Chapter 421: Year-End Summary and Long-Term Plans

A familiar pillow pressed against Corco's back. At last, the King of the South could sink back into his familiar seat, with the familiar desk of his familiar study in front of him. As far as he was concerned, he would have loved to just close his eyes and enjoy the long-lost sensation in quiet for a bit. However, there was no time to lose. As always, things needed his attention, and people presented him with problems he had to solve for them.

Thus, he once again focused on Fadelio, who had been presenting a summary of the southern kingdom's territory's development over the past year. This meeting was something that should have been done at the start of the new year already, but the war had still been going on at the time. Thus, they were more than two months late on their year-end review and next year's budget this time.

"All in all, the officials have already taken up position within the various estates of the rebellious lords," the attendant explained, with his trusty notepad in hand. "There have been some minor issues with local resistance, but every group of officials we have sent our has been accompanied by one squadron of soldiers, so no one should be dumb enough to harm them directly. Otherwise, they would be declaring war on the crown again, and I doubt anyone would dare to do that, at least not for now. There shouldn't be any need to get involved directly from our side any more, at least not until our officials have gained a foothold in their territories or something major happens."

The first to comment on Fadelio's report wasn't Corco, but Brymstock, the southern kingdom's head of the central bank and minister of finance.

"That would be for the best. Not only would another direct intervention be expensive after we've demobilized our main force. I'd also preferred if we wouldn't lose any of our workers. My office has been almost deserted after so many were pulled away to supervise the new lands, and retraining them is a pain already. The more workers we lose, the more expensive it will be to keep our offices running."

Apart from Corco's minister of finance, other important government officials were present as well. Of course Sumaci was there, as was Antaya, the mother of Fadelio and Tamaya, as well as head of the ghost warriors. Much of the information Fadelio had summarized so far had been collected by her men. Normally, Atau would have been there as well, but he was still busy fighting the pirates in the Verduic Sea, so he had to miss out this time. Maybe it was for the best, Corco thought. This way, at least he wouldn't meet his prospective mother-in-law prematurely.

"Also, people dying is bad in general," Corco added on top of Brym's utilitarian comment, before he waved towards Fadelio. "Anyways, continue."

"From my side, this would be the last issue which needs mention. At least for now," the royal attendant concluded. "There is another major problem that I have become aware of since my return to Saniya. But it should not be considered part of the year-end summary, so I have placed it towards the end of today's itinerary."

While Corco had continued to travel the country and subdue individual estates, Fadelio had returned to Saniya right after the end of the war. As a result, the king wasn't surprised that his attendant had stumbled onto problems he himself wasn't aware of. Although he was curious what was so important that it had to be mentioned at their budgetary meeting, it would be better to continue with the year-end summary for now, or they could get mixed up and forget something important.

"That's fine then. So who's next?" he asked as a result.

"That would be Brym with last year's finances." Fadelio motioned towards Brym, who sprang up from his seat and began his prepared speech.

"Yes, there are good news, and terrible news," he opened with a devious twinkle in his eyes.

"Right, just start with whatever you think would lead to the most poignant speech," Corco complained in response. Although he knew that his own education was responsible for Brym's overly dramatic personality, it still annoyed him sometimes.

"Well, the good news is that our fiscal revenue has increased compared to last year," Brym continued, his smile still as bright as if he hadn't heard the complaint. "The terrible news is that almost all of it is gone already. Compared to last year, our total income over the four seasons from spring of the sixth year to spring of the seventh has gone up a bit to about 29.8 million Sila. Those numbers are composed of income from seigniorage, tax income from agriculture, profits generated through trade from the businesses owned by the crown, tariffs received from foreign merchants, as well as other miscellaneous taxes. Of course, gifts to the royal family like those received during the royal wedding are private property and thus not part of the budgetary calculations."

Unlike Fadelio, Brym didn't seem to need any notes to remember all the numbers in his head. Without pause, he continued the summary.

"First, our income from seigniorage has increased significantly. We have taken in precious metals worth about 4.28 million Sila, and in return we have minted coins and printed bank notes worth around 13.48 million Sila, thus bringing our net income to about 9.2 million Sila. It should be noted that the increased activity of the mint has been necessary since there has been a considerable increase in commercial activity in Saniya and Harkay over the pa.s.sing year. We needed to mint more money to keep up with demand and prevent a cash shortage. Since we have closely monitored demand and restricted our use of the presses, we shouldn't expect significant inflation for next year."

