disputed. New York: Atlantic, 1986. Essential reading. Arguably the first and clearest critique of ever-changing environmental beliefs and their practical consequences. Anyone who assumes we know how to manage wilderness areas needs to read this sobering history of the century-long mismanagement of Yellowstone, the first national park. Chase's text has been reviled in some quarters, but to my knowledge, never seriously disputed. Chen, L., W. Zhu, X. Zhou, and Z. Zhou, "Characteristics of the heat island effect in Shanghai and its possible mechanism." Chen, L., W. Zhu, X. Zhou, and Z. Zhou, "Characteristics of the heat island effect in Shanghai and its possible mechanism." Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 20 (2003): 991-1001. 20 (2003): 991-1001. Choi, Y., H.-S. Jung, K.-Y. Nam, and W.-T. Kwon, "Adjusting urban bias in the regional mean surface temperature series of South Korea, 196899." Choi, Y., H.-S. Jung, K.-Y. Nam, and W.-T. Kwon, "Adjusting urban bias in the regional mean surface temperature series of South Korea, 196899." International Journal of Climatology International Journal of Climatology 23 (2003): 57791. 23 (2003): 57791. Christianson, Gale E. Christianson, Gale E. Greenhouse: The 200-Year Story of Global Warming. Greenhouse: The 200-Year Story of Global Warming. New York: Penguin, 1999. New York: Penguin, 1999. Chylek, P., J. E. Box, and G. Lesins. "Global Warming and the Greenland Ice Sheet." Chylek, P., J. E. Box, and G. Lesins. "Global Warming and the Greenland Ice Sheet." Climatic Change Climatic Change 63 (2004): 20121. 63 (2004): 20121. Comiso, J. C. "Variability and Trends in Antarctic Surface Temperatures From Comiso, J. C. "Variability and Trends in Antarctic Surface Temperatures From in situ in situ and Satellite Infrared Measurements." and Satellite Infrared Measurements." Journal of Climate Journal of Climate 13 (2000): 167496. 13 (2000): 167496. Cook, Timothy E. Cook, Timothy E. Governing with the News: The News Media as a Political Institution. Governing with the News: The News Media as a Political Institution. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1998. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1998. Cooke, Roger M. Cooke, Roger M. Experts in Uncertainty. Experts in Uncertainty. New York: Oxford University Press, 1991. New York: Oxford University Press, 1991. Davis, Ray Jay, and Lewis Grant. Davis, Ray Jay, and Lewis Grant. Weather Modification Technology and Law. Weather Modification Technology and Law. AAAS Selected Symposium. Boulder, Col.: Westview Press, Inc., 1978. Of historical interest only. AAAS Selected Symposium. Boulder, Col.: Westview Press, Inc., 1978. Of historical interest only. Deichmann, Ute. Deichmann, Ute. Biologist Under Hitler, Biologist Under Hitler, tr. Thomas Dunlap. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1996. Difficult in structure, disturbing in content. tr. Thomas Dunlap. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1996. Difficult in structure, disturbing in content.Doran, P. T., J. C. Priscu, W. B. Lyons, J. E. Walsh, A. G. Fountain, D. M. McKnight, D. L. Moorhead, R. A. Virginia, D. H. Wall, G. D. Clow, C. H. Fritsen, C. P. McKay, and A. N. Parsons. "Antarctic Climate Cooling and Terrestrial Ecosystem Response." Nature Nature 415 (2002): 51720. 415 (2002): 51720. Dorner, Dietrich. Dorner, Dietrich. The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations. The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations. Cambridge, Mass.: Perseus, 1998. What prevents human beings from successfully managing the natural environment and other complex systems? Dozens of pundits have weighed in with their unsubstantiated opinions. Dorner, a cognitive psychologist, performed experiments and found out. Using computer simulations of complex environments, he invited intellectuals to improve the situation. They often made it worse. Those who did well gathered information before acting, thought systemically, reviewed progress, and corrected their course often. Those who did badly clung to their theories, acted too quickly, did not correct course, and blamed others when things went wrong. Dorner concludes that our failures in managing complex systems do not represent any inherent lack of human capability. Rather they reflect bad habits of thought and lazy procedures. Cambridge, Mass.: Perseus, 1998. What prevents human beings from successfully managing the natural environment and other complex systems? Dozens of pundits have weighed in with their unsubstantiated opinions. Dorner, a cognitive psychologist, performed experiments and found out. Using computer simulations of complex environments, he invited intellectuals to improve the situation. They often made it worse. Those who did well gathered information before acting, thought systemically, reviewed progress, and corrected their course often. Those who did badly clung to their theories, acted too quickly, did not correct course, and blamed others when things went wrong. Dorner concludes that our failures in managing complex systems do not represent any inherent lack of human capability. Rather they reflect bad habits of thought and lazy procedures. Dowie, Mark. Dowie, Mark. Losing Ground: American Environmentalism at the Close of the Twentieth Century. Losing Ground: American Environmentalism at the Close of the Twentieth Century. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1995. A former editor of Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1995. A former editor of Mother Jones Mother Jones concludes that the American environmental movement has lost relevance through compromise and capitulation. Well written, but weakly documented, the book is most interesting for the frame of mind it conveys-an uncompromising posture that rarely specifies what solutions would be satisfactory. This makes the text essentially nonscientific in its outlook and its implications, and all the more interesting for that. concludes that the American environmental movement has lost relevance through compromise and capitulation. Well written, but weakly documented, the book is most interesting for the frame of mind it conveys-an uncompromising posture that rarely specifies what solutions would be satisfactory. This makes the text essentially nonscientific in its outlook and its implications, and all the more interesting for that. Drake, Frances. Drake, Frances. Global Warming: The Science of Climate Change. Global Warming: The Science of Climate Change. New York: Oxford University Press, 2000. This well-written overview for college students can be read by any interested reader. New York: Oxford University Press, 2000. This well-written overview for college students can be read by any interested reader. Drucker, Peter. Drucker, Peter. Post-Capitalist Society. Post-Capitalist Society. New York: Harper Business, 1993. New York: Harper Business, 1993.Eagleton, Terry. Ideology: An Introduction. Ideology: An Introduction. New York: Verso, 1991. New York: Verso, 1991.Edgerton, Robert B. Sick Societies: Challenging the Myth of Primitive Harmony. Sick Societies: Challenging the Myth of Primitive Harmony. New York: Free Press, 1992. An excellent summary of the evidence disputing the notion of the noble savage that goes on to consider whether cultures adopt maladaptive beliefs and practices. The author concludes that all cultures do so. The text also attacks the currently trendy academic notion of "unconscious" problem-solving, in which primitive cultures are assumed to be acting in an ecologically sound fashion, even when they appear wasteful and destructive. Edgerton argues they aren't doing anything of the sort-they New York: Free Press, 1992. An excellent summary of the evidence disputing the notion of the noble savage that goes on to consider whether cultures adopt maladaptive beliefs and practices. The author concludes that all cultures do so. The text also attacks the currently trendy academic notion of "unconscious" problem-solving, in which primitive cultures are assumed to be acting in an ecologically sound fashion, even when they appear wasteful and destructive. Edgerton argues they aren't doing anything of the sort-they are are wasteful and destructive. wasteful and destructive. Edwards, Paul. N., and Stephen Schneider. "The 1995 IPCC Report: Broad Consensus or 'Scientific Cleansing'?" Edwards, Paul. N., and Stephen Schneider. "The 1995 IPCC Report: Broad Consensus or 'Scientific Cleansing'?" EcoFable/Ecoscience EcoFable/Ecoscience 1, no. 1 (1997): 39. A spirited argument in defense of changes to the 1995 IPCC report by Ben Santer. However, the article focuses on the controversy that resulted and does not review in detail the changes to the text that were made. Thus the paper talks about the controversy without examining its substance. 1, no. 1 (1997): 39. A spirited argument in defense of changes to the 1995 IPCC report by Ben Santer. However, the article focuses on the controversy that resulted and does not review in detail the changes to the text that were made. Thus the paper talks about the controversy without examining its substance.Einarsson, Porleifur. Geology of Iceland. Geology of Iceland. Trans. Georg Douglas. Reykjavik: Mal og menning, 1999. Surely one of the clearest geology textbooks ever written. The author is professor of geology at the University of Iceland. Trans. Georg Douglas. Reykjavik: Mal og menning, 1999. Surely one of the clearest geology textbooks ever written. The author is professor of geology at the University of Iceland.Etheridge, D. M., et al. "Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn." over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn." Journal of Geophysical Research Journal of Geophysical Research 101 (1996): 411528. 101 (1996): 411528. Fagan, Brian. Fagan, Brian. The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History 13001850. The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History 13001850. New York: Basic Books, 2000. Our experience of climate is limited to the span of our lives. The degree to which climate has varied in the past, and even in historical times, is hard for anyone to conceive. This book, by an archaeologist who writes extremely well, makes clear through historical detail how much warmer-and colder-it has been during the last thousand years. New York: Basic Books, 2000. Our experience of climate is limited to the span of our lives. The degree to which climate has varied in the past, and even in historical times, is hard for anyone to conceive. This book, by an archaeologist who writes extremely well, makes clear through historical detail how much warmer-and colder-it has been during the last thousand years. Feynman, Richard. Feynman, Richard. The Character of Physical Law. The Character of Physical Law. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1965. Feynman exemplifies the crispness of thought in physics as compared with the mushy subjectivity of fields such as ecology or climate research. