"I wanted Senator Graham to come to let you know that the election is over at home," he said. "We're here to make a commitment to your country, but, Mr. President, things have got to change. President-elect Obama wants to be helpful, but this idea of picking up the phone, calling President Obama like you did President Bush, is not going to happen."

I understand, Karzai said. He seemed eager to accommodate, gushing with lines like "Wonderful" and "No problem" as Biden talked.

"Mr. President," Graham said, "the economy in America is on its knees. If we don't see some progress on corruption, on better government, Republicans are not going to continue to vote for more troops, more money for Afghanistan if we don't see some real change."

Biden criticized Karzai's failure to govern with all of Afghanistan in mind, his unwillingness to travel the country and build a political consensus among the many tribes and ethnicities. He mentioned the ornate homes of Afghan officials near the presidential palace, no doubt paid for by the U.S.

"You're the mayor of Kabul," Biden said, meaning Karzai was isolated in the capital. "Replacing governors willy-nilly has got to stop." Karzai routinely doled out provincial governorships as favors to his political supporters.

Graham broached the subject of Ahmed Wali Karzai. "Mr. President," he said, "now you can't come to Afghanistan without hearing about your brother."

"Well, show me the file, Senator," Karzai replied.

"We will, one day," Graham said.

The mood began to sour. Karzai seemed offended.

"There's only one issue that troubles us," Karzai said, "and that's civilian casualties. We need to work together on this. People here don't want you to leave. Your interest is to defeat terrorism. We will help."

"We're doing everything we can to minimize civilian casualties," Biden answered. "In a war, they can't all be avoided. You know that." It would help, he added, if Karzai didn't hold news conferences denouncing the U.S. every time there were allegations of civilian casualties. "You need to come to us. We will find the facts each time, but what we have to avoid is immediate public statements that don't reflect the facts."

Graham, the Air Force Reserve lawyer, jumped in. "Our rules of engagement are very sensitive to civilian casualties," he said. "And nobody hates it more than the people involved, but, Mr. President, we cannot be accused of every bad act the moment it happens based on what a Taliban press release says. You're feeding the enemy. You're empowering them to get more involved in the civilian population." The requirement to get a warrant before a raid was absurd, he said. "We're in the middle of a war." Graham realized he was getting hotter. "We're not going to ask our troops to become cops. We want to be partners. Nobody would like the first person to go through the door [in a raid] to be an Afghan more than Lindsey Graham, but the first person through the door is an American. And the hope is that one day the first person through the door will be an Afghan." But, he told Karzai, he had to cease playing to his domestic audience.

"You have to be in on this with us," Biden added. "If this is not a war for you, then we won't be sending our warriors." The death of innocent Afghans sets back American interests, Biden said. "When we break their hearts, we'll lose their minds."

Karzai seemed to realize he had hit a sensitive nerve. "It's not a criticism," the Afghan president said. "It's letting you know there's a problem."

But let's deal with that problem in private instead of press conferences, Biden said.

Karzai's tone sharpened. Civilian casualties were a public matter. The Americans seemed to believe the death of, say, 30 Afghan villagers was insignificant. And Biden should not have belittled him in front of his own cabinet.

"This has gone on for too long," Karzai said. "The Afghan people will not support it."

"We may have reached that point ourselves, and we'll have to cut our losses," Biden said.

"The Afghan people must be partners, not victims," Karzai said.

"I believe we can and will do a better job on this," Biden said. "But if you don't want us, we're happy to leave. Just tell us. Instead of sending 30,000, maybe it'll be 10,000. Or maybe it'll be nothing. Or we could just send you economic assistance. If you don't want us, just tell us."

At that, the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, William Wood, interrupted them as a desperate marriage counselor might.

"I think this has been a useful conversation," he said. "It shows frustrations on both sides."

"We're just poor Afghans," Karzai said. "I know no one cares about-"

Biden threw down his napkin. "This is beneath you, Mr. President."

