"And this rise has occurred over twenty years?"

"Twenty or thirty, yes."

"And earlier in the twentieth century?"

"Temperatures went up then, too, but not as fast."

"Okay," she said. "Now I am going to show you a graph..." She pulled out a graph* on foam core backing: on foam core backing: Global Temperature 18802003 [image]

"Does this look familiar to you?" she asked.

"I've seen it before," Evans said.

"It's taken from the NASAGoddard data set used by the UN and other organizations. Do you consider the UN a trustworthy source?"

"Yes."

"So we can regard this graph as accurate? Unbiased? No monkey business?"

"Yes."

"Good. Do you know what this graph represents?"

Evans could read that much. He said, "It's the mean global temperature from all the weather stations around the world for the last hundred years or so."

"That's right," she said. "And how do you interpret this graph?"

"Well," he said, "it shows what I was describing." He pointed to the red line. "World temperatures have been rising since about 1890, but they start to go up steeply around 1970, when industrialization is most intense, which is the real proof of global warming."

"Okay," she said. "So the rapid increase in temperature since 1970 was caused by what?"

"Rising carbon dioxide levels from industrialization."

"Good. In other words, as the carbon dioxide goes up, the temperature goes up."

"Yes."

"All right. Now you mentioned the temperature started to rise from 1890, up to about 1940. And we see here that it did. What caused that rise? Carbon dioxide?"

"Um...I'm not sure."

"Because there was much less industrialization back in 1890, and yet look how temperatures go up. Was carbon dioxide rising in 1890?"

"I'm not sure."

"Actually, it was. Here is a graph showing carbon dioxide levels and temperature."

Global Temperature 18802003 [image]

"Okay," Evans said. "Just what you would expect. Carbon dioxide goes up, and makes temperatures go up."

"Good," she said. "Now I want to direct your attention to the period from 1940 to 1970. As you see, during that period the global temperature actually went down. You see that?"

"Yes..."

Global Temperature vs CO2 19401970 [image]

"Let me show you a closeup of that period." She took out another chart.

"This is a thirty-year period. One third of a century during which temperatures declined. Crops were damaged by frost in summer, glaciers in Europe advanced. What caused the decline?"

"I don't know."

"Was carbon dioxide rising during that period?"

"Yes."

"So, if rising carbon dioxide is the cause of rising temperatures, why didn't it cause temperatures to rise from 1940 to 1970?"

"I don't know," Evans said. "There must have been another factor. Or it could be an anomaly. There are anomalies within broad secular trends. Just look at the stock market."

"Does the stock market have anomalies that last thirty years?"

He shrugged. "Or it could have been soot. Or particulate matter in the air. There were a lot of particulates back then, before environmental laws took effect. Or maybe some other factor."

"These graphs show that carbon dioxide rose continuously, but temperature did not. It rose, then fell, then rose again. Even so, I take it you remain convinced that carbon dioxide has caused the most recent temperature rise?"

"Yes. Everybody knows that's the cause."

"Does this graph trouble you at all?"

"No," Evans said. "I admit it raises some questions, but then not everything is known about the climate. So, no. The graph doesn't trouble me."

"Okay, good. I'm glad to hear it. Let's move on. You said this graph was the average of weather stations around the world. How reliable is that weather data, do you think?"

"I have no idea."

"Well, for example, in the late nineteenth century, the data were generated by people going out to a little box and writing down the temperature twice a day. Maybe they forgot for a few days. Maybe somebody in their family was sick. They had to fill it in later."

"That was back then."

"Right. But how accurate do you think weather records are from Poland in the 1930s? Or Russian provinces since 1990?"

"Not very good, I would guess."

"And I would agree. So over the last hundred years, a fair number of reporting stations around the world may not have provided high-quality, reliable data."

"That could be," Evans said.

"Over the years, which country do you imagine has the best-maintained network of weather stations over a large area?"

"The US?"

"Right. I think there is no dispute about that. Here is another graph."

US Temperature 18802000 [image]

"Does this graph look like the first one we saw of world temperatures?"

"Not exactly."

"What is the change in temperature since 1880?"

"Looks like, uh, a third of a degree."

A third of a degree Celsius in a hundred and twenty years. Not very dramatic." She pointed to the graph. "And what was the warmest year of the last century?"

"Looks like 1934."

"Does this graph indicate to you that global warming is occurring?"

"Well. The temperature is is going up." going up."

"For the last thirty years, yes. But it went down down for the previous thirty years. And current temperatures in the US are roughly the same as they were in the 1930s. So: Does this graph argue for global warming?" for the previous thirty years. And current temperatures in the US are roughly the same as they were in the 1930s. So: Does this graph argue for global warming?"