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1965. Feynman exemplifies the crispness of thought in physics as compared with the mushy subjectivity of fields such as ecology or climate research. Finlayson-Pitts, Barbara J., and James N. Pitts, Jr. Finlayson-Pitts, Barbara J., and James N. Pitts, Jr. Chemistry of the Upper and Lower Atmosphere: Theory, Experiments, and Applications. Chemistry of the Upper and Lower Atmosphere: Theory, Experiments, and Applications. New York: Academic Press, 2000. A clear text that can be read by anyone with a good general science background. New York: Academic Press, 2000. A clear text that can be read by anyone with a good general science background. Fisher, Andy. Fisher, Andy. Radical Ecopsychology: Psychology in the Service of Life. Radical Ecopsychology: Psychology in the Service of Life. Albany, N.Y.: State University of New York Press, 2002. An astonishing text by a psychotherapist. In my opinion, the greatest problem for all observers of the world is to determine whether their perceptions are genuine and verifiable or whether they are merely the projections of inner feelings. This book says it doesn't matter. The text consists almost entirely of unsubstantiated opinions about human nature and our interaction with the natural world. Anecdotal, egotistical, and wholly tautological, it is a dazzling example of unbridled fantasy. It can stand in for a whole literature of related texts in which feeling-expression masquerades as fact. Albany, N.Y.: State University of New York Press, 2002. An astonishing text by a psychotherapist. In my opinion, the greatest problem for all observers of the world is to determine whether their perceptions are genuine and verifiable or whether they are merely the projections of inner feelings. This book says it doesn't matter. The text consists almost entirely of unsubstantiated opinions about human nature and our interaction with the natural world. Anecdotal, egotistical, and wholly tautological, it is a dazzling example of unbridled fantasy. It can stand in for a whole literature of related texts in which feeling-expression masquerades as fact. Flecker, H., and B. C. Cotton. "Fatal bite from octopus." Flecker, H., and B. C. Cotton. "Fatal bite from octopus." Medical Journal of Australia Medical Journal of Australia 2 (1955): 32931. 2 (1955): 32931. Forrester, Jay W. Forrester, Jay W. Principles of Systems. Principles of Systems. Waltham, Mass.: Wright-Allen Press, 1971. Some day Forrester will be acknowledged as one of the most important scientists of the twentieth century. He is one of the first, and surely the most influential, researcher to model complex systems on the computer. He did groundbreaking studies of everything from high-tech corporate behavior to urban renewal, and he was the first to get any inkling of how difficult it is to manage complex systems. His work was an early inspiration for the attempts to model the world that ultimately became the Club of Rome's Waltham, Mass.: Wright-Allen Press, 1971. Some day Forrester will be acknowledged as one of the most important scientists of the twentieth century. He is one of the first, and surely the most influential, researcher to model complex systems on the computer. He did groundbreaking studies of everything from high-tech corporate behavior to urban renewal, and he was the first to get any inkling of how difficult it is to manage complex systems. His work was an early inspiration for the attempts to model the world that ultimately became the Club of Rome's Limits of Growth. Limits of Growth. But the Club didn't understand the most fundamental principles behind Forrester's work. But the Club didn't understand the most fundamental principles behind Forrester's work. Forsyth, Tim. Forsyth, Tim. Critical Political Ecology: The Politics of Environmental Science. Critical Political Ecology: The Politics of Environmental Science. New York: Routledge, 2003. A careful but often critical examination of environmental orthodoxy by a lecturer in environment and development at the London School of Economics. The text contains many important insights I have not seen elsewhere, including the consequences of the IPCC emphasis on computer models (as opposed to other forms of data) and the question of how many environmental effects are usefully regarded as "global." However, the author adopts much of the postmodernist critique of science, and thus refers to certain "laws" of science, when few scientists would grant them such status. New York: Routledge, 2003. A careful but often critical examination of environmental orthodoxy by a lecturer in environment and development at the London School of Economics. The text contains many important insights I have not seen elsewhere, including the consequences of the IPCC emphasis on computer models (as opposed to other forms of data) and the question of how many environmental effects are usefully regarded as "global." However, the author adopts much of the postmodernist critique of science, and thus refers to certain "laws" of science, when few scientists would grant them such status. Freeze, R. Allan. Freeze, R. Allan. The Environmental Pendulum: A Quest for the Truth about Toxic Chemicals, Human Health, and Environmental Protection. The Environmental Pendulum: A Quest for the Truth about Toxic Chemicals, Human Health, and Environmental Protection. Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press, 2000. A university professor with on-the-ground experience dealing with toxic waste sites has written a cranky and highly informative book detailing his experiences and views. One of the few books by a person who is not only academically qualified but experienced in the field. His opinions are complex and sometimes seemingly contradictory. But that's reality. Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press, 2000. A university professor with on-the-ground experience dealing with toxic waste sites has written a cranky and highly informative book detailing his experiences and views. One of the few books by a person who is not only academically qualified but experienced in the field. His opinions are complex and sometimes seemingly contradictory. But that's reality. Furedi, Frank. Furedi, Frank. Culture of Fear: Risk-taking and the Morality of Low Expectation. Culture of Fear: Risk-taking and the Morality of Low Expectation. New York: Continuum, 2002. As Western societies become more affluent and safer, as life expectancy has steadily increased, one might expect the populations to become relaxed and secure. The opposite has happened: Western societies have become panic-stricken and hysterically risk averse. The pattern is evident in everything from environmental issues to the vastly increased supervision of children. This text by a British sociologist discusses why. New York: Continuum, 2002. As Western societies become more affluent and safer, as life expectancy has steadily increased, one might expect the populations to become relaxed and secure. The opposite has happened: Western societies have become panic-stricken and hysterically risk averse. The pattern is evident in everything from environmental issues to the vastly increased supervision of children. This text by a British sociologist discusses why.Gelbspan, Ross. The Heat Is On: The Climate Crisis, the Cover-Up, the Prescription. The Heat Is On: The Climate Crisis, the Cover-Up, the Prescription. Cambridge, Mass.: Perseus, 1998. A reporter who has written extensively on environmental matters presents the classic doomsday scenarios well. Penn and Teller characterize him in scatological terms. Cambridge, Mass.: Perseus, 1998. A reporter who has written extensively on environmental matters presents the classic doomsday scenarios well. Penn and Teller characterize him in scatological terms. Gilovitch, Thomas, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman, eds. Gilovitch, Thomas, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman, eds. Heuristics and Biases: Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2002. Psychologists have created a substantial body of experimental data on human decision making since the 1950s. It has been well replicated and makes essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how people make decisions and how they think about the decisions that others make. The entire volume is compelling (though sometimes disheartening), and articles of particular interest are listed separately. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2002. Psychologists have created a substantial body of experimental data on human decision making since the 1950s. It has been well replicated and makes essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how people make decisions and how they think about the decisions that others make. The entire volume is compelling (though sometimes disheartening), and articles of particular interest are listed separately.Glassner, Barry. The Culture of Fear. The Culture of Fear. New York: Basic Books, 1999. Debunks fear-mongering with precision and calmness. New York: Basic Books, 1999. Debunks fear-mongering with precision and calmness. Glimcher, Paul W. Glimcher, Paul W. Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain. Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2003. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2003. Glynn, Kevin. Glynn, Kevin. Tabloid Culture. Tabloid Culture. Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 2000. Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 2000. Goldstein, William M., and Robin M. Hogarth, eds. Goldstein, William M., and Robin M. Hogarth, eds. Research on Judgment and Decision Making. Research on Judgment and Decision Making. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1997. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1997. Gross, Paul R., and Norman Leavitt. Gross, Paul R., and Norman Leavitt. Higher Superstition: The Academic Left and Its Quarrels with Science. Higher Superstition: The Academic Left and Its Quarrels with Science. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1994. See chapter 6, "The Gates of Eden" for a discussion of environmentalism in the context of current postmodern academic criticism. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1994. See chapter 6, "The Gates of Eden" for a discussion of environmentalism in the context of current postmodern academic criticism. Guyton, Bill. Guyton, Bill. Glaciers of California. Glaciers of California. Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press, 1998. An elegant gem of a book. Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press, 1998. An elegant gem of a book. Hadley Center. "Climate Change, Observations and Predictions, Recent Research on Climate Change Science from the Hadley Center," December 2003. Obtainable at Hadley Center. "Climate Change, Observations and Predictions, Recent Research on Climate Change Science from the Hadley Center," December 2003. Obtainable at www.metoffice.com www.metoffice.com. In sixteen pages the Hadley Center presents the most important arguments relating to climate science and the predictions for future warming from computer models. Beautifully written, and illustrated with graphic sophistication, it easily surpasses other climate science websites and constitutes the best brief introduction for the interested reader. Hansen, James E., Makiko Sato, Andrew Lacis, Reto Ruedy, Ina Tegen, and Elaine Matthews. "Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era." Hansen, James E., Makiko Sato, Andrew Lacis, Reto Ruedy, Ina Tegen, and Elaine Matthews. "Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 95 (October 1998): 1275358. 