Seigniorage, or the money a government would naturally make in the process of minting coins or printing bank notes, was always a significant part of any sovereign government's income. However, ever since the introduction of paper money in Medala, this number had gone up significantly and now made up the largest portion of the total yearly budget.

"Agricultural income is up as well, since a lot more land has been opened up in the Chawir Marshes once again. As mentioned before, the amount of arable land on the territory now totals over 62,000 hectares. Although we do not receive money from agriculture directly, the total amount of grain or comparable products we have received in the form of taxes or rent over the past year was 27,000 tons. The largest contribution to that number is rice, then barley, wheat, and beets. There are various other products as well, but they only amount to less than eight percent of our income total. The details can be found in the report I have sent to the king's office."

Brym waited for Fadelio to nod in confirmation, before he continued.

"Although our total crop yields are up by 17% compared to the previous year, we have experienced a sharp increase in population, which means that the amount of crops suitable for exports have only gone up by about 7%."

Over the past year, immigration from the north once more made up most of the population increase in Corco's territory. This year alone, almost 30,000 people moved to Saniya and Harkay. As a result, just the population of the Chawir Marshes alone had reached a staggering 225,000, a far cry from the low-point of 80,000 right after Corco had taken over the estate.

"In addition, average food prices have gone down since the introduction of fertilizer," Brym continued the bad news. "As a result, our fiscal revenue from grain exports has shrunk slightly last year, down to about 7.1 million Sila. I suggest we that we stop exporting our fertilizer, especially to the northern kingdoms. Such measures support our enemies, and the profits from the trade with fertilizer get eaten by our reduced income from food exports."

"Denied," Corco said, before he explained in detail. "The people in the north are my people as well, so I want to make their lives easier if I can. Lower food costs also increase fertility, which will be good for us long-term. The sooner we start increasing the country's population, the larger the benefits will be later down the line."

"Not to seem heartless, but that seems like a poor reason to support our enemies," Fadelio said.

"Who said we're supporting our enemies with the fertilizer?" At the thought of his grand plans, Corco had to grin. "This is part of our long-term strategy, so I can't accept the cessation of fertilizer exports."

In response to the king's cryptic announcement, everyone was just staring at Corco, waiting for a more detailed explanation.

"Right. I guess everyone should know about this, since it's an importtant national strategy, but know that this is highly confidential. So everything said from here will not leave this room. Miss Antaya, if you please."

Corco motioned towards the head of his intelligence service. Of course, it was necessary for her to know about the country's long-term strategy, since intelligence had to be prepared long in advance. Thus prompted, Antaya bowed and dutifully explained to the room.

"Very well, King Corco. The fertilizer plan is very simple, though it will not bear fruit until years, or decades, later. At first, fertilizer will be exported, which will increase the yields per hectare for every field in Medala. As a result, all lords of Medala will generate greater income, even those in the north. However, by next year at the latest, the price of grain will be reduced back to an appropriate level, as there will be a large oversupply. Even estates which could not feed their population before will now be able to do so. Thus, demand for grain will be reduced appropriately. This is step one of the plan: By this point, the income of the lords will be back to its pre-fertilizer level, due to the reduced prices. However, they will still have to continue buying our fertilizer. If they do not, their income will shrink even further. Thus, they have gained no long-term benefit, while the kingdom has increased both its influence in the north as well as its income. Part two of the plan is speculative, and its completion lies far in the future. Since it is based on the king's own estimates, King should be more appropriate for any further explanations."

With this, Antaya bowed again, and motioned back towards Corco. For a few seconds, he just stared at the woman who had so much power and spent so little time in Saniya. Yet before the atmosphere could get too tense, he sighed.

"I guess I'll take it from here, since my own head of intelligence doesn't trust my judgment," he said. Back when he had told Antaya of his plan, she had been skeptical, since much of it was based on knowledge unknown to the woman. In that case, he would just have to let time prove him right, and handle the explanation by himself in the meantime. He was a better talker anyways.

"So, part two of the plan is based on a simple a.s.sumption: Once food is cheaper, people have more children," Corco explained. "That's not a hard and fast law, but at least in pre-industrial societies, population numbers go up as soon as food prices sink or people start making more money. Eventually, an equilibrium is regained, one in which most families struggle to feed their offspring. And then the population boom stops again. After the introduction of the fertilizer, I expect something similar to happen in Medala. In fact..."

