Nor can we expect that the whole world will stand still while Great Britain goes on every year adding to her strength. All that I do argue is that the shooting-up of the German infant does us on the whole no harm, and that there is nothing whatever in the figures of our trade to suggest that full-grown England is approaching senile decay.

"ICHABOD! OUR TRADE HAS GONE."

With this general prelude let us turn to what Mr. Williams has to say about the industries connected with iron and steel. He opens by referring to a visit of the English Iron and Steel Inst.i.tute to Dusseldorf in 1880:-

"And when the time of feasting and talk and sight-seeing was over, they returned to their native land, and there, in the fulness of time, they perused the fatuous reports of the British Iron Trade a.s.sociation, which bade them sleep on, sleep ever.

And they did as they were bid, until the other day, when they awoke to the fact that their trade was gone."

Another paragraph, headed "Ichabod!" begins:-

"And now all that is changed. The world's consumption (of iron) is greater than ever before. Yet our contribution in the years since 1882 has dropped at a rate well nigh unknown in the history of any trade in any land. From the 8,493,287 tons of 1882 pig iron has gone hustling down to the 7,364,745 tons of 1894."

Truly Mr. Williams is an ingenious person. By picking out the two years 1882 and 1894 he has cunningly obscured the fact that the production of pig iron, as of everything else, is subject to fluctuations, and that 1894, following worse years than itself, will in all probability be followed by better. Here are all the figures for the last fifteen years for which statistics are available, with the German figures set beside them:-

PRODUCTION OF PIG IRON.

In Millions of Tons.

--------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--- |1880|'81|'82|'83|'84|'85|'86|'87|'88|'89|'90|'91|'92|'93|'94 --------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--- In the United | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kingdom | 77|81|86|85|78|74|70|76|80|83|79|74|67|70|74 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | In Germany | 27|29|34|35|36|37|35|40|43|45|47|46|49|50|54 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---

These figures show that Germany has without doubt been rapidly gaining upon us, but it is the grossest exaggeration to say that our trade "has gone." As a matter of fact the output of pig iron in the United Kingdom rose to 79 million tons in 1895, and-according to the _Economist_ of November 11th-the estimated output for the present year (1896) is 87 million tons. If that figure is realised it will be the largest on record. So much for Mr. Williams's "Ichabods," and all his talk of departed glory!

COMPARISONS SAID TO BE "ODIOUS."

Turning to another paragraph headed "Odious Comparisons," we find-

"Under the general heading of iron, wrought and unwrought, the returns of our German exports exhibit a fall from 374,234 tons in 1890 to 295,510 tons in 1895.... Of unenumerated iron manufactures Germany supplied us with 219,841 cwt. in 1890 and with 311,904 cwt. in 1895."

Had Mr. Williams taken the trouble to convert the German figures from cwts. into tons he might have found this comparison somewhat less "odious." If we send Germany 295 thousand tons against 15 thousand tons she sends us, our iron manufacturers have not much to grumble at. But, as a matter of fact, no reliance can be placed upon these particular figures, because, as was pointed out in a previous chapter, much of the stuff that we get from Germany is credited in our Blue Books to Holland and Belgium, and these countries in the same way are debited with a large amount of British stuff that ultimately finds its way to Germany.

Exactly the same causes of error vitiate the figures published in the German Green Books, and it may safely be a.s.serted that there is no means of ascertaining with even approximate accuracy how much British iron and steel goes to Germany and how much German steel and iron comes to Great Britain. What can be ascertained is the total export of German iron from Germany to all parts of the world, and the total export of British iron from the United Kingdom to all parts of the world. This comparison, which is one of the best means of testing the relative progress of Great Britain and Germany, is worked out in the following table:-

IRON AND STEEL GOODS.

In Millions of Tons, Metrical and British.

[A Metrical Ton = 2,204 lb.; a British Ton = 2,240 lb.]

---------------------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--- |1884|'85|'86|'87|'88|'89|'90|'91|'92|'93|'94 ---------------------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--- Total Exports from Germany | | | | | | | | | | | (Metrical Measure) | 8| 7| 8| 8| 7| 7| 6| 8| 8| 8| 9 | | | | | | | | | | | Total Exports from Belgium | | | | | | | | | | | (Metrical Measure) | 4| 3| 3| 4| 4| 5| 4| 4| 4| 4| 4 | | | | | | | | | | | Total Exports from United | | | | | | | | | | | Kingdom (British Meas.) | 35|31|34|41|40|42|40|32|27|29|26 ---------------------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---

The above figures undoubtedly show a distinct decline in British exports of iron and steel, but they also show that that decline is not due to the increased invasion of our own or of neutral markets either by Germany or by Belgium. It is due to a decline which subsequent events have shown to be temporary in the world's demand for iron and steel goods. Even were this decline permanent, it would not be the fault of our manufacturers, nor-except as a device for reducing their personal expenditure-is there any reason why these gentlemen should sit in sackcloth and ashes.