95 (October 1998): 1275358. Hansen, James E. and Makiko Sato, "Trends of Measured Climate Forcing Agents." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 98 (December 2001): 1477883. Hansen, James E. and Makiko Sato, "Trends of Measured Climate Forcing Agents." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 98 (December 2001): 1477883. Hayes, Wayland Jackson. "Pesticides and Human Toxicity." Hayes, Wayland Jackson. "Pesticides and Human Toxicity." Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 160 (1969): 4054. 160 (1969): 4054. Henderson-Sellers, et al. "Tropical cyclones and global climate change: A post-IPCC assessment." Henderson-Sellers, et al. "Tropical cyclones and global climate change: A post-IPCC assessment." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79 (1997): 938. 79 (1997): 938. Hoffert, Martin, Ken Caldeira, Gregory Benford, David R. Criswell, Christopher Green, Howard Herzog, Atul K. Jain, Haroon S. Kheshgi, Klaus S. Lackner, John S. Lewis, H. Douglas Lightfoot, Wallace Manheimer, John C. Mankins, Michael E. Mauel, L. John Perkins, Michael E. Schlesinger, Tyler Volk, and Tom M. L. Wigley. "Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a Greenhouse Planet." Hoffert, Martin, Ken Caldeira, Gregory Benford, David R. Criswell, Christopher Green, Howard Herzog, Atul K. Jain, Haroon S. Kheshgi, Klaus S. Lackner, John S. Lewis, H. Douglas Lightfoot, Wallace Manheimer, John C. Mankins, Michael E. Mauel, L. John Perkins, Michael E. Schlesinger, Tyler Volk, and Tom M. L. Wigley. "Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a Greenhouse Planet." Science Science 298 (1 November2001): 98187. 298 (1 November2001): 98187. Horowitz, Daniel. Horowitz, Daniel. The Anxieties of Affluence. The Anxieties of Affluence. Amherst, Mass.: University of Massachusetts Press, 2004. Amherst, Mass.: University of Massachusetts Press, 2004.Houghton, John. Global Warming, the Complete Briefing. Global Warming, the Complete Briefing. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1997. Sir John is a leading figure in the IPCC and a world-renowned spokesperson for climate change. He presents a clear statement of the predictions of the global circulation models for future climate. He draws principally from IPCC reports, which this text summarizes and explains. Skip the first chapter, which is scattered and vague, unlike the rest of the book. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1997. Sir John is a leading figure in the IPCC and a world-renowned spokesperson for climate change. He presents a clear statement of the predictions of the global circulation models for future climate. He draws principally from IPCC reports, which this text summarizes and explains. Skip the first chapter, which is scattered and vague, unlike the rest of the book. Huber, Peter, Huber, Peter, Hard Green: Saving the Environment from the Environmentalists, a Conservative Manifesto. Hard Green: Saving the Environment from the Environmentalists, a Conservative Manifesto. New York: Basic Books, 1999. I read dozens of books on the environment, most quite similar in tone and content. This was the first one that made me sit up and pay serious attention. It's not like the others, to put it mildly. Huber holds an engineering degree from MIT and a law degree from Harvard; he has clerked for Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sandra Day O'Connor; he is a fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute. His book criticizes modern environmental thought in both its underlying attitudes and its scientific claims. The text is quick, funny, informed, and relentless. It can be difficult to follow and demands an informed reader. But anyone who clings to the environmental views that evolved in the 1980s and 1990s must answer the arguments of this book. New York: Basic Books, 1999. I read dozens of books on the environment, most quite similar in tone and content. This was the first one that made me sit up and pay serious attention. It's not like the others, to put it mildly. Huber holds an engineering degree from MIT and a law degree from Harvard; he has clerked for Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sandra Day O'Connor; he is a fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute. His book criticizes modern environmental thought in both its underlying attitudes and its scientific claims. The text is quick, funny, informed, and relentless. It can be difficult to follow and demands an informed reader. But anyone who clings to the environmental views that evolved in the 1980s and 1990s must answer the arguments of this book.Inadvertent Climate Modification, Report of the Study of Man's Impact on Climate (SMIC). Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1971. A fascinating early attempt to model climate and predict human interaction with it. Report of the Study of Man's Impact on Climate (SMIC). Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1971. A fascinating early attempt to model climate and predict human interaction with it. IPCC. IPCC. Aviation and the Global Atmosphere. Aviation and the Global Atmosphere. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1999. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1999.---. Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1992. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1992.---. Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1996. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1996.---. Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change Scientific/Technical Analysis. Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change Scientific/Technical Analysis. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1996. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1996.---. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press,1996. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press,1996. ---. ---. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001.---. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001.---. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001.---. Climate Change: The IPCC Response Strategies Climate Change: The IPCC Response Strategies. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Washington, DC: Island Press, 1991.---. Emissions Scenarios. Emissions Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2000. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2000.---. Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry. Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2000. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2000. ---. ---. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1998. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1998. Jacob, Daniel J. Jacob, Daniel J. Introduction to Atmospheric Chemistry. Introduction to Atmospheric Chemistry. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1999. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1999. Joravsky, David. Joravsky, David. The Lysenko Affair. The Lysenko Affair. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1970. A readable account of this depressing episode. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1970. A readable account of this depressing episode. Joughin, I., and S. Tulaczyk. "Positive Mass Balance of the Ross Ice Streams, West Antarctica." Joughin, I., and S. Tulaczyk. "Positive Mass Balance of the Ross Ice Streams, West Antarctica." Science Science 295 (2002): 47680. 295 (2002): 47680. Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky, eds. Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky, eds. Choices, Values and Frames. Choices, Values and Frames. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2000. The authors are responsible for a revolution in our understanding of the psychology behind human decision-making. The history of the environmental movement is characterized by some very positive decisions made on the basis of inadequate information, and some unfortunate decisions made despite good information that argued against the decision. This book sheds light on how such things happen. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2000. The authors are responsible for a revolution in our understanding of the psychology behind human decision-making. The history of the environmental movement is characterized by some very positive decisions made on the basis of inadequate information, and some unfortunate decisions made despite good information that argued against the decision. This book sheds light on how such things happen.Kalnay, Eugenia, and Ming Cai. "Impact of Urbanization and Land-Use on Climate." Nature Nature 423 (29 May 2003): 52831. "Our estimate of .27 C mean surface warming per century due to land use changes is at least twice as high as previous estimates based on urbanization alone." The authors later report a calculation error, raising their estimate [ 423 (29 May 2003): 52831. "Our estimate of .27 C mean surface warming per century due to land use changes is at least twice as high as previous estimates based on urbanization alone." The authors later report a calculation error, raising their estimate [Nature 23 (4 September2003): 102]. "The corrected estimate of the trend in daily mean temperture due to land use changes is .35 C per century." 23 (4 September2003): 102]. "The corrected estimate of the trend in daily mean temperture due to land use changes is .35 C per century." Kaser, Georg, Douglas R. Hardy, Thomas Molg, Raymond S. Bradley, and Tharsis M. Hyera. "Modern Glacier Retreat on Kilimanjaro as Evidence of Climate Change: Observations and Facts." Kaser, Georg, Douglas R. Hardy, Thomas Molg, Raymond S. Bradley, and Tharsis M. Hyera. "Modern Glacier Retreat on Kilimanjaro as Evidence of Climate Change: Observations and Facts." International Journal of Climatology International Journal of Climatology 24 (2004): 32939. 24 (2004): 32939. Kieffer, H., J. S. Kargel, R. Barry, R. Bindschadler, M. Bishop, D. MacKinnon, A. Ohmura, B. Raup, M. Antoninetti, J. Bamber, M. Braun, I. Brown, D. Cohen, L. Copland, J. DueHagen, R. V. Engeset, B. Fitzharris, K. Fujita, W. Haeberli, J. O. Hagen, D. Hall, M. Hoelzle, M. Johansson, A. Kaab, M. Koenig, V. Konovalov, M. Maisch, F. Paul, F. Rau, N. Reeh, E. Rignot,A. Rivera, M. Ruyter de Wildt, T. Scambos, J. Schaper, G. Scharfen, J. Shroder, O. Solomina, D. Thompson, K. Van der Veen, T. Wohlleben, and N. Young. "New eyes in the sky measure glaciers and ice sheets." Kieffer, H., J. S. Kargel, R. Barry, R. Bindschadler, M. Bishop, D. MacKinnon, A. Ohmura, B. Raup, M. Antoninetti, J. Bamber, M. Braun, I. Brown, D. Cohen, L. Copland, J. DueHagen, R. V. Engeset, B. Fitzharris, K. Fujita, W. Haeberli, J. O. Hagen, D. Hall, M. Hoelzle, M. Johansson, A. Kaab, M. Koenig, V. Konovalov, M. Maisch, F. Paul, F. Rau, N. Reeh, E. Rignot,A. Rivera, M. Ruyter de Wildt, T. Scambos, J. Schaper, G. Scharfen, J. Shroder, O. Solomina, D. Thompson, K. Van der Veen, T. Wohlleben, and N. Young. "New eyes in the sky measure glaciers and ice sheets." EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union 81, no. 265 (2000): 27071. 