THE WAR.

The Bremen Cotton Exchange has never occupied itself with politics, but, of course, the members could not help taking serious notice of occurrences which shook the world's foundation. Together, with the expansion of business, grew also a political apprehension. France was lending milliards upon milliards to the Russian Czardom, with the express condition, that the money had to be expended in preparation for a war against Germany. One saw, that France gave Egypt to England, although it did not own it, on the other hand, England ceded Marocco to France, without having any sovereign right over that country. That Germany had interests in both places, was overlooked. The English newspapers, so widely read in Bremen for their business news, brought articles upon articles, picturing the dangers of a German Invasion. In the most lurid of colors, the cruelties of the war were painted, that was supposed to threaten England, and all this, for no other purpose, than to inflame the pa.s.sions of the English people.

What did the commerce do in face of these threatening symptoms?--Nothing!

Without an anxious thought, people looked after their business, and showed an optimism, which to-day, is inexplicable.

On the 25th of July in 1914--after the Austria-Serbian ultimatum--careful merchants insured their afloat cotton against war risks. The big German Insurance Companies took this risk for 1/8%, let us repeat it, one eighth per cent! How was it that the insurance companies were so unconcerned? At the same time in Bremen, and at other places in Germany, many insurances were covered with English companies. Did n.o.body see danger ahead?

All political misgivings of those days were silenced by the feeling, that to think of war was monstrous and to believe in war, an impossibility, on account of the highly developed economic relations which connected all countries.

Yet the war came! At the outbreak, many cargoes of cotton owned by Bremen merchants were afloat, and many "future" contracts were open in the Liverpool market. Later on, the cargoes were taken by the enemy, and the Liverpool contracts were liquidated, in accordance with a certain system, but without the consent of the other parties to the contract, and without reservation of their rights. Bremen had a considerable stock of cotton at the commencement of the war, consequently was in a position to supply the German cotton mills for a long time. If proof had been needed to show the advantage of having an important cotton market in Bremen, the war would have furnished it. The cotton trade was not satisfied to deal only with the existing supply, but did its very utmost to secure fresh imports, and was successful, by means and ways. .h.i.therto unknown, to bring considerable quant.i.ties of cotton into Germany, where it was of great service.

The Cotton Exchange does not trade, but under the war-conditions and in the knowledge of being the centre of commerce and industry, a courageous attempt was made. At the instigation of the Exchange, commerce and the spinners of Germany and Austria-Hungaria united, to give a bid for one million bales of cotton to the Americans. Cotton was no contraband of war, and America was neutral, so no difficulties seemed to be in the way of executing this plan. The buyer was prepared to pay the price which the Americans might demand, and the goods were to be paid in hard cash dollars. Yet the offer was not accepted, although America had sufficient reason to seek an outlet for the big crop it had grown, and that n.o.body wanted under the war conditions.

Politics were too mighty for the reasons of commerce!

After a while, all connections ceased with America. The Bremen Cotton Exchange and the cotton trade were at a stand-still. Now and then, the Exchange tried to place their establishment at the disposal of the trade in subst.i.tutes, but only with moderate success. To build up a lasting trade in subst.i.tutes was as impossible as it was to find a market for the subst.i.tutes, when once cotton began to appear again.

THE RE-OPENING OF THE MARKET.

After the armistice, the possibility presented itself again, of supplying the German cotton industry with raw material. The government, however, made certain stipulations under which the import might be carried on, but no hymn of praise can be sung about them.

Notwithstanding all difficulties, cotton found its way into the country, and when, finally, all government measures were cancelled, the legitimate business was restarted. All round the Bremen market, compet.i.tion had grown. Rotterdam made great exertions to push Bremen aside, even Copenhagen made similar endeavours. A few American firms, which were hostile to Germany, did their best to circ.u.mvent Bremen.

These efforts, however, were not crowned with success, Bremen regained its position. It has been shown that the natural development through many years, cannot be killed and artificially replaced. The manifold relations, started in peace-time, of personal or business character, showed their value. The economic life flows through a great network of channels, should these be artificially closed, they will re-open again of their own accord, as soon as the barriers have been removed. During the war, the German cotton industry either stood still, or worked only with a small percentage of its machinery. The government had husbanded the supply of cotton most carefully, so that, after an unexpectedly long war, a little was still left over. The mills which were running, displayed great a.s.siduity in procuring and utilizing subst.i.tutes for cotton. Paper, wood, cellulose, reed and nettle fibres, and other materials were tried, some were manufactured quite extensively. During the war they did good service, but in normal times, they cannot usurp the place of cotton. After surmounting many difficulties, the German cotton industry is once more in full swing, and with it, Bremen is again the important continental cotton market. The surrounding countries buy in Bremen as of old, though some outlets are still closed, owing to political and economic reasons.

During the last three years, before the war, the import of North American cotton to Bremen averaged 2 500 000 bales, during the season 1920/21, it reached 1 200 000 bales, and in 1921/22, 1 500 000 bales, the decline, against the former years, is caused, partly, by the disappearance of some outlets, and partly, by the shorter working day.

AMERICAN CROPS AND CONSUMPTION.

The activity of the "Bremen Cotton Exchange" depends, to a large extent, upon the import figures, and these again are under the influence of the various crops. In America, big crops alternate with small ones, the cause for this diversity is to be found in the climate conditions, and also in the ruling range of price. High prices stimulate an extensive planting and a careful cultivation of the ground, while low prices have the contrary effect. The crop figures from 1872-1914, were ascending, an occasional decline was made good later on.