STATISTICAL LEGERDEMAIN.

We pa.s.s to the subject of shipbuilding. Mr. Williams is good enough to admit that England is actually at the head of the shipbuilding trade.

But having made this admission, a pang of regret comes over him, and he tries to show that he is justified in putting even the British shipbuilding trade on his "black list." This is his argument:-

"In 1883 the total tonnage built in the United Kingdom was 892,216; in 1893 it reached only 584,674; in 1894, 'tis true, it rose to 669,492, but this is much below the total even of 1892, which was 801,548."

Again one can only admire Mr. Williams's ingenuity. Reading his paragraph, who would dream that between the years so skilfully selected for comparison the trade had experienced an enormous drop, and afterwards, to all intents and purposes, completely recovered itself; that then a smaller drop had occurred, and that this in turn was being fast made good? The best way to expose the above piece of statistical legerdemain is to give without further comment the whole of the figures for the past fifteen years. They will be found in the following table.

With figures such as these before him-and they must have been before him-it is astounding that Mr. Williams should have ventured to put shipbuilding on his black list.

FIFTEEN YEARS OF BRITISH SHIPBUILDING.

Total Output of British and Irish Yards.

In Thousands of Tons.

----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+---- 1881|1882|1883|1884|1885|1886|1887|1888|1889|1890|1891|1892|1893|1894|1895 ----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+---- 609| 783| 892| 588| 441| 331| 377| 574| 855| 813| 809| 801| 585| 669| 648 ----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----

These figures may be ill.u.s.trated as follows:-

[Ill.u.s.tration]

SHIPS BUILT FOR FOREIGNERS.

But his perverse ingenuity does not end with the paragraph quoted. A few lines lower down he says:-

"All these figures include vessels built for foreigners as well as those for home and the Colonies. The year in which we built most vessels for other nations was 1889, when we supplied them with 183,224 tons. The four following years showed a progressive decrease, getting down as low as 89,386 tons in 1893; and though 1894 showed an increase to 94,876 tons, their upward movement was slight compared with the successive decreases of the previous years."

The man who wrote these sentences obviously intended to convey to his readers the impression that our trade in the building of ships for foreign purchasers was a declining trade. That impression is false, and it is a little hard to understand how Mr. Williams could fail to see its falsity. The following figures show-what to most persons would be sufficiently obvious on reflection-that the tonnage of ships launched at our great yards varies largely from year to year. To pick out the year 1889, as Mr. Williams does, and declare that since that year there has been a decline in our sales to foreigners, is as grossly unfair as it would be, on the other hand, to pick out the year 1885, and say that since then there had been a fourfold increase.

SHIPS BUILT BY US FOR FOREIGNERS.

Thousands of Tons.

----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+---- 1881|1882|1883|1884|1885|1886|1887|1888|1889|1890|1891|1892|1893|1894|1895 ----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+---- 108| 116| 124| 91| 36| 39| 70| 91| 183| 161| 139| 109| 89| 95| 128 ----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----

WAR-SHIPS FOR FOREIGNERS.

The above figures include war-ships as well as merchant-ships built by us for foreigners, and, noting this fact, Mr. Williams is distressed to find what he calls a drop in our output of foreign war-ships. He writes:-

"Still more remarkable is the drop in our supply of foreign war-ships from 12,877 tons in 1874 to 2,483 in 1894."

What is even more remarkable still is the fact that Mr. Williams should have dared to put such a statement before the public, knowing, as he must have known, how completely it misrepresents the truth. I wonder what he would have said of me if I had spoken of the remarkable _growth_ in our output of foreign war-ships as evidenced by an _increase_ from 14 tons in 1876 to 4,152 tons in 1895! Yet this statement would have been every bit as justifiable as his own. The whole truth of the matter of course is, that such an industry as the construction of foreign war-ships must vary enormously from year to year, and a comparison between any two single years can prove nothing, except the folly or the _mala fides_ of the person who makes it. In order that the reader may see for himself the source from which Mr.

Williams drew his "remarkable" statement, I append all the figures since 1870:-

WAR VESSELS BUILT FOR FOREIGNERS.

------------------+------------------+------------------ Years. Tons. | Years. Tons. | Years. Tons.

------------------+------------------+------------------ 1870 970 | 1879 716 | 1888 1,899 1871 80 | 1880 385 | 1889 726 1872 40 | 1881 5,338 | 1890 3,437 1873 280 | 1882 447 | 1891 300 1874 12,877 | 1883 270 | 1892 2,792 1875 12,280 | 1884 2,339 | 1893 2,471 1876 14 | 1885 5,462 | 1894 2,483 1877 3,435 | 1886 840 | 1895 4,152 1878 2,482 | 1887 3,966 | ------------------+------------------+------------------

MACHINERY AND STEAM ENGINES.