"Yes," Evans said. "It's just not as dramatic in the US as it is in the rest of the world, but it's still happening."

"Does it trouble you that the most accurate temperature record shows the least warming?"

"No. Because global warming is a global phenomenon. It's not just the US."

"If you had to defend these graphs in a court of law, do you think you could persuade a jury of your position? Or would a jury look at the graph and say, this global warming stuff is nothing serious?"

"Leading the witness," he said, laughing.

In fact, Evans was feeling slightly uneasy. But only slightly. He'd heard such claims before, at environmental conferences. Industry hacks could slap together data that they had massaged and twisted, and give a convincing, well-prepared speech, and before Evans knew it, he'd start to doubt what he knew.

As if she were reading his mind, Jennifer said, "These graphs show solid data, Peter. Temperature records from Goddard Institute for Space Studies at Columbia University. Carbon dioxide levels from Mauna Loa and the Law Dome ice cores in Antarctica.* All generated by researchers who believe firmly in global warming." All generated by researchers who believe firmly in global warming."

"Yes," he said. "Because the overwhelming consensus of scientists around the world is that global warming is is happening and it happening and it is is a major worldwide threat." a major worldwide threat."

"Okay, good," she said smoothly. "I'm glad that none of this changes your views. Let's turn to some other questions of interest. David?"

One of the graduate students leaned forward. "Mr. Evans, I'd like to talk to you about land use, the urban heat island effect, and satellite data on the temperature of the troposphere."

Evans thought, Oh Jesus. Oh Jesus. But he just nodded. "Okay..." But he just nodded. "Okay..."

"One of the issues we're trying to address concerns how surface temperatures change with land use. Are you familiar with that issue?"

"Not really, no." He looked at his watch. "Frankly, you people are working at a level of detail that is beyond me. I just listen to what the scientists say-"

"And we're preparing a lawsuit," Jennifer said, "based on what scientists say. This level of detail is where the suit will be fought."

"Fought?" Evans shrugged. "Who's going to fight it? Nobody with any stature. There isn't a reputable scientist in the world who doesn't believe in global warming."

"On that point, you are wrong," she said. "The defense will call full professors from MIT, Harvard, Columbia, Duke, Virginia, Colorado, UC Berkeley, and other prestigious schools. They will call the former president of the National Academy of Sciences. They may also call some Nobel Prize winners. They will bring in professors from England, from the Max Planck Institute in Germany, from Stockholm University in Sweden. These professors will argue that global warming is at best unproven, and at worst pure fantasy."

"Their research paid for by industry, no doubt."

"A few. Not all."

"Arch-conservatives. Neocons. Neocons."

"The focus in litigation," she said, "will be on the data."

Evans looked at them and saw the concern on their faces. And he thought, They really believe they might lose this thing. They really believe they might lose this thing.

"But this is ridiculous," Evans said. "All you have to do is read the newspapers, or watch television-"

"Newspapers and television are susceptible to carefully orchestrated media campaigns. Lawsuits are not."

"Then forget mass media," Evans said, "and just read the scientific journals-"

"We do. They're not necessarily helpful to our side. Mr. Evans, we have a lot to go over. If you'd hold your protestations, we can get on with the issues."

It was at that moment that the phone buzzed, and Balder delivered him from his torment. "Send the guy from Hassle and Black into my office," he said. "I have ten minutes for him."

VANUTU TEAM.

TUESDAY, AUGUST 24.

12:04 P.M.

Balder was ensconced in a glass-walled office, with his feet up on a glass desk, working his way through a stack of briefs and research papers. He didn't take his feet down as Evans came in.

"You find it interesting?" he said. He meant the interrogation.

"In a way," Evans said. "But if you'll pardon my saying so, I get the sense they're worried they might lose."

"I have no doubt that we will win this case," Balder said. "No doubt whatsoever. But I don't want my people thinking that way! I want them worried as hell. I want my team running scared before any trial. And especially this one. We are bringing this suit against the EPA, and in anticipation of that, the agency has retained outside counsel in the person of Barry Beckman."

"Whew," Evans said. "Big guns."

Barry Beckman was the most famous litigator of his generation. A professor at Stanford Law School at twenty-eight, he left the university in his early thirties to go into private practice. He had already represented Microsoft, Toyota, Phillips, and a host of other multinationals. Beckman had an incredibly agile mind, a charming manner, a quick sense of humor, and a photographic memory. Everyone knew that when he argued before the Supreme Court (as he had done three times already) he cited document page numbers as he answered the Justices' questions. "Your honor, I believe you will find that in footnote 17 on the bottom of page 237." Like that.