Problems Involving Modifications of the Basic Plan

Relatively minor deviations from decisions reached during the first and second steps of the solution of a military problem are frequently required during the action phase, because of incentives arising from the demands of the situation. Such requirements will not occasion serious dislocation in the predetermined effort of the competent commander.

However, more momentous situations are also to be expected. These will present new problems for the commander to solve. Such new problems, so long as they do not challenge the integrity of the basic plan, will not prevent the competent commander from proceeding with his predetermined effort if he takes appropriate action in due time to control the unfolding situation. To maintain such control may call for the exercise of outstanding qualities of the mind and of the will.

For example, it is a.s.sumed that the commander's basic Decision was to destroy an enemy convoy, the purpose of the Decision being to prevent the convoy from reaching its destination. Now, it is supposed that, during the supervision of the action planned for the destruction of the enemy convoy, the commander receives information of a hostile reinforcement. It is further supposed that this reinforcement, if it joins the enemy convoy's escort, can jeopardize the success of the basic plan.

The commander is now confronted with a serious situation which, if not controlled by action of the right kind, at the right time, and at the right place, may result in shattering his basic plan. However, if the commander takes action along correct lines in due time, he can still preserve the integrity of his basic plan and so continue to control the shaping of the situation.

Having re-examined his solution of his basic problem and found it sound, the commander finds himself under the necessity of resolving a perplexity as to what to do about the enemy reinforcement. In this case, he concludes that his proper action is to prevent the enemy reinforcement from protecting the convoy. This task, self-a.s.signed because of the demands of the situation, becomes the basis for the mission of his new problem, the mission being:--

(Task) To prevent the enemy reinforcements from protecting the convoy,

(Purpose) in order to contribute to the eventual destruction of the convoy.

The commander now considers the various courses of action open to him for the accomplishment of this mission. He also considers the enemy courses of action. He then considers each of the former in relation to each of the latter. He compares, on this basis, each of his retained courses of action with the others and so selects the best course of action. Finally, he arrives, in this manner, by the same process as in a basic problem (Chapter VI), at a decision as to the best course of action. Should this decision be to sink the enemy reinforcement, its statement linked to its purpose, would be:--

To destroy the enemy reinforcement, in order to prevent it from protecting the convoy.

Problems Challenging the Integrity of the Basic Plan

During the planned action, a change in the situation may have the effect of challenging the integrity of the basic plan. The commander is then faced by a problem calling for the exercise of the highest order of ability. While problems of this type probably occur with least frequency, they are the most important of those which may be encountered during the fourth step.

Because such a problem, arising from the demands of a new situation, requires a re-estimate of the basic situation, the essential procedure is the same as for a basic problem (Chapter VI), but certain modifications necessarily appear.

Summary of the Situation. While a commander will rarely find himself operating without instructions, the importance of problems arising when no directive applies is not lessened by the fact that such problems may infrequently occur. When the commander is faced with a situation not covered in orders of his superior, action may be necessary before he can inform higher authority and receive instructions. Usually this situation will be an emergency. Often it will not allow time for a written estimate. The fact that such a situation has arisen, and the reasons causing the commander to conclude that it has arisen, are appropriately included in Section I-A of the Estimate, under the "Summary of the Situation".

Recognition of the Incentive. The conclusion on the part of the commander that the situation requires him to make provision for its maintenance, or for a change, which in either case calls for a departure from his basic Decision, const.i.tutes a recognition of his new incentive.

Appreciation of the Objective. Frequently the new incentive will indicate that the objective embodied in the commander's present task is no longer suitable, but that the purpose of his mission still applies. By modifying the objective indicated in his a.s.signed task, but adhering to that in the purpose of his mission, he may be able to visualize a new objective which will be appropriate to the new circ.u.mstances. In this case the retained purpose a.s.sists the commander to select a new objective which he can confidently adopt as the basis for a new task which he a.s.signs to himself.

If neither the commander's task nor the purpose of his mission apply in the new situation, the evolution of a proper new objective may be much more difficult. Under such circ.u.mstances the commander, by the use of such information as may be in his possession, will first endeavor to deduce an objective whose attainment const.i.tutes a suitable purpose. Such a deduction will be made on the basis of the larger circ.u.mstances of the war, the campaign, or the operation.

Having made this determination, the commander will then deduce a task appropriate to the new situation and in furtherance of the adopted purpose. (See Chapter IV, page 52.)