It appeared to be a struggle for both men to contain their tempers. Graham had been to so many of these freaking dinners he could barely count them. But this was "a dinner to remember," he later said. It ended shortly after that exchange. By the time they returned to the embassy, the ambassador was flooded with calls from distressed Karzai cabinet members asking, is this okay? What's going on?

Biden's visit was shrouded in secrecy. There were no public statements or press briefings. Biden and Graham later met with the commander in Afghanistan, U.S. Army General David McKiernan, who didn't share as pessimistic a view. Biden indicated to McKiernan that he would be getting more troops and asked: Can you pull this off?

McKiernan said, "We're not losing, but to get off the fence to where we're actually winning we need these additional troops." He had a pending request for 30,000 that the Bush administration had not acted on.

There were positive signs in Regional Command East, which contained the Hindu Kush mountains. American troops had performed admirably, securing the valleys and towns. "We're getting to the point where the gains are irreversible," McKiernan said.

But in sharp contrast, Regional Command South was rapidly deteriorating. RC South included Kandahar and Helmand provinces. It was the nexus of the Taliban insurgency, the drug trade and Karzai's nepotistic corruption. What was being done in the east that was not being done in the south? Biden asked.

McKiernan struggled to answer. More emphasis had been put on the east and there was better cooperation with the Afghans there, he said.

Biden was not persuaded. If the U.S. was really winning in the east, then the best move would be to reverse-engineer that success and replicate it in the south.

What about al Qaeda? Biden asked. The terrorist group was the reason the Americans were in this country. What was their presence like in Afghanistan now?

"We haven't really seen an Arab here in a couple of years," McKiernan said. For all practical purposes, there was no al Qaeda there. That confirmed what Biden suspected. Al Qaeda-the impetus of this war-was a Pakistani problem.

"I'm looking forward to working with you," Biden said, shaking McKiernan's hand.

The vice presidentelect believed that off-the-cuff conversations often yielded more insights than formal presentations. As he made his rounds with the troops, after asking the basic "How's it going?" he then slipped in a "What are we trying to do here?" Everyone-colonels, lieutenants, sergeants-gave a different answer.

"Basically, we're trying to rebuild this country," said one, "so that it can stand on its own two feet."

Another said, "We're trying to get al Qaeda."

Biden replied, "But I was just told they're not here."

A more common answer from the front-line troops was, "I don't know."

Tony Blinken, 46, Biden's top foreign policy adviser for the last seven years and now his national security adviser, was on the trip. A lawyer who had served as a staffer on the Clinton National Security Council, Blinken joined his boss and Graham for a session about what they had seen. "I don't know if they can ever pull this off," he said.

This idea of building up the Afghan government, Biden said, and the army and the police in a functioning way, is maybe a bridge too far. Was it doable?

"I don't know if it's doable or not," Graham said. "I had the same doubts about Iraq," but this seemed to be the best chance they would get. "How does it end? Does Karzai ever govern better? I don't know," Graham said. "He's been given too much room to maneuver without accountability." He was certain, however, that this visit had been a good start for engaging anew with Karzai.

Blinken was in the doubters' camp. "How do you leave?" he asked.

Back in Washington, Biden hauled Graham into the transition headquarters to meet with Obama on Wednesday, January 14.

He told Obama the major headline from the trip. "If you ask ten of our people what we're trying to accomplish here, you get ten different answers," he said. "This has been on autopilot."

We can't be on autopilot, Obama responded. We need to get a grip on this and that's going to be the first order of business.

The CIA briefing on the region and the conversation in Pakistan was disheartening, Biden said. We have our work cut out for us, but I support sending more troops in.

