"I happen to have Charleston." She thumbed through her graphs.

Charleston, SC 19302000 [image]

Evans said, "So, a bigger city gets warmer. What about New York?" "I have several records from New York, city and state."

New York, NY 19302000 [image]

Syracuse, NY 19302000 [image]

Albany, NY 19302000 [image]

Oswego, NY 19302000 [image]

"As you see," Jennifer said, "New York City is warmer, but many other parts of the state, from Oswego to Albany, have become colder since 1930."

Evans was acutely aware of the cameras on him. He nodded in what he hoped was a judicious, thoughtful manner and said, "And where does this data come from?"

"From the Historical Climatology Network data set," she said. "It's a government dataset, maintained at Oak Ridge National Laboratories."

"Well," Evans said. "It's quite interesting. However, I'd like to see the data from Europe and Asia. This is, after all, a global phenomenon."

"Certainly," Jennifer said. She, too, was playing to the cameras. "But before we do that, I'd like your reaction to the data so far. As you can see, many places in the United States do not seem to have become warmer since 1930."

"I'm sure you cherry-picked your data," Evans said.

"To some degree. As we can be sure the defense will do."

"But the results do not surprise me," Evans said. "Weather varies locally. It always has and always will." A thought occurred to him. "By the way, why are all these graphs since 1930? Temperature records go much further back than that."

"Your point is well taken," Jennifer said, nodding. "It definitely makes a difference how far back you go. For example..."

West Point, NY 19312000 [image]

"Here is West Point, New York, from 1931 to 2000. Trending down. And..."

West Point, NY 19002000 [image]

"Here is West Point from 1900 to 2000. This time the trend is up, not down."

"Ah-ha," Evans said. "So you were were massaging the data. You picked the interval of years that made you look good!" massaging the data. You picked the interval of years that made you look good!"

"Absolutely," Jennifer said, nodding. "But the trick only works because temperatures in many parts of the US were warmer in the 1930s than they are today."

"It's still a trick."

"Yes, it is. The defense will not miss the opportunity to show the jury numerous examples of this trick from environmental fund-raising literature. Selecting specific years that appear to show things are getting worse."

Evans registered her insult to environmental groups. "In that case," he said, "let's not permit any tricks at all. Use the full and complete temperature record. How far back does it go?"

"At West Point, back to 1826."

"Okay. Then suppose you use that?" Evans felt confident proposing this, because it was well known that a worldwide warming trend had begun at about 1850. Every place in the world had gotten warmer since then, and the graph from West Point would reflect that.

Jennifer seemed to know it too, because she suddenly appeared very hesitant, turning away, thumbing through her stack of graphs, frowning as if she couldn't find it.

"You don't have that particular graph, do you?" Evans said.

"No, no. Believe me, I have it. Yes. Here." And then she pulled it out.

West Point, NY 18262000 [image]

Evans took one look and saw that she had sandbagged him.

"As you predicted, this graph is quite telling," she said. "For the last one hundred seventy-four years, there has been no change in the average temperature at West Point. It was 51 degrees Fahrenheit in 1826, and it is 51 degrees in 2000."

"But that's just one record," Evans said, recovering quickly. "One of many. One of hundreds. Thousands."

"You're saying that other records will show other trends?"

"I'm sure they will. Especially using the full full record from 1826." record from 1826."

"And you are correct," she said. "Different records do show different trends."

Evans sat back, satisfied with himself. Hands crossed over his chest.

New York, NY 18222000 [image]

"New York City, a rise of 5 degrees Fahrenheit in a hundred seventy-eight years."

Albany, NY 18202000 [image]

"Albany, a decline of half a degree in a hundred eighty years."

Evans shrugged. "Local variations, as I said before."

"But I wonder," Jennifer said, "how these local variations fit into a theory of global global warming. As I understand it, global warming is caused by an increase in so-called greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, that trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere and prevent it from escaping into space. Is that your understanding?" warming. As I understand it, global warming is caused by an increase in so-called greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, that trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere and prevent it from escaping into space. Is that your understanding?"

"Yes," Evans said, grateful he did not have to summon a definition on his own.

"So, according to the theory," Jennifer said, "the atmosphere itself gets warmer, just as it would inside a greenhouse?"

"Yes."

"And these greenhouse gases affect the entire planet."

"Yes."

"And we know that carbon dioxide-the gas we all worry about-has increased the same amount everywhere in the world..." She pulled out another graph:*

CO2 Levels, 19572002 Levels, 19572002 [image]

"Yes..."

"And its effect is presumably the same everywhere in the world. That's why it's called global global warming." warming."

"Yes..."