81, no. 265 (2000): 27071. Kline, Wendy. Building a Better Race: Gender, Sexuality and Eugenics from the Turn of the Century to the Baby Boom. Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press, 2001. Kline, Wendy. Building a Better Race: Gender, Sexuality and Eugenics from the Turn of the Century to the Baby Boom. Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press, 2001. Koshland, Daniel J. "Credibility in Science and the Press." Koshland, Daniel J. "Credibility in Science and the Press." Science Science 254 (1 Nov. 1991): 629. Bad science reporting takes its toll; the former head of the American Association for the Advancement of Science complains about it. 254 (1 Nov. 1991): 629. Bad science reporting takes its toll; the former head of the American Association for the Advancement of Science complains about it.Kraus, Nancy, Trorbjorn Malmfors, and Paul Slovic. "Intuitive Toxicology: Expert and Lay Judgments of Chemical Risks." In Slovic, Slovic, 2000. The extent to which uninformed opinion should be given a place in decision making is highlighted by the question of whether ordinary people have an intuitive sense of what in their environment is harmful-whether they are, in the words of these authors, intuitive toxicologists. As I read the data, they aren't. 2000. The extent to which uninformed opinion should be given a place in decision making is highlighted by the question of whether ordinary people have an intuitive sense of what in their environment is harmful-whether they are, in the words of these authors, intuitive toxicologists. As I read the data, they aren't.Krech, Shepard. The Ecological Indian: Myth and History. The Ecological Indian: Myth and History. New York: Norton, 1999. An anthropologist carefully reviews the data indicating that native Americans were not the exemplary ecologists of yore. Also reviews recent changes in ecological science. New York: Norton, 1999. An anthropologist carefully reviews the data indicating that native Americans were not the exemplary ecologists of yore. Also reviews recent changes in ecological science. Kuhl, Stevan. Kuhl, Stevan. The Nazi Connection: Eugenics, American Racism, and German National Socialism. The Nazi Connection: Eugenics, American Racism, and German National Socialism. New York: Oxford University Press, 1994. New York: Oxford University Press, 1994.Kuran, Timur. Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification. Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1995. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1995.Landsea, C., N. Nicholls, W. Gray, and L. Avila. "Downward Trend in the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes During the Past Five Decades." Geophysical Research Letters Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1996): 52730. 23 (1996): 52730. Landsea, Christopher W., and John A. Knaff. "How Much Skill Was There in Forecasting the Very Strong 199798 El Nino?" Landsea, Christopher W., and John A. Knaff. "How Much Skill Was There in Forecasting the Very Strong 199798 El Nino?" Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81, no. 9 (September 2000): 201719. Authors found the older, simpler models performed best. "The use of more complex, physically realistic dynamical models does not automatically provide more reliable forecasts.... [Our findings] may be surprising given the general perception that seasonal El Nino forecasts from dynamical models have been quite successful and may even be considered a solved problem." They discuss in detail that the models did not, in fact, predict well. Yet "others are using the supposed success in dynamical El Nino forecasting to support other agendas...one could even have less confidence in anthropogenic global studies because of the lack of skill in predicting El Nino.... The bottom line is that the successes in forecasting have been overstated (sometimes drastically) and misapplied in other areas." 81, no. 9 (September 2000): 201719. Authors found the older, simpler models performed best. "The use of more complex, physically realistic dynamical models does not automatically provide more reliable forecasts.... [Our findings] may be surprising given the general perception that seasonal El Nino forecasts from dynamical models have been quite successful and may even be considered a solved problem." They discuss in detail that the models did not, in fact, predict well. Yet "others are using the supposed success in dynamical El Nino forecasting to support other agendas...one could even have less confidence in anthropogenic global studies because of the lack of skill in predicting El Nino.... The bottom line is that the successes in forecasting have been overstated (sometimes drastically) and misapplied in other areas." Lave, Lester B. "Benefit-Cost Analysis: Do the Benefits Exceed the Costs?" In Robert W. Hahn, ed., Lave, Lester B. "Benefit-Cost Analysis: Do the Benefits Exceed the Costs?" In Robert W. Hahn, ed., Risks, Costs, and Lives Saved: Getting Better Results from Regulation. Risks, Costs, and Lives Saved: Getting Better Results from Regulation. New York: Oxford University Press, 1996. A critical review of problems in cost-benefit analysis by an economist who supports the tool but acknowledges that opponents sometimes have a point. New York: Oxford University Press, 1996. A critical review of problems in cost-benefit analysis by an economist who supports the tool but acknowledges that opponents sometimes have a point. Lean, Judith, and David Rind. "Climate Forcing by Changing Solar Radiation." Lean, Judith, and David Rind. "Climate Forcing by Changing Solar Radiation." Journal of Climat Journal of Climate 11 (December 1988): 306994. How much does the sun affect climate? These authors suggest about half the observed surface warming since 1900 and one-third of the warming since 1970 may be attributed to the sun. But there are uncertainties here. "Present inability to adequately specify climate forcing by changing solar radiation has implications for policy making regarding anthropogenic global change, which must be detected against natural climate variability." LeBlanc, Steven A., and Katherine E. Register. LeBlanc, Steven A., and Katherine E. Register. Constant Battles. Constant Battles. New York: St. Martin's Press, 2003. The myth of the noble savage and the Edenic past dies hard. LeBlanc is one of the handful of archaeologists who have given close scrutiny to evidence for past warfare and has worked to revise an academic inclination to see a peaceful past. LeBlanc argues that primitive societies fought constantly and brutally. New York: St. Martin's Press, 2003. The myth of the noble savage and the Edenic past dies hard. LeBlanc is one of the handful of archaeologists who have given close scrutiny to evidence for past warfare and has worked to revise an academic inclination to see a peaceful past. LeBlanc argues that primitive societies fought constantly and brutally. Levack, Brian P. Levack, Brian P. The Witch-Hunt in Early Modern Europe. The Witch-Hunt in Early Modern Europe. Second Edition. London: Longman, 1995. In the sixteenth century, the educated elites of Europe believed that certain human beings had made contracts with the devil. They believed that witches gathered to perform horrific rites, and that they flew across the sky in the night. On the basis of these beliefs, these elites tortured countless people, and killed 50,000 to 60,000 of their countrymen, mostly old women. However, they also killed men and children, and sometimes (because it was thought unseemly to burn a child) they imprisoned the children until he or she was old enough to be executed. Most of the extensive literature on witchcraft (including the present volume) does not in my view fully come to grips with the truth of this period. The fact that so many people were executed for a fantasy-and despite the reservations of prominent skeptics-carries a lesson that we must always bear in mind. The consensus of the intelligentsia is not necessarily correct, no matter how many believe it, or for how many years the belief is held. It may still be wrong. In fact, it may be Second Edition. London: Longman, 1995. In the sixteenth century, the educated elites of Europe believed that certain human beings had made contracts with the devil. They believed that witches gathered to perform horrific rites, and that they flew across the sky in the night. On the basis of these beliefs, these elites tortured countless people, and killed 50,000 to 60,000 of their countrymen, mostly old women. However, they also killed men and children, and sometimes (because it was thought unseemly to burn a child) they imprisoned the children until he or she was old enough to be executed. Most of the extensive literature on witchcraft (including the present volume) does not in my view fully come to grips with the truth of this period. The fact that so many people were executed for a fantasy-and despite the reservations of prominent skeptics-carries a lesson that we must always bear in mind. The consensus of the intelligentsia is not necessarily correct, no matter how many believe it, or for how many years the belief is held. It may still be wrong. In fact, it may be very very wrong. And we must never forget it. Because it will happen again. And indeed it has. wrong. And we must never forget it. Because it will happen again. And indeed it has.Lilla, Mark. The Reckless Mind: Intellectuals in Politics. The Reckless Mind: Intellectuals in Politics. New York: New York Review of Books, 2001. This razor-sharp text focuses on twentieth-century philosophers but serves as a reminder of the intellectual's temptation "to succumb to the allure of an idea, to allow passion to blind us to its tyrannical potential." New York: New York Review of Books, 2001. This razor-sharp text focuses on twentieth-century philosophers but serves as a reminder of the intellectual's temptation "to succumb to the allure of an idea, to allow passion to blind us to its tyrannical potential." Lindzen, Richard S. "Do Deep Ocean Temperature Records Verify Models?" Lindzen, Richard S. "Do Deep Ocean Temperature Records Verify Models?" Geophysical Research Letters Geophysical Research Letters 29, no. 0 (2002): 10.1029/2001GL014360. Changes in ocean temperature cannot be taken as a verification of GCMs, computer climate models. 29, no. 0 (2002): 10.1029/2001GL014360. Changes in ocean temperature cannot be taken as a verification of GCMs, computer climate models.