Floated in the media that day was the appointment of Richard Holbrooke as the State Department's special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Hillary Clinton would likely select her friend Holbrooke, a 67-year-old veteran diplomat best known for resolving the Bosnian War in 1995, to handle Karzai and Zardari. was the appointment of Richard Holbrooke as the State Department's special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Hillary Clinton would likely select her friend Holbrooke, a 67-year-old veteran diplomat best known for resolving the Bosnian War in 1995, to handle Karzai and Zardari.

"He's the most egotistical bastard I've ever met," Biden told Obama, "but he's maybe the right guy for the job." Though absorbed with being a hero, Holbrooke was so committed to succeeding that he would focus his extraordinary talent, energy and ego on the assignment and might just pull it off.

"We know your view about Holbrooke," Obama said, cutting Biden off and turning to Graham.

"I talked to Senator McCain," Graham said. "I just think Afghanistan's going to take a lot more resources. And Pakistan is double dealing." He thought Biden's tough approach with Karzai was necessary. "I would urge you, Mr. President," he said, though Obama was six days away from inauguration, "to deal with Karzai from a distance. And pick your engagements with him wisely and let the pressure build to push for better governance. And at the end of the day, you can count on me and Senator McCain ... and others to stand by you as we try to turn around Afghanistan."

Obama smiled but didn't betray his thoughts.

Graham said that it was essential that Obama show progress in the next year-better governance in Afghanistan, prosecutions for corruption, send people to jail, or an Afghan army that could go through the door first in a raid. Without those game changers, he said, "You're going to lose the public." Traction for the 2010 midterm congressional campaigns would take hold and Republicans would be running against Obama, just as the Democrats did against Bush. "Your responsibility for Afghanistan will be solidified in a year. And if this thing is bumping along, I can tell you now that the Republican Party will not walk off a cliff for another unpopular war. And I may be the only guy standing on the cliff with you."

"Thanks," the president-elect said.

"Mr. President, we're losing this battle," Graham said. "Your assessment of the importance of Afghanistan is dead-on. And your assessment of we've taken our eye off the ball is right." As senators, they had disagreed about sending more troops into Iraq, since Graham believed winning in Afghanistan would be impossible if we lost in Iraq. But now Graham was encouraging Obama to reset things in Afghanistan.

As Obama, Biden and Graham headed for a news conference, Obama pulled Graham aside to thank him. headed for a news conference, Obama pulled Graham aside to thank him.

"Mr. President," Graham said, "this is not your war. This is our war."

7

On Tuesday, January 20, inauguration day, David Axelrod encountered President Bush on the platform at the Capitol. As Obama's chief campaign strategist and now his senior adviser, Axelrod had repeatedly criticized Bush.

"Mr. President, I was on television this morning," said Axelrod. this morning," said Axelrod.

"I don't watch television," Bush snapped back.

"Well, I'm going to tell you what I said," Axelrod continued calmly. "I said you conducted this transition like a true patriot and we really appreciate it."

"Oh, that's great," the president said, warming. "Listen, you're in for the ride of your life and you just sort of hang on and really enjoy it."

The day before, Rahm Emanuel-Axelrod's friend for more than 25 years-had told him there were contingency plans to cancel the inaugural. Credible intelligence showed Credible intelligence showed that a group of Somali extremists planned to attack Obama by setting off explosives. that a group of Somali extremists planned to attack Obama by setting off explosives.

"We might have to shut this thing down," Emanuel had said. "We would have to be prepared for that."

An inaugural attack never occurred. The attention instead was squarely on the speech. What would Obama say? One of the people wondering was General Jones, who as Obama's national security adviser ought to know. But he had not seen a draft. "I had asked," he said, almost trembling. Emanuel and the political operatives would not show it to him. It was not a happy beginning given Obama's promise to ask Jones his "opinion or judgment before I do anything." But Jones knew the Obama team was still in campaign mode, which hopefully would end when they all settled into the White House. Still, being kept in the dark about the speech was insulting.

In his address, Obama devoted one sentence to the wars: "We will begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people and forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan." one sentence to the wars: "We will begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people and forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan."

