An Inquiry into the Permanent Causes of the Decline and Fall of Powerful and Wealthy Nations.

by William Playfair.

P R E F A C E.

If it is of importance to study by what means a nation may acquire wealth and power, it is not less so to discover by what means wealth and power, when once acquired, may be preserved.

The latter inquiry is, perhaps, the more important of the two; for many nations have remained, during a long period, virtuous and happy, without rising to wealth or greatness; but there is no example of happiness or virtue residing amongst a fallen people.

In looking over the globe, if we fix our eyes on those places where wealth formerly was acc.u.mulated, and where commerce flourished, we see them, at the present day, peculiarly desolated and degraded.

From the borders of the Persian Gulf, to the sh.o.r.es of the Baltic Sea; from Babylon and Palmyra, Egypt, Greece, and Italy; to Spain and Portugal, and the whole circle of the Hanseatic League, we trace the same ruinous [end of page #iii] remains of ancient greatness, presenting a melancholy contrast with the poverty, indolence, and ignorance, of the present race of inhabitants, and an irresistible proof of the mutability of human affairs.

As in the hall, in which there has been a sumptuous banquet, we perceive the fragments of a feast now become a prey to beggars and banditti; if, in some instances, the spectacle is less wretched and disgusting; it is, because the banquet is not entirely over, and the guests have not all yet risen from the table.

From this almost universal picture, we learn that the greatness of nations is but of short duration. We learn, also, that the state of a fallen people is infinitely more wretched and miserable than that of those who have never risen from their original state of poverty. It is then well worth while to inquire into the causes of so terrible a reverse, that we may discover whether they are necessary, or only natural; and endeavour, if possible, to find the means by which prosperity may be lengthened out, and the period of humiliation procrastinated to a distant day.

Though the career of prosperity must necessarily have a termination amongst every people, yet there is some reason to think that the degradation, which naturally follows, and which has always followed hitherto, may be [end of page #iv] averted; whether it may be, or may not be so, is the subject of the following Inquiry; which, if it is of importance to any nation on earth, must be peculiarly so to England; a nation that has risen, both in commerce and power, so high above the natural level a.s.signed to it by its population and extent. A nation that rises still, but whose most earnest wish ought to be rather directed to preservation than extension; to defending itself against adversity rather than seeking still farther to augment its power.

With regard to the importance of the Inquiry, there cannot be two opinions; but, concerning its utility and success, opinions may be divided.

One of the most profound and ingenious writers of a late period, has made the following interesting observation on the prosperity of nations. {1}

"In all speculations upon men and human affairs, it is of no small moment to distinguish things of accident from permanent causes, and from effects that cannot be altered. I am not quite of the mind of those speculators, who seem a.s.sured, that necessarily, and, by the const.i.tution of things, all states have the same period of infancy, manhood, and decrepitude, that are found in the individuals who compose them. The objects which are

{1} Mr Burke.

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attempted to be forced into an a.n.a.logy are not founded in the same cla.s.ses of existence. Individuals are physical beings, subject to laws universal and invariable; but commonwealths are not physical, but moral essences. They are artificial combinations, and, in their proximate efficient cause, the arbitrary productions of the human mind.

We are not yet acquainted with the laws which necessarily influence that kind of work, made by that kind of agent. There is not, in the physical order, a distinct cause by which any of those fabrics must necessarily grow, flourish, and decay; nor, indeed, in my opinion, does the moral world produce any thing more determinate on that subject than what may serve as an amus.e.m.e.nt (liberal indeed, and ingenious, but still only an amus.e.m.e.nt) for speculative men. I doubt whether the history of mankind is yet complete enough, if ever it can be so, to furnish grounds for a sure theory on the internal causes, which necessarily affect the fortune of a state. I am far from denying the operation of such causes, but they are infinitely uncertain, and much more obscure, and much more difficult to trace than the foreign causes that tend to depress, and, sometimes, overwhelm society."