"But New York and Albany are only a hundred forty miles apart. You can drive between them in three hours. Their carbon dioxide levels are identical. Yet one got a lot warmer and the other got slightly colder. Is that evidence for global global warming?" warming?"

"Weather is local," Evans said. "Some places are warmer or colder than others. And always will be."

"But we are talking about climate, not weather. Climate is weather over a long time period."

"Yes..."

"So I would agree with you if both locations got warmer, albeit by different amounts. But here, one got warmer and one got colder. And as we saw, West Point-which is midway between them-remained unchanged."

Evans said, "I think the theory of global warming predicts that some places will get colder."

"Really? Why is that?"

"I'm not sure, but I read it somewhere."

"The Earth's entire atmosphere warms, and as a result some places get colder?"

"I believe so."

"As you think about it now, does that claim make sense to you?"

"No," Evans said, "but you know, climate is a complex system."

"Which means what, to you?"

"It means it's, uh, complicated. It doesn't always behave the way you think it will."

"That's certainly true," Jennifer said. "But going back to New York and Albany. The fact that these two locations are so close, yet their temperature records are so different, could lead a jury to wonder whether we're really measuring something other than a global global effect. You would agree that in the last hundred eighty-five years, New York has grown to a city of eight million, whereas Albany has grown much less?" effect. You would agree that in the last hundred eighty-five years, New York has grown to a city of eight million, whereas Albany has grown much less?"

"Yes," Evans said.

"And we know that the urban heat island effect makes cities hotter than the surrounding countryside."

"Yes..."

"And this urban heat effect is a local effect, unrelated to global warming?"

"Yes..."

"So, tell me: how do you know that the dramatic increase in temperature in New York is caused by global warming, and not just from an excess of concrete and skyscrapers?"

"Well." Evans hesitated. "I don't know the answer to that. But I assume it is known."

"Because if cities like New York become larger and hotter than they were before, they will raise the average global temperature, will they not?"

"I assume they will."

"In which case, as cities expand all around the world, we might see an increase in average ground temperature simply because of urbanization. Without any global atmospheric effect at all."

"I am sure the scientists have thought of that already," Evans said. "I'm sure they can answer that."

"Yes, they can. Their answer is that they have subtracted a factor from the raw data to compensate for the urban heat effect."

"Well, there you are."

"Excuse me? Mr. Evans, you're a lawyer. Surely you are aware of the extraordinary efforts that are made in a lawsuit to be certain the evidence is untainted."

"Yes, but-"

"You don't want anybody to be able to change it."

"Yes..."

"But in this case, the evidence is the raw temperature data. And it is tainted by the very scientists who claim global warming is a worldwide crisis."

"Tainted? It's adjusted downward. downward."

"But the question the defense will ask is, have they adjusted downward enough? enough?"

"I don't know," Evans said, "this is getting very specialized and nitpicky."

"Hardly. It's a core issue. Urbanization versus greenhouse gases as the cause of the increased average surface temperature. And the defense will have a good argument on their side," Jennifer said. "As I said before, several recent studies suggest the reduction for urban bias has, in fact, been too small.* At least one study suggests that half of the observed temperature change comes from land use alone. If that's true, then global warming in the past century is less than three tenths of a degree. Not exactly a crisis." At least one study suggests that half of the observed temperature change comes from land use alone. If that's true, then global warming in the past century is less than three tenths of a degree. Not exactly a crisis."

Evans said nothing. He tried to look intelligent for the cameras.

"Of course," Jennifer continued, "that study can be debated, too. But the point remains: as soon as anybody adjusts the data, they open themselves to the claim that their adjustment was incorrect. That's better ground for the defense. And the larger point the defense will make is that we have allowed the data to be adjusted by the very people who have the most to gain from that adjustment."

"You're saying that climate scientists are unethical?"

"I'm saying it is never a good policy for the fox to guard the hen house. Such procedures are never allowed in medicine, for example, where double-blind experimental designs are required."

"So you're saying climate scientists are are unethical." unethical."

"No, I'm saying that there are good reasons why double-blind procedures are instituted. Look: Every scientist has some idea of how his experiment is going to turn out. Otherwise he wouldn't do the experiment in the first place. He has an expectation. But expectation works in mysterious ways-and totally unconsciously. Do you know any of the studies of scientific bias?"

"No." Evans shook his head.

"Okay. Simple example. A group of genetically identical rats are sent to two different labs for testing. One lab is told that the rats were bred for intelligence and will run a maze faster than normal. The other lab is told that the rats are dumb and will run a maze slowly. Results come back-faster in one lab, slower in the other. Yet the rats are genetically identical."

"Okay, so they fudged."