As Obama spoke, General Petraeus was again in Afghanistan. He had spent the past week visiting its neighboring countries, trying to line up safe supply routes into the war zone. Getting supplies into Afghanistan was hard. Most traveled through Pakistan, but a gauntlet of Taliban insurgents lurked along the Khyber Pass, the mountainous road linking the countries. Petraeus had explored alternative routes that bypassed Pakistan by entering Afghanistan from the former Soviet republics in the north.

On the evening of January 20, his C-17 lifted off the tarmac in Kabul, bound first for refueling in Germany and then Washington.

When the plane landed in Germany, Petraeus took one of his brutal five-mile runs, hoping to avoid sleep medication for the transatlantic flight. He was racing the sun to be at the new president's first meeting on Iraq.

Obama called his national security team to the Situation Room at 4:15 P.M P.M. on January 21. Located in the basement of the West Wing, the Situation Room is a high-tech bunker.

Many of the senior officials and White House staffers had been up late partying at the inaugural balls the night before, and they showed it. Not the president.

Opposing the Iraq War had been central to Obama's rise, causing some members of the Bush administration, including Gates, to fear what the new president might do. During the campaign, Obama had promised to remove all combat troops from Iraq within 16 months of becoming president, by the middle of 2010. But several Bush administration decisions made such a quick withdrawal unlikely. These decisions would prevent what Bush officials considered to be a precipitous withdrawal.

The key decision was installing Petraeus at CentCom. Second was appointing Army General Raymond Odierno, who had been Petraeus's deputy and had received much of the credit for helping stabilize Iraq, as the overall commander in Iraq. The third was the Status of Forces Agreement signed by Bush little more than a month before Obama's inauguration. It said U.S. combat forces would not be out until the end of 2011.

At the January 21 meeting, Obama directed that he wanted three options.

He commissioned a 60-day review, saying, "I want to do a thorough review in Iraq and I want to figure out how we're going to get to where we want to be." There had been no forewarning about this assessment to the continuing NSC staff who would be conducting it. Among the options they were to consider at the president's request was the 16-month withdrawal.

After the meeting, Petraeus was about to board his plane and return to Central Command headquarters in Tampa. Sorry, he was told, on Friday the president and the National Security Council would talk about the war that wasn't faring well-Afghanistan-and he had better stay in Washington.

With an extra day in Washington, Petraeus spent the afternoon of Thursday, January 22, on the red-brick campus of the National Defense University, going over an internal review of the entire Central Command region. He liked to joke about the Pentagon's abuse of PowerPoint, the software program that often tortures audiences with its tedious, jargon-laden slides. But after about four months of work, the CentCom regional review had reached an epic length of 1,000 PowerPoint slides.

A team of 80 was drilling down on the Afghanistan component of the review, including Derek Harvey from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). The 54-year-old retired Army colonel The 54-year-old retired Army colonel had been among Petraeus's most trusted intelligence advisers in Iraq, a country Harvey first explored during the 1980s by taxicab. had been among Petraeus's most trusted intelligence advisers in Iraq, a country Harvey first explored during the 1980s by taxicab.

Harvey approached intelligence with the step-by-step methodology of a homicide detective. Intelligence analysts tend to rely on secret reports-human agents, intercepted electronic communications, and pictures from satellites and drones. Harvey "widened the aperture," studying prisoner interrogations, battlefield reports, and reams of enemy documents-financial records, propaganda and Taliban communiques. By sifting through the enemy's paper trail, he pieced together clues that others might miss.

What have you dug up? Petraeus asked him.

"It is the blind leading the blind," Harvey said. The U.S. remained dangerously ignorant about the Afghan insurgency. Basic questions had gone unasked over the course of the war: Who is the enemy? Where are they? How do they see the fight? What are their motivations?

"We know too little about the enemy to craft a winning strategy," Harvey said, implying that the current strategy put America on the path to defeat and-unless the intelligence gaps were filled-a new strategy would be futile.