Corco stretched his hand over to Fadelio, who wordlessly handed him a piece of paper from his notes. As always, his attendant did a perfect job at simplifying the king's work. Thus, Corco just had to read the numbers off the paper as he continued his explanation.

"Apart from our population increase through immigration from the north, our increase through births alone is seven thousand. That means our natural growth rate is also up significantly, from roughly 1.4% to roughly 3%. The numbers are a bit iffy since we are still lacking data, but it's good enough to draw a preliminary conclusion that my a.s.sumption is correct: Over the next decade at least, we can expect a ma.s.sive population boom in the southern kingdom, and I expect the numbers will look similar in the north."

For a second, Corco glanced around the room to make sure everyone was still listening, before he continued.

"Since that's the case, the population of the northern kingdoms will explode as well, which just means that they'll need to use more grain to feed their own population. Over time, all the increased yields from the use of fertilizer will have to be used for their own population, so the times of great export and great profits will be over. At that point, it's all too late for them. Their economy will be fully addicted to our fertilizer. In case we manage to protect our fertilizer production methods until then, all other lords of Medala will be dependent on us, even the ones in the north. They can't just let their people starve after all, or they'll risk revolution. Since... basically forever, a lack of affordable food is the main reason revolutionary ideas have spread. So, by that point, we'll have the northern lords in the palm of our hand. We can increase fertilizer prices to slowly squeeze them to death through economic sanctions, or incite revolution to remove them from power quickly. Though I don't even think we need to go that far, considering the soft power we would wield in the north by that point. If we play our cards right, we will be able to take over the northern kingdoms without any further bloodshed at all."

For a while, there was silence in the room. Corco leaned back into his chair in satisfaction, while the others digested what they had just heard. Finally, Brym was the first to comment.

"What an inspired strategy. I would have expected no less of my big bro." As he spoke, he also clapped his hands, though no one else joined in. Still, Corco thought that maybe he had also done some things right when it came to Brym's education. However, the same couldn't be said about his favorite student.

"It is a good plan," Sumaci began in a promising way. "However, it seems too idealized. Too much has to go right for this plan to succeed. And who knows what will happen in the next decades until the population catches up with the food prices?"

Not only his student disappointed him, even his own servants stabbed Corco in the back.

"I agree," Antaya said. "Protecting the secrets of the fertilizer has been one of the main missions of the ghost warriors over the past few years. While we have managed to protect the secret so far, it has provided considerable difficulty. Sooner or later, there will be a mistake somewhere, and the secret will be exposed. Such matters seem inevitable. Even more, if the lords of Medala truly became as dependent on fertilizer as King described, they would stop at nothing to escape their dependency. In that case, the work of the ghosts would become even more unbearable."

These additional reasonable concerns from his subordinate worsened Corco's mood further. Why could none of these people just solve these problems themselves, instead of ruining his perfectly good plans with them? Although he knew that both Sumaci and Antaya were right, he still didn't like the implications. Was it truly impossible to achieve a peaceful ending to this Era of Strife? After experiencing such a brutal war, this wasn't something he was willing to believe. And yet, as if he had just waited for his opportunity, his trusted friend was the last to jump in and burst his bubble.

"Indeed, the plan seems a bit too... idealistic," Fadelio concluded. "Rather, I believe that with the way the kingdom is developing, we will soon have the strength to overpower the two northern kingdoms combined, and quite easily at that. There shouldn't be a need to wait for decades until we reunify the Empire of Medala."

Although he worded his criticism more carefully, Fadelio couldn't hide his favoritism towards his mother. Again, Corco was grumbling internally that reality once more stood in the way of his perfectly good plan. Outnumbered even among his own, he finally had to concede defeat.

"Fine, I guess the plan is the best case scenario, and is unlikely to be realized. But just because ideals are hard to achieve doesn't mean we should give up on them. As far as I'm concerned, it's still our best shot at a peaceful unification. Plus, in the short and medium term, we can't annex any more territories anyways. Our administration is stretched as it is. So until some major event makes the fertilizer plan impossible, it will continue to be national strategy."

For a few seconds, Corco looked around the room. Although he heard no more complaints from among his trusted advisors, he also was no longer in the mood to continue talking about his grand plans.

"Anyways, it seems like we've gone off topic quite a bit," he said instead, before motioning towards Fadelio again. "Where were we?"

Luckily, his attendant still had his trusty notepad with him, and so he took a quick look, before the yearly budgetary meeting continued.