Formulation of the New Mission. An appropriate new task having been determined, as well as a proper purpose, the commander is now in a position to formulate his mission. The procedure to this end is the same as described (Chapter VI) with respect to the estimate of a basic problem.

Other Items of the Estimate. For such problems of the fourth step, other items of the Estimate Form require no essential modification of the procedures described (Chapter VI) as applicable for the first step.

The Further Procedure Applicable to Such Problems of The Fourth Step

After the commander has reached his new decision, the further course of events may call for the resolution of the required new action into detailed operations and for the inauguration of a new planned effort.

In such case, these procedures are accomplished through processes essentially similar to, and fortified by the experience gained in, those distinctive of the second and third steps. (Chapters VII and VIII, respectively).

The new planned effort having been inaugurated, its supervision continues, in turn, through the critical observation and the appropriate action described herein as distinctive of the fourth step.

The Running Estimate of the Situation

The procedure employed in the constant, close observation of the unfolding of the situation--to the end that justified changes of plan may be initiated, while those uncalled-for may be avoided--is known as the "Running Estimate of the Situation". Such an estimate, as indicated by its name, is intended to keep pace with the flow of events, so that the commander may be a.s.sured, at any time, that his concurrent action will be based on sound decision. To this end, there is a definite technique for which the standard Estimate Form provides the basis. This technique is an aid for solution of the problem involved in the supervision of the planned action.

Aim of the Technique Involved. Any procedure adopted to this end is properly intended to a.s.sist in the supervision of the planned action, but not to restrict the commander to particular methods. Flexibility is a prime consideration. The ultimate aim of the technique is (see also page 114) the rapid and successful exercise of mental effort in the fast-moving events of the tactical engagement. It is under such conditions, more especially, that effective supervision of the planned action becomes a problem calling for every facility that can be afforded the commander.

Nature of the Technique. The solution of this problem requires mentally or in writing according to the particular case, (a) the a.s.sembly of information as to events bearing on the situation, and (b) the organization of this knowledge in a manner permitting its ready use. Accordingly, it will be found helpful, where circ.u.mstances permit written records to be kept, to provide for (a) a journal (a form of diary) of events, with a file to support it, and (b) a work sheet to organize applicable information in proper form for use. The journal affords a basis for the work sheet. The latter in turn facilitates the procedure, continuous while the action lasts, of estimating the situation so that a Decision maybe rendered at any time desired.

Where written records are unnecessary or impracticable, the same fundamental process is nevertheless employed. The fact that the process is then wholly mental, without extraneous aids, involves no change in the basic character of the essential procedure.

Journal. The journal, to serve the purpose indicated above, is kept in a form permitting entry of essential data as to information needed for the Running Estimate. Such data may include (see the suggested Form, next page) the appropriate heading of the journal, the entries applicable to each item of pertinent information, and the authentication with which the journal, for any chosen period, is closed.

JOURNAL

(Organization, staff subdivision, etc.)

From: .................................................

(date and hour)

To: ...................................................

(date and hour)

Place: ................................................

----+-----+------+-------+------+--------+--------------------+------- TOR

TOD

Time

Serial

From

To

Incidents, Messages,

Action

Dated

No.

(Action)

Orders, etc.

Taken ----+-----+------+-------+------+--------+--------------------+-------

----+-----+------+-------+------+--------+--------------------+-------

The heading of the journal is completed by inserting the designation of the organization and, where appropriate, the staff subdivision concerned, as well as the date and hour of beginning and closing the journal, and the place (or general area) where the commander is located.

Each entry includes, where appropriate, a time notation: for example, as to the occurrence of an incident; the receipt (TOR) or despatch (TOD) of a message; the receipt or issue of an order. The serial number a.s.signed to the entry is recorded. The "time dated" is the date and hour of the incident, or, in the case of the message or order, the date and hour appearing thereon.

Entry of the nature of incidents or of the content of messages and orders, etc., is made under the heading "Incidents, Messages, Orders, etc."; for example:

As to an incident:

Enemy bombed light forces in screen from northward.

As to a message:

Our troops held up on Beach A since 0500 this date.

In the case of a message or order, the source and the action addressee(s) are recorded in the columns marked "From" and "To (action)" respectively. The content of the despatch or order then follows. The amount of detail to be included depends upon the needs of the work sheet (see below) in its capacity as a basis for the running estimate of the situation. Further details can be ascertained, if needed, by reference to the journal file.

The action taken ("None" entered, if none is taken) is indicated briefly under that heading. In the case of the above entry as to the enemy bombing light forces, the "action taken" might, for example read:

Prepared for torpedo attack.