Harvey said the Afghanistan commander, General David McKiernan, believed the reconciliation successes-making peace with elements of the insurgency-from Iraq could not be duplicated in Afghanistan, so he had not directed intelligence collection toward economic, social and political issues of the Afghan tribes and villages. But having reconciliation efforts was likely the only way out of the war. McKiernan had also complained to Harvey that he barely had the military resources to fight the insurgency, saying, "I don't have enough to do my own job."

Harvey was willing to concede that Afghanistan was a Band-Aid effort. More than seven years into the war, the Director of National Intelligence-the agency established to coordinate intelligence across the government-had yet to hire a mission manager for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Petraeus wrote the new DNI, Blair, asking him to remedy the situation. He then followed up personally until the matter was resolved. A former CIA officer was appointed as an associate DNI. But that wasn't nearly enough.

What Harvey had told him was a forehead-smacking moment for Petraeus. The problem was obvious. He needed to fix the intelligence shortcomings immediately. Shuffling things among the DNI, CIA, NSA, DIA and other agencies would only prolong the problem.

Petraeus decided to create his own intelligence agency inside Cent-Com. Regional commands in Europe and the Pacific had intelligence divisions. CentCom should too.

Can you draft plans for an agency modeled on your approach? Petraeus asked Harvey.

Soon, Harvey was appointed director of the new Afghanistan-Pakistan Center of Excellence based at CentCom headquarters in Tampa, Florida. Petraeus rearranged funds within CentCom to cover the projected $108 million in annual expenses, leaving Congress unaware of the center's existence for several months.

Harvey was trying to revolutionize intelligence collection. Most intelligence agencies rotated their staff through two-year postings. The center would commit its analysts to five-year assignments, with the goal of having them gain fluency in Dari and Pashto, the primary languages spoken in Afghanistan.

Harvey threw his life into the job. He started each morning at 4 A.M A.M., worked 15-hour days, and rarely slept through the night. The obsession came at a personal cost. Harvey's wife filed for divorce. One of his three sons was having trouble. As a result, friends worried about Harvey's health.

Harvey preferred sources that gave him a feel for the ground. Valuable insights came from unclassified material, such as the weekly summaries of engineers in Afghanistan who oversaw bridge and road projects. He also regularly logged on to Harmony, a government site that posted translated copies of enemy documents.

A counterinsurgency strategy relied on rock-solid intelligence. It meant breaking down a province village by village; and knowing a village house by house. Tracking the relationships among tribal elders, mullahs, farmers and opium merchants mattered as much as spotting the enemy. When the objective was to protect the population, soldiers had to distinguish between whom to defend and whom to shoot. Insurgents had the advantage, since they looked like civilians.

American intelligence analysts tracked 90 distinct categories of information from Afghanistan. Harvey wanted to expand that to 500. The insurgency's resources, leadership, financing, freedom of movement, popular support and group cohesion all had to be measured. No such metrics had existed before, and huge disparities existed among the reports from the international coalition in Afghanistan. Out of more than 40 U.S. allies, only the Romanian soldiers stationed in Zabul province consistently recorded what Harvey wanted to know. So Harvey fashioned uniform questionnaires.

He then color-coded Afghanistan based on the data. Information about the international coalition was blue. The insurgents were red. The Afghan army and police were green. And the Afghan people were white. Harvey could chart the relationship between the Taliban and Afghan people by checking where red overlapped with white. He plotted the information on maps, searching for patterns amid the mountains, valleys, villages. As he parsed the data, Harvey concluded that the war could be won, but the U.S. government would have to make monumental long-term commitments for years that might be unpalatable with voters.

"I think Afghanistan is doable, it's not sellable," Harvey concluded.

On Friday, January 23, at 11:20 A.M A.M., the president took his seat in a large black leather chair at the head of the Situation Room conference table for his first National Security Council meeting on Afghanistan.