The following figures will make this clear.

American crops:

1872 3 650 000 bales 1875 4 302 000 "

1878 4 745 050 "

1881 5 136 000 "

1884 5 477 000 "

1887 6 884 000 "

1891 8 940 000 "

1894 10 025 000 "

1898 10 985 000 "

1901 9 749 000 "

1904 13 697 000 "

1907 11 326 000 "

1910 11 966 000 "

1913 14 614 000 "

1914 16 738 000 "

1915 12 013 000 "

1916 12 664 000 "

1917 12 345 000 "

1918 12 817 000 "

1919 11 921 000 "

1920 13 711 000 "

1921 8 000 000[1]"

[1] estimated.

The reverse, which the production suffered since 1914, is remarkable, it is largely accounted for, by the want of artificial manure. German potash could not be obtained, and this was largely used by all cotton states, with the exception of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, which do not require that kind of fertilizer. In addition, the boll weevil has become a dreaded enemy of the cotton plant. The insect world produces quite an army of little fiends, that viciously attack and reduce the crop, many have disappeared, but the boll weevil is, at present, the arch-enemy; it is a small beetle which bores into the bolls to deposit its eggs there.

The following figures give the distribution of the American crops.

Export from America Taken by to American Percentage Great Continent, Total in Spinners of the crop Britain j.a.pan etc. thousands(in thousandsused by the in thousands of balesof bales of bales) U.S.A.

+ + + + + 1871/72 1 474 483 1 957 1 097 37 1874/75 1 833 841 2 674 1 201 31 1877/78 2 047 1 309 3 356 1 496 31 1880/81 2 832 1 733 4 565 1 938 29 1883/84 2 485 1 432 3 917 1 877 33 1886/87 2 704 1 741 4 445 2 088 32 1890/91 3 345 2 446 5 791 2 640 30 1893/94 2 861 2 371 5 232 2 291 30 1896/97 3 022 2 957 5 979 2 792 32 1900/01 3 050 3 488 6 538 3 547 34 1903/04

2 577

3 455

6 032

3 935

39 1906/07

3 750

4 614

8 364

5 005

37 1909/10

2 430

3 778

6 208

4 256

40 1912/13

3 604

5 176

8 780

5 389

38 1913/14

3 419

5 447

8 866

5 503

38 1914/15

3 798

4 571

8 369

6 088

40 1915/16

2 866

3 185

6 051

6 810

53 1916/17

2 888

3 076

5 764

6 914

55 1917/18

2 247

2 179

4 426

7 073

59 1918/19

2 621

3 025

5 646

5 460

48 1919/20

3 062

3 300

6 362

6 131

50 1920/21

1 583

3 771

5 353

4 914

48 1921/22

1 946

4 586

6 532

6 308

50

From these statistics the important lesson to be learnt, is, that America has surpa.s.sed all other countries in the growth of the cotton industry. Fifty years ago, and later, America used only about 30% of the crop for home consumption, while now, it requires more than half.

Equally remarkable is also the rapid growth of j.a.pan. For many decades after 1872, j.a.pan used hardly any American cotton, but in 1913, it took 465 000 bales; in 1920 780 000 bales; in 1921: 600 000 bales, and the estimate for 1922, is 800 000 bales. Besides this, a great many other descriptions are spun there. The use of East Indian cotton is even greater than that of American, and it reached two thirds of East India's consumption, thus placing j.a.pan, after America and England, in the third place of cotton consuming countries. During the first half year of 1921, it has even outdone America and England, because these two countries were in the throes of a crisis.

For many decades, England had almost a monopoly for providing Asia, and the rest of the world, with cotton goods, and required a corresponding amount of raw material, but now, it has lost that position. Grave concern is felt in England, as well as in the whole of Europe, regarding the future of the cotton industry, as it seems impossible to prevent a further expansion in America and j.a.pan, besides that, there is the growing menace of the boll weevil, which many people consider an unwelcome guest, that has come to stay.

Amongst the other cotton growing countries, Brazil perhaps, offers the best prospect, on account of the great interest taken there in the cultivation of the cotton plant, also, the Argentine gives rise to some hope.

BREMEN'S POSITION IN COMPARISON TO THE RIVAL MARKETS.

The following figures are intended to show how the imports of Bremen, and its consequent importance, have grown in comparison to the great rival markets of Liverpool and Havre:

The Import was to

Bremen

Liverpool

Havre

in 1000

in 1000

in 1000

bales

bales

bales + + + 1880/81

452

2 843

543 1883/84

422

2 470

465 1886/87

493

2 694

471 1890/91

911

2 314

525 1893/94

832

2 732

578 1896/97

1 213

2 683

672 1900/01

1 546

2 478

711 1903/04

1 757

2 081

690 1906/07

2 083

3 251

863 1909/10

1 760

2 089

948 1912/13

2 216

3 066

1 001 1913/14

2 619

2 903

1 021 1919/20

385

2 477

555 1920/21

1 279

1 525

583

There are not exact statistics before 1880, however, Bremen's yearly import will have been 2-300 000 bales. From small beginnings, quite a creditable result has been reached, that is worthy of some consideration.

History frequently chronicles the decay of some once flourishing commercial centre, and n.o.body knows to-day, the exact reason. Was it an opportunity missed? Of such, no records are kept in the book of time.

Should anybody compile a history of lost opportunities, it might easily require a bigger volume, than that needed for the story of opportunities taken at the crucial moment.