--. "The Press Gets It Wrong: Our Report Doesn't Support the Kyoto Treaty." Wall Street Journal, Wall Street Journal, 11 June 2001. This brief essay by a distinguished MIT professor summarizes one example of the way the media misinterprets scientific reports on climate. In this case, the National Academy of Sciences report on climate change, widely claimed to say what it did not. Lindzen was one of eleven authors of the report. http://opinionjournal. com/editorial/feature.html?id=95000606 11 June 2001. This brief essay by a distinguished MIT professor summarizes one example of the way the media misinterprets scientific reports on climate. In this case, the National Academy of Sciences report on climate change, widely claimed to say what it did not. Lindzen was one of eleven authors of the report. http://opinionjournal. com/editorial/feature.html?id=95000606 Lindzen, R. S., and K. Emanuel. "The Greenhouse Effect." In Lindzen, R. S., and K. Emanuel. "The Greenhouse Effect." In Encyclopedia of Global Change, Environmental Change and Human Society. Volume 1. Encyclopedia of Global Change, Environmental Change and Human Society. Volume 1. Andrew S. Goudie, ed., New York: Oxford University Press, 2002, pp. 56266. What exactly is the greenhouse effect everybody talks about but nobody ever explains in any detail? A brief, clear summary. Andrew S. Goudie, ed., New York: Oxford University Press, 2002, pp. 56266. What exactly is the greenhouse effect everybody talks about but nobody ever explains in any detail? A brief, clear summary. Liu, J., J. A. Curry, and D. G. Martinson. "Interpretation of Recent Antarctic Sea Ice Variability." Liu, J., J. A. Curry, and D. G. Martinson. "Interpretation of Recent Antarctic Sea Ice Variability." Geophysical Research Letters Geophysical Research Letters 31 (2004): 10.1029/2003 GL018732. 31 (2004): 10.1029/2003 GL018732. Lomborg, Bjorn. Lomborg, Bjorn. The Skeptical Environmentalist. The Skeptical Environmentalist. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2002. By now, many people know the story behind this text: The author, a Danish statistician and Greenpeace activist, set out to disprove the views of the late Julian Simon, an economist who claimed that dire environmental fears were wrong and that the world was actually improving. To Lomborg's surprise, he found that Simon was mostly right. Lomborg's text is crisp, calm, clean, devastating to established dogma. Since publication, the author has been subjected to relentless ad hominem attacks, which can only mean his conclusions are unobjectionable in any serious scientific way. Throughout the long controversy, Lomborg has behaved in exemplary fashion. Sadly, his critics have not. Special mention must go to the Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2002. By now, many people know the story behind this text: The author, a Danish statistician and Greenpeace activist, set out to disprove the views of the late Julian Simon, an economist who claimed that dire environmental fears were wrong and that the world was actually improving. To Lomborg's surprise, he found that Simon was mostly right. Lomborg's text is crisp, calm, clean, devastating to established dogma. Since publication, the author has been subjected to relentless ad hominem attacks, which can only mean his conclusions are unobjectionable in any serious scientific way. Throughout the long controversy, Lomborg has behaved in exemplary fashion. Sadly, his critics have not. Special mention must go to the Scientific American, Scientific American, which was particularly reprehensible. All in all, the treatment accorded Lomborg can be viewed as a confirmation of the postmodern critique of science as just another power struggle. A sad episode for science. which was particularly reprehensible. All in all, the treatment accorded Lomborg can be viewed as a confirmation of the postmodern critique of science as just another power struggle. A sad episode for science.Lovins, Amory B. Soft Energy Paths: Toward a Durable Peace. Soft Energy Paths: Toward a Durable Peace. New York: Harper and Row, 1977. Perhaps the most important advocate for alternative energy wrote this anti-nuclear energy text in the 1970s for Friends of the Earth, elaborating on an influential essay he wrote for New York: Harper and Row, 1977. Perhaps the most important advocate for alternative energy wrote this anti-nuclear energy text in the 1970s for Friends of the Earth, elaborating on an influential essay he wrote for Foreign Affairs Foreign Affairs the year before. The resulting text can be seen as a major link in the chain of events and thinking that set the US on a different energy path from the nations of Europe. Lovins is trained as a physicist and is a MacArthur Fellow. the year before. The resulting text can be seen as a major link in the chain of events and thinking that set the US on a different energy path from the nations of Europe. Lovins is trained as a physicist and is a MacArthur Fellow. McKendry, Ian G. "Applied Climatology." McKendry, Ian G. "Applied Climatology." Progress in Physical Geography Progress in Physical Geography 27, no. 4 (2003): 597606. "Recent studies suggest that attempts to remove the 'urban bias' from long-term climate records (and hence identify the magnitude of the enhanced greenhouse effect) may be overly simplistic. This will likely continue to be a contentious issue...." 27, no. 4 (2003): 597606. "Recent studies suggest that attempts to remove the 'urban bias' from long-term climate records (and hence identify the magnitude of the enhanced greenhouse effect) may be overly simplistic. This will likely continue to be a contentious issue...." Manes, Christopher. Manes, Christopher. Green Rage: Radical Environmentalism and the Unmaking of Civilization. Green Rage: Radical Environmentalism and the Unmaking of Civilization. Boston: Little Brown, 1990. Not to be missed. Boston: Little Brown, 1990. Not to be missed. Man's Impact on the Global Environment, Man's Impact on the Global Environment, Assessments and Recommendations for Action, Report of the Study of Critical Environmental Problems (SCEP). Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1970. The text predicts carbon dioxide levels of 370 ppm in the year 2000 and a surface-temperature increase of .5 C as a result. The actual figures were 360 ppm and .3 Cfar more accurate than predictions made fifteen years later, using lots more computer power. Assessments and Recommendations for Action, Report of the Study of Critical Environmental Problems (SCEP). Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1970. The text predicts carbon dioxide levels of 370 ppm in the year 2000 and a surface-temperature increase of .5 C as a result. The actual figures were 360 ppm and .3 Cfar more accurate than predictions made fifteen years later, using lots more computer power. Marlar, Richard A., et al. "Biochemical evidence of cannibalism at a prehistoric Puebloan site in southwestern Colorado. Marlar, Richard A., et al. "Biochemical evidence of cannibalism at a prehistoric Puebloan site in southwestern Colorado. Nature Nature 407, 74078, 7 Sept. 2000. 407, 74078, 7 Sept. 2000.Martin, Paul S. "Prehistoric Overkill: The Global Model." In Quaternary Extinctions: A Prehistoric Revolution. Quaternary Extinctions: A Prehistoric Revolution. Paul S. Martin and Richard G. Klein, eds. Tucson, Ariz.: University of Arizona Press, 1984, 354403. Paul S. Martin and Richard G. Klein, eds. Tucson, Ariz.: University of Arizona Press, 1984, 354403.Mason, Betsy. "African Ice Under Wraps." Nature online publication, Nature online publication, 24 November 2003. 24 November 2003. Matthews, Robert A. J. "Facts versus factions: The use and abuse of subjectivity in scientific research." In Morris, Matthews, Robert A. J. "Facts versus factions: The use and abuse of subjectivity in scientific research." In Morris, Rethinking Risk, Rethinking Risk, pp. 24782. A physicist argues "the failure of the scientific community to take decisive action over the flaws in standard statistical methods, and the resulting waste of resources spent on futile attempts to replicate claims based on them, constitute a major scientific scandal." The book also contains an impressive list of major scientific developments held back by the subjective prejudice of scientists. So much for the reliability of the "consensus" of scientists. pp. 24782. A physicist argues "the failure of the scientific community to take decisive action over the flaws in standard statistical methods, and the resulting waste of resources spent on futile attempts to replicate claims based on them, constitute a major scientific scandal." The book also contains an impressive list of major scientific developments held back by the subjective prejudice of scientists. So much for the reliability of the "consensus" of scientists. Meadows, Donella H., Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III. Meadows, Donella H., Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III. The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York: New American Library, 1972. It is a shame this book is out of print, because it was hugely influential in its day, and it set the tone ("the predicament of mankind") for much that followed. To read it now is to be astonished at how primitive were the techniques for assessing the state of the world, and how incautious the predictions of future trends. Many of the graphs have no axes, and are therefore just pictures of technical-looking curves. In retrospect, the text is notable not so much for its errors of prediction as for its consistent tone of urgent overstatement bordering on hysteria. The conclusion: "Concerted international measures and joint long-term planning will be necessary on a scale and scope without precedent. Such an effort calls for joint endeavor by all peoples, whatever their culture, economic system, or level of development.... This supreme effort is...founded on a basic change of values and goals at individual, national and world levels." And so forth. New York: New American Library, 1972. It is a shame this book is out of print, because it was hugely influential in its day, and it set the tone ("the predicament of mankind") for much that followed. To read it now is to be astonished at how primitive were the techniques for assessing the state of the world, and how incautious the predictions of future trends. Many of the graphs have no axes, and are therefore just pictures of technical-looking curves. In retrospect, the text is notable not so much for its errors of prediction as for its consistent tone of urgent overstatement bordering on hysteria. The conclusion: "Concerted international measures and joint long-term planning will be necessary on a scale and scope without precedent. Such an effort calls for joint endeavor by all peoples, whatever their culture, economic system, or level of development.... This supreme effort is...founded on a basic change of values and goals at individual, national and world levels." And so forth. Medvedev, Zhores A. Medvedev, Zhores A. The Rise and Fall of T. D. Lysenko. The Rise and Fall of T. D. Lysenko. New York: Columbia University Press, 1969. Extremely difficult to read. New York: Columbia University Press, 1969. Extremely difficult to read. Michaels, Patrick J., and Robert C. Balling, Jr. Michaels, Patrick J., and Robert C. Balling, Jr. The Satanic Gases: Clearing the Air about Global Warming. The Satanic Gases: Clearing the Air about Global Warming. Washington, DC: Cato, 2000. These skeptical authors have a sense of humor and a clear style. Use of graphs is unusually good. The Cato Institute is a profree market organization with libertarian overtones. Washington, DC: Cato, 2000. These skeptical authors have a sense of humor and a clear style. Use of graphs is unusually good. The Cato Institute is a profree market organization with libertarian overtones. Morris, Julian, ed. Morris, Julian, ed. Rethinking Risk and the Precautionary Principle. Rethinking Risk and the Precautionary Principle. Oxford, UK: Butterworth/Heinemann, 2000. A broad-ranging critique that discusses, for example, how precautionary thinking has harmed children's development. Nye, David E. Oxford, UK: Butterworth/Heinemann, 2000. A broad-ranging critique that discusses, for example, how precautionary thinking has harmed children's development. Nye, David E. Consuming Power, Consuming Power, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1998. America consumes more power per capita than any other country, and Nye is the most knowledgeable scholar about the history of American technology. He draws markedly different conclusions from those less informed. This text is scathing about determinist views of technology. It has clear implications for the validity of IPCC "scenarios." Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1998. America consumes more power per capita than any other country, and Nye is the most knowledgeable scholar about the history of American technology. He draws markedly different conclusions from those less informed. This text is scathing about determinist views of technology. It has clear implications for the validity of IPCC "scenarios." Oleary, Rosemary, Robert F. Durant, Daniel J. Fiorino, and Paul S. Weiland. Oleary, Rosemary, Robert F. Durant, Daniel J. Fiorino, and Paul S. Weiland. Managing for the Environment: Understanding the Legal, Organizational, and Policy Challenges. Managing for the Environment: Understanding the Legal, Organizational, and Policy Challenges. New York: Wiley and Sons, 1999. A much-needed compendium that sometimes covers too much in too little detail. New York: Wiley and Sons, 1999. A much-needed compendium that sometimes covers too much in too little detail.Ordover, Nancy. American Eugenics: Race, Queer Anatomy, and the Science of Nationalism. American Eugenics: Race, Queer Anatomy, and the Science of Nationalism. Minneapolis, Minn.: University of Minnesota Press, 2003. Fascinating in content, confusing in structure, difficult to read, but uncompromising. The author insists on the culpability of both the left and right in the eugenics movement, both in the past and in the present day. Minneapolis, Minn.: University of Minnesota Press, 2003. Fascinating in content, confusing in structure, difficult to read, but uncompromising. The author insists on the culpability of both the left and right in the eugenics movement, both in the past and in the present day. Pagels, Heinz R. Pagels, Heinz R. The Dreams of Reason: Computers and the Rise of the Sciences of Complexity. The Dreams of Reason: Computers and the Rise of the Sciences of Complexity. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1988. The study of complexity represents a true revolution in science, albeit a rather old revolution. This delightful book is sixteen years old, written when the revolution was exciting and new. One would think sixteen years would be enough time for the understanding of complexity and nonlinear dynamics to revise the thinking of environmental activists. But evidently not. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1988. The study of complexity represents a true revolution in science, albeit a rather old revolution. This delightful book is sixteen years old, written when the revolution was exciting and new. One would think sixteen years would be enough time for the understanding of complexity and nonlinear dynamics to revise the thinking of environmental activists. But evidently not. Park, Robert. Park, Robert. Voodoo Science: The Road from Foolishness to Fraud. Voodoo Science: The Road from Foolishness to Fraud. New York: Oxford University Press, 2000. The author is a professor of physics and a director of the American Physical Society. His book is especially good on the "Currents of Death" EMF/powerline/cancer controversy, in which he was involved (as a skeptic). New York: Oxford University Press, 2000. The author is a professor of physics and a director of the American Physical Society. His book is especially good on the "Currents of Death" EMF/powerline/cancer controversy, in which he was involved (as a skeptic). Parkinson, C. L. "Trends in the Length of the Southern Ocean S ea-Ice Season, 197999." Parkinson, C. L. "Trends in the Length of the Southern Ocean S ea-Ice Season, 197999." Annals of Glaciology Annals of Glaciology 34 (2002): 43540. 34 (2002): 43540. Parsons, Michael L. Parsons, Michael L. Global Warming: The Truth Behind the Myth, Global Warming: The Truth Behind the Myth, New York: Plenum, 1995. A skeptical review of data by a professor of health sciences (and therefore not a climate scientist). Outsider's analysis of data. New York: Plenum, 1995. A skeptical review of data by a professor of health sciences (and therefore not a climate scientist). Outsider's analysis of data. Pearce, Fred, "Africans go back to the land as plants reclaim the desert." Pearce, Fred, "Africans go back to the land as plants reclaim the desert." New Scientist New Scientist 175 (21 September 2002): 45. 175 (21 September 2002): 45. Penn and Teller. Penn and Teller. Bullshit! Bullshit! Showtime series. Brisk, amusing attacks on conventional wisdom and sacred cows. The episode in which a young woman signs up environmentalists to ban "dihydrogen monoxide" (better known as water) is especially funny. "Dihydrogen monoxide," she explains, "is found in lakes and rivers, it remains on fruits and vegetables after they're washed, it makes you sweat..." And the people sign up. Another episode on recycling is the clearest brief explanation of what is right and wrong about this practice. Showtime series. Brisk, amusing attacks on conventional wisdom and sacred cows. The episode in which a young woman signs up environmentalists to ban "dihydrogen monoxide" (better known as water) is especially funny. "Dihydrogen monoxide," she explains, "is found in lakes and rivers, it remains on fruits and vegetables after they're washed, it makes you sweat..." And the people sign up. Another episode on recycling is the clearest brief explanation of what is right and wrong about this practice. Pepper, David. Pepper, David. Modern Environmentalism: An Introduction. Modern Environmentalism: An Introduction. London: Routledge, 1996. A detailed account of the multiple strands of environmental philosophy by a sympathetic observer. Along with the quite different work of Douglas and Wildavsky, this book considers why mutually incompatible views of nature are held by different groups, and why compromise among them is so unlikely. It also makes clear the extent to which environmental views encompass beliefs about how human society should be structured. The author is a professor of geography and writes well. London: Routledge, 1996. A detailed account of the multiple strands of environmental philosophy by a sympathetic observer. Along with the quite different work of Douglas and Wildavsky, this book considers why mutually incompatible views of nature are held by different groups, and why compromise among them is so unlikely. It also makes clear the extent to which environmental views encompass beliefs about how human society should be structured. The author is a professor of geography and writes well. Petit, J. R., J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, N. I. Barkov, J.-M. Barnola, I. Basile, M. Bender, J. Chappellaz, M. Davis, G. Delaygue, M. Delmotte, V. M. Kotlyakov, M. Legrand, V. Y. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, L. Pepin, C. Ritz, E. Saltzman, and M. Stievenard. "1999. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica." Petit, J. R., J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, N. I. Barkov, J.-M. Barnola, I. Basile, M. Bender, J. Chappellaz, M. Davis, G. Delaygue, M. Delmotte, V. M. Kotlyakov, M. Legrand, V. Y. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, L. Pepin, C. Ritz, E. Saltzman, and M. Stievenard. "1999. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica." Nature Nature 399: 42936. 399: 42936.Pielou, E. C. After the Ice Age: The Return of Life to Glaciated North America. After the Ice Age: The Return of Life to Glaciated North America. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991. A wonderful book, a model of its kind. Explains how life returned as the glaciers receded twenty thousand years ago, and how scientists analyze the data to arrive at their conclusions. Along the way, an excellent reminder of how dramatically our planet has changed in the geologically recent past. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991. A wonderful book, a model of its kind. Explains how life returned as the glaciers receded twenty thousand years ago, and how scientists analyze the data to arrive at their conclusions. Along the way, an excellent reminder of how dramatically our planet has changed in the geologically recent past.Ponte, Lowell. The Cooling. The Cooling. Englewood, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1972. The most highly praised of the books from the 1970s that warned of an impending ice age. (The cover asks: "Has the next ice age already begun? Can we survive it?") Contains a chapter on how we might modify the global climate to prevent excessive cooling. A typical quote: "We simply cannot afford to gamble against this possibility by ignoring it. We cannot risk inaction. Those scientists who say we are entering a period of climatic instability [i.e., unpredictability] are acting irresponsibly. The indications that our climate can soon change for the worse are too strong to be reasonably ignored" (p. 237). Englewood, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1972. The most highly praised of the books from the 1970s that warned of an impending ice age. (The cover asks: "Has the next ice age already begun? Can we survive it?") Contains a chapter on how we might modify the global climate to prevent excessive cooling. A typical quote: "We simply cannot afford to gamble against this possibility by ignoring it. We cannot risk inaction. Those scientists who say we are entering a period of climatic instability [i.e., unpredictability] are acting irresponsibly. The indications that our climate can soon change for the worse are too strong to be reasonably ignored" (p. 237). Pritchard, James A. Pritchard, James A. Preserving Yellowstone's Natural Conditions: Science and the Perception of Nature. Preserving Yellowstone's Natural Conditions: Science and the Perception of Nature. Lincoln, Neb.: University of Nebraska Press, 1999. Balance of evidence that elk have changed habitat. Also the nonequilibrium paradigm. Lincoln, Neb.: University of Nebraska Press, 1999. Balance of evidence that elk have changed habitat. Also the nonequilibrium paradigm.Pronin, Emily, Carolyn Puccio, and Lee Rosh. "Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives." In Gilovitch, et al., pp. 63665. A cool assessment of human disagreement. Rasool, S. I., and S. H. Schneider. "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate." Rasool, S. I., and S. H. Schneider. "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate." Science ( Science (11 July 1971): 13841. An example of the research in the 1970s that suggested that human influence on climate was leading to cooling, not warming. The authors state that increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will not raise temperature as much as increasing aerosols will reduce it. "An increase by only a factor of 4 in global aerosol background concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5 K...believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age." Raub, W. D., A. Post, C. S. Brown, and M. F. Meier. "Perennial ice masses of the Sierra Nevada, California." Raub, W. D., A. Post, C. S. Brown, and M. F. Meier. "Perennial ice masses of the Sierra Nevada, California." Proceedings of the International Assoc. of Hydrological Science, Proceedings of the International Assoc. of Hydrological Science, no. 126 (1980): 3334. Cited in Guyton, 1998. no. 126 (1980): 3334. Cited in Guyton, 1998. Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Federal Judicial Center. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1994. After years of abuse, the Federal Courts in the US established detailed guidelines for the admissibility of various kinds of scientific testimony and scientific evidence. This volume runs 634 pages. Federal Judicial Center. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1994. After years of abuse, the Federal Courts in the US established detailed guidelines for the admissibility of various kinds of scientific testimony and scientific evidence. This volume runs 634 pages. Reiter, Paul, Christopher J. Tomas, Peter M. Atkinson, Simon I. Hay, Sarah E. Randolph, David J. Rogers, G. Dennis Shanks, Robert W. Snow, and Andrew Spielman. "Global Warming and Malaria: A Call for Accuracy." Reiter, Paul, Christopher J. Tomas, Peter M. Atkinson, Simon I. Hay, Sarah E. Randolph, David J. Rogers, G. Dennis Shanks, Robert W. Snow, and Andrew Spielman. "Global Warming and Malaria: A Call for Accuracy." Lancet Lancet 4, no. 1 (June 2004). 4, no. 1 (June 2004). Rice, Glen E., and Steven A. LeBlanc, eds. Rice, Glen E., and Steven A. LeBlanc, eds. Deadly Landscape. Deadly Landscape. Salt Lake City, Utah: University of Utah Press, 2001. More evidence for a strife-filled human past. Salt Lake City, Utah: University of Utah Press, 2001. More evidence for a strife-filled human past. Roberts, Leslie R. "Counting on Roberts, Leslie R. "Counting on Science Science at EPA." Science 249 (10 August 1990): 61618. An important brief report on how the EPA ranks risks. Essentially it does what the public wants, not what the EPA experts advise. This is sometimes but not always a bad thing. at EPA." Science 249 (10 August 1990): 61618. An important brief report on how the EPA ranks risks. Essentially it does what the public wants, not what the EPA experts advise. This is sometimes but not always a bad thing. Roszak, Theodore. Roszak, Theodore. The Voice of the Earth. The Voice of the Earth. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1992. Roszak is often at the leading edge of emerging social movements, and here he gives an early insight into a blend of ecology and psychology that has since become widespread, even though it is essentially pure feeling without objective foundation. Nevertheless, ecopsychology has become a guiding light in the minds of many people, particularly those without scientific training. My own view is that the movement projects the dissatisfactions of contemporary society onto a natural world that is so seldom experienced that it serves as a perfect projection screen. One must also recall the blunt view of Richard Feynman: "We have learned from much experience that all philosophical intuitions about what nature is going to do fail." New York: Simon and Schuster, 1992. Roszak is often at the leading edge of emerging social movements, and here he gives an early insight into a blend of ecology and psychology that has since become widespread, even though it is essentially pure feeling without objective foundation. Nevertheless, ecopsychology has become a guiding light in the minds of many people, particularly those without scientific training. My own view is that the movement projects the dissatisfactions of contemporary society onto a natural world that is so seldom experienced that it serves as a perfect projection screen. One must also recall the blunt view of Richard Feynman: "We have learned from much experience that all philosophical intuitions about what nature is going to do fail." Russell, Jeffrey B. Russell, Jeffrey B. A History of Witchcraft, Sorcerers, Heretics and Pagans. A History of Witchcraft, Sorcerers, Heretics and Pagans. London: Thames and Hudson Ltd., 1980. Lest we forget. London: Thames and Hudson Ltd., 1980. Lest we forget. Salzman, Jason. Salzman, Jason. Making the News: A Guide for Activists and Non-Profits. Making the News: A Guide for Activists and Non-Profits. Boulder, Col.: Westview Press, 2003. Boulder, Col.: Westview Press, 2003. Santer, B. D., K. E. Taylor, T. M. L. Wigley, T. C. Johns, P. D. Jones, D. J. Karoly, J. F. B. Mitchell, A. H. Oort, J. E. Penner, V. Ramaswamy, M. D. Schwarzkopf, R. J. Stouffer, and S. Tett. "A Search for Human Influences on the Thermal Structure of the Atmosphere." Santer, B. D., K. E. Taylor, T. M. L. Wigley, T. C. Johns, P. D. Jones, D. J. Karoly, J. F. B. Mitchell, A. H. Oort, J. E. Penner, V. Ramaswamy, M. D. Schwarzkopf, R. J. Stouffer, and S. Tett. "A Search for Human Influences on the Thermal Structure of the Atmosphere." Nature Nature 382 (4 July 1996): 3946. "It is likely that [temperature change in the free atmosphere] is partially due to human activities, though many uncertainties remain, particularly relating to estimates of natural variability." One year after the 1995 IPCC statement that a human effect on climate had been discerned, this article by several IPCC scientists shows considerably more caution about such a claim. 382 (4 July 1996): 3946. "It is likely that [temperature change in the free atmosphere] is partially due to human activities, though many uncertainties remain, particularly relating to estimates of natural variability." One year after the 1995 IPCC statement that a human effect on climate had been discerned, this article by several IPCC scientists shows considerably more caution about such a claim. Schullery, Paul. Schullery, Paul. Searching for Yellowstone: Ecology and Wonder in the Last Wilderness. Searching for Yellowstone: Ecology and Wonder in the Last Wilderness. New York: Houghton Mifflin, 1997. The author was for many years an employee of the Forest Service and takes a more benign approach to events at Yellowstone than others do. New York: Houghton Mifflin, 1997. The author was for many years an employee of the Forest Service and takes a more benign approach to events at Yellowstone than others do. Scott, James C. Scott, James C. Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed. Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1998. An extraordinary and original book that reminds us how seldom academic thought is genuinely fresh. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1998. An extraordinary and original book that reminds us how seldom academic thought is genuinely fresh. Shrader-Frechette, K. S. Shrader-Frechette, K. S. Risk and Rationality: Philosophical Foundations for Populist Reforms. Risk and Rationality: Philosophical Foundations for Populist Reforms. Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press, 1991. Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press, 1991. Singer, S. Fred. Singer, S. Fred. Hot Talk, Cold Science: Global Warming's Unfinished Debate. Hot Talk, Cold Science: Global Warming's Unfinished Debate. Oakland, Calif.: Independent Institute, 1998. Singer is among the most visible of global warming skeptics. A retired professor of environmental science who has held a number of government posts, including Director of Weather Satellite Service and Director for the Center for Atmospheric and Space Sciences, he is a far more qualified advocate for his views than his critics admit. They usually attempt to portray him as a sort of eccentric nutcase. This book is only seventy-two pages long, and the reader may judge for himself. Oakland, Calif.: Independent Institute, 1998. Singer is among the most visible of global warming skeptics. A retired professor of environmental science who has held a number of government posts, including Director of Weather Satellite Service and Director for the Center for Atmospheric and Space Sciences, he is a far more qualified advocate for his views than his critics admit. They usually attempt to portray him as a sort of eccentric nutcase. This book is only seventy-two pages long, and the reader may judge for himself.Slovic, Paul, ed. The Perception of Risk. The Perception of Risk. London: Earthscan, 2000. Slovic has been influential in emphasizing that the concept of "risk" entails not only expert opinion but also the feelings and fears of the population at large. In a democracy, such popular opinions must be addressed in policy making. I take a tougher stance. I believe ignorance is best addressed by education, not by unneeded or wasteful regulation. Unfortunately, the evidence is that we spend far too much soothing false or minor fears. London: Earthscan, 2000. Slovic has been influential in emphasizing that the concept of "risk" entails not only expert opinion but also the feelings and fears of the population at large. In a democracy, such popular opinions must be addressed in policy making. I take a tougher stance. I believe ignorance is best addressed by education, not by unneeded or wasteful regulation. Unfortunately, the evidence is that we spend far too much soothing false or minor fears. Stott, Philip, and Sian Sullivan, eds. Stott, Philip, and Sian Sullivan, eds. Political Ecology: Science, Myth and Power. Political Ecology: Science, Myth and Power. London: Arnold, 2000. Focused on Africa. Stott is now retired, witty, and runs an amusing skeptical blog. London: Arnold, 2000. Focused on Africa. Stott is now retired, witty, and runs an amusing skeptical blog. Streutker, D. R. "Satellite-measured growth of the urban heat island of Houston, Texas." Streutker, D. R. "Satellite-measured growth of the urban heat island of Houston, Texas." Remote Sensing of Environment Remote Sensing of Environment 85 (2003): 28289. "Between 1987 and 1999, the mean nighttime surface temperature heat island of Houston increased 0.82 0.10 C." 85 (2003): 28289. "Between 1987 and 1999, the mean nighttime surface temperature heat island of Houston increased 0.82 0.10 C." Sunstein, Cass R. Sunstein, Cass R. Risk and Reason: Safety, Law, and the Environment. Risk and Reason: Safety, Law, and the Environment. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002. A law professor examines major environmental issues from the standpoint of cost-benefit analysis and concludes that new mechanisms for assessing regulations are needed if we are to break free of the current pattern of "hysteria and neglect"in which we aggressively regulate minor risks while ignoring more significant ones. The detailed chapter on arsenic levels is particularly revealing for anyone wishing to understand the difficulties that rational regulation faces in a highly politicized world. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002. A law professor examines major environmental issues from the standpoint of cost-benefit analysis and concludes that new mechanisms for assessing regulations are needed if we are to break free of the current pattern of "hysteria and neglect"in which we aggressively regulate minor risks while ignoring more significant ones. The detailed chapter on arsenic levels is particularly revealing for anyone wishing to understand the difficulties that rational regulation faces in a highly politicized world. Sutherland, S. K., and W. R. Lane. "Toxins and mode of envenomation of the common ringed or blue-banded octopus." Sutherland, S. K., and W. R. Lane. "Toxins and mode of envenomation of the common ringed or blue-banded octopus." Medical Journal Australia Medical Journal Australia 1 (1969): 89398. 1 (1969): 89398. Tengs, Tammo O., Miriam E. Adams, Joseph S. Plitskin, Dana Gelb Safran, Joanna E. Siegel, Milton C. Weinstein, and John D. Graham. "Five hundred life-saving interventions and their cost effectiveness." Tengs, Tammo O., Miriam E. Adams, Joseph S. Plitskin, Dana Gelb Safran, Joanna E. Siegel, Milton C. Weinstein, and John D. Graham. "Five hundred life-saving interventions and their cost effectiveness." Risk Analysis Risk Analysis 15, no. 3(1995): 36990. The Harvard School of Public Health is dismissed in some quarters as a right-wing institution. But this influential and disturbing study by the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis of the costs of regulation has not been disputed. It implies that a great deal of regulatory effort is wasted, and wasteful. 15, no. 3(1995): 36990. The Harvard School of Public Health is dismissed in some quarters as a right-wing institution. But this influential and disturbing study by the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis of the costs of regulation has not been disputed. It implies that a great deal of regulatory effort is wasted, and wasteful. Thomas, Keith. Thomas, Keith. Man and the Natural World: Changing Attitudes in England 1500 Man and the Natural World: Changing Attitudes in England 1500 1800. New York: Oxford University Press, 1983. Are environmental attitudes a matter of fashion? Thomas's delightful book charts changing perceptions of nature from a locus of danger, to a subject of worshipful appreciation, and finally to the beloved wilderness of elite aesthetes. Thompson, D. W. J., and S. Solomon. "Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change." Thompson, D. W. J., and S. Solomon. "Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change." Science Science 296 (2002): 89599. 296 (2002): 89599.Tommasi, Mariano, and Kathryn Lerulli, eds. The New Economics of Human Behavior. The New Economics of Human Behavior. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1995. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1995.US Congress. Final Report of the Advisory Committee on Weather Control. Final Report of the Advisory Committee on Weather Control. United States Congress. Hawaii: University Press of the Pacific, 2003. United States Congress. Hawaii: University Press of the Pacific, 2003. Victor, David G. "Climate of Doubt: The imminent collapse of the Kyoto Protocol on global warming may be a blessing in disguise. The treaty's architecture is fatally flawed." Victor, David G. "Climate of Doubt: The imminent collapse of the Kyoto Protocol on global warming may be a blessing in disguise. The treaty's architecture is fatally flawed." The Sciences The Sciences (Spring 2001): 1823. Victor is a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and an advocate of carbon emission controls who argues that "prudence demands action to check the rise in greenhouse gases, but the Kyoto Protocol is a road to nowhere." (Spring 2001): 1823. Victor is a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and an advocate of carbon emission controls who argues that "prudence demands action to check the rise in greenhouse gases, but the Kyoto Protocol is a road to nowhere." Viscusi, Kip. Viscusi, Kip. Fatal Tradeoffs: Public and Private Responsibilities for Risk. Fatal Tradeoffs: Public and Private Responsibilities for Risk. New York: Oxford University Press, 1992. Start at section III. New York: Oxford University Press, 1992. Start at section III. ---. ---. Rational Risk Policy. Rational Risk Policy. Oxford: Clarendon, 1998. The author is a professor of law and economics at Harvard. Oxford: Clarendon, 1998. The author is a professor of law and economics at Harvard. Vyas, N. K., M. K. Dash, S. M. Bhandari, N. Khare, A. Mitra, and P. C. Pandey. "On the Secular Trends in Sea Ice Extent over the Antarctic Region Based on OCEANSAT-1 MSMR Observations." Vyas, N. K., M. K. Dash, S. M. Bhandari, N. Khare, A. Mitra, and P. C. Pandey. "On the Secular Trends in Sea Ice Extent over the Antarctic Region Based on OCEANSAT-1 MSMR Observations." International Journal of Remote Sensing International Journal of Remote Sensing 24 (2003): 227787. 24 (2003): 227787. Wallack, Lawrence, Katie Woodruff, Lori Dorfman, and Iris Diaz. Wallack, Lawrence, Katie Woodruff, Lori Dorfman, and Iris Diaz. News for a Change: An Advocate's Guide to Working with the Media. News for a Change: An Advocate's Guide to Working with the Media. London: Sage Publications, 1999. London: Sage Publications, 1999. Weart, Spencer R. Weart, Spencer R. The Discovery of Global Warming. The Discovery of Global Warming. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2003. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2003. West, Darrell M. West, Darrell M. The Rise and Fall of the Media Establishment. The Rise and Fall of the Media Establishment. New York: Bedford/St. Martin's Press, 2001. New York: Bedford/St. Martin's Press, 2001. White, Geoffrey M. White, Geoffrey M. Identity Through History: Living Stories in a Solomon Islands Society. Identity Through History: Living Stories in a Solomon Islands Society. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1991. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1991. Wigley, Tom. "Global Warming Protocol: CO Wigley, Tom. "Global Warming Protocol: CO2, CH4 and climate implications." and climate implications." Geophysical Research Letters Geophysical Research Letters 25, no. 13 (1 July 1998): 228588. 25, no. 13 (1 July 1998): 228588.Wildavsky, Aaron. But Is It True? A Citizen's Guide to Environmental Health and Safety Issues. But Is It True? A Citizen's Guide to Environmental Health and Safety Issues. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1995. A professor of political science and public policy at Berkeley turned his students loose to research both the history and the scientific status of major environmental issues: DDT, Alar, Love Canal, asbestos, the ozone hole, global warming, acid rain. The book is an excellent resource for a more complete discussion of these issues than is usually provided. For example, the author devotes twenty-five pages to the history of the DDT ban, twenty pages to Alar, and so on. Wildavsky concludes that nearly all environmental claims have been either untrue or wildly overstated. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1995. A professor of political science and public policy at Berkeley turned his students loose to research both the history and the scientific status of major environmental issues: DDT, Alar, Love Canal, asbestos, the ozone hole, global warming, acid rain. The book is an excellent resource for a more complete discussion of these issues than is usually provided. For example, the author devotes twenty-five pages to the history of the DDT ban, twenty pages to Alar, and so on. Wildavsky concludes that nearly all environmental claims have been either untrue or wildly overstated.---. Searching for Safety. Searching for Safety. New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction, 1988. If we want a safe society and a safe life, how should we go about getting it? A good-humored exploration of strategies for safety in industrial society. Drawing on data from a wide range of disciplines, Wildavsky argues that resilience is a better strategy than anticipation, and that anticipatory strategies (such as the precautionary principle) favor the social elite over the mass of poorer people. New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction, 1988. If we want a safe society and a safe life, how should we go about getting it? A good-humored exploration of strategies for safety in industrial society. Drawing on data from a wide range of disciplines, Wildavsky argues that resilience is a better strategy than anticipation, and that anticipatory strategies (such as the precautionary principle) favor the social elite over the mass of poorer people. Winsor, P. "Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Remained Constant During the 1990s." Winsor, P. "Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Remained Constant During the 1990s." Geophysical Research Letters Geophysical Research Letters 28, no. 6 (March 2001): 103941. 28, no. 6 (March 2001): 103941.

E-Book Extras Years before starting a novel, Michael Crichton often explores his views on a particular subject by giving speeches before an audience. Writing a speech forces him to sharpen his ideas, and the audience reaction gives him a gauge about whether he has been clear or not in expressing his thoughts.

Starting in 1992, Crichton began to consider issues of media speculation and the environment in a series of speeches that eventually led to the novel State of Fear State of Fear. Three of those speeches are included here.

1. Why Speculate?: A speech to the International Leadership Forum 2. The Greatest Challenge Facing Mankind: Remarks to the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco 3. Aliens Cause Global Warming: The 2003 Michelin Lecture at the California Institute of Technology

E-Book Extra

Why Speculate?

A Speech to the International Leadership Forum

La Jolla, California April 26, 2002 My topic for today is the prevalence of speculation in media. What does it mean? Why has it become so ubiquitous? Should we do something about it? If so, what should we do? And why? Should we care at all? Isn't speculation valuable? Isn't it natural?

I will join this speculative bandwagon and speculate about why there is so much speculation. In keeping with the trend, I will try to express my views without any factual support, simply providing you with a series of bald assertions.

This is not my natural style, and it's going to be a challenge for me, but I will do my best. I have written out my talk which is already a contradiction of principle. To keep within the spirit of our time, it should really be off the top of my head.

Before we begin, I'd like to clarify a definition. By media I mean movies, television, internet, books, newspapers and magazines. That's a broad definition but in keeping with the general trend of speculation, let's not make too many fine distinctions.