The writer who has thus expressed his scepticism on this sort of inquiry, speaks, at the same time, of the im-[end of page #vi] portance of distinguishing between accidental and permanent causes. He doubts whether the history of mankind is complete enough, or, if ever it can be so, to furnish grounds for a sure theory, on the internal causes which necessarily affect the fortune of a state. Thus, he not only admits the existence of permanent causes, but says, clearly, that it is from history they are discoverable, if ever their discovery can be accomplished. This is going as far as we could wish, and, as for the sure theory, we join issue with him in despairing of ever obtaining one that will deserve the name of sure.

The meaning of the word, sure, in this place, appears to be intended in a sense peculiarly strict. It seems to imply a theory, that would be certain in its application to those vicissitudes and fluctuations to which nations are liable, and not merely to explaining their rise and decline.

As to such fluctuations, it would be absurd to enter into any theory about them; they depend on particular combinations of circ.u.mstances, too infinite, in variety, to be imagined, or subjected to any general law, and of too momentary an operation to be foreseen.

That Mr. Burke alludes to such fluctuation is, however, evident, from what that fanciful but deeply-read man says, immediately after: "We have seen some states which have spent their vigour at their commencement. Some have [end of page #vii] blazed out in their glory a little before their extinction. The meridian of some has been the most splendid. Others, and they the greatest number, have fluctuated, and experienced, at different periods of their existence, a great variety of fortune. The death of a man at a critical juncture, his disgust, his retreat, his disgrace, have brought innumerable calamities on a whole nation; a common soldier, a child, a girl, at the door of an inn, have changed the face of fortune, and almost of nature."

From this it is abundantly evident, that the theory he wished for, but despaired of ever establishing, was one that would explain such effects; but the object of this Inquiry is totally different.

When the Romans were in their vigour, their city was besieged by the Gauls, and saved by an animal of proverbial stupidity; but this could not have happened when Attila was under the walls, and the energy of the citizens was gone. The taking or saving the city, in the first instance, would have been equally accidental, and the consequences of short duration; but, in the latter days, the fall of Rome was owing to _PERMANENT_ causes, and the effect has been without a remedy.

It is, then, only concerning the permanent causes, (that is to say, causes that are constantly acting, and produce [end of page #viii]

permanent effects) that we mean to inquire; and, even with regard to those, it is not expected to establish a theory that will be applicable, with certainty, to the preservation of a state, but, merely to establish one, which may serve as a safe guide on a subject, the importance of which is great, beyond calculation.

There remains but one other consideration in reply to this, and that is, whether states have, necessarily, by the const.i.tution and nature of things, the same periods of infancy, manhood, and decrepitude, that are found in the individuals that compose them? Mr. Burke thinks they have not; and, indeed, if they had, the following Inquiry would be of no sort of utility. It is of no importance to seek for means of preventing what must of necessity come to pa.s.s: but, if the word necessity is changed for tendency or propensity, then it becomes an Inquiry deserving attention, and, as all states have risen, flourished, and fallen, there can be no dispute with the regard to their tendency to do so.

However much, at first sight, Mr. Burke's opinion may appear to militate against such an Inquiry, when duly considered, it will be found, not only to approve of the end, but to point out the manner in which the inquiry ought to be conducted; namely, by consulting history. [end of page #ix]

If it is allowed that any practical advantage is to be derived from the history of the past, it can only be, in so far as it is applicable to the present and the future; and, if there is none, it is melancholy to reflect on the volumes that have been written without farther utility than to gratify idle curiosity. Are the true lessons of history, because they are never completely applicable to present affairs, to be ranked with the entertaining, but almost useless, pages of romance? No, certainly. Of the inheritance possessed by the present generation, the history of those that are gone before, is not the least valuable portion. Each reader now makes his application in his own way. It is an irregular application, but not an useless one; and it is, therefore, hoped, that an Inquiry, founded on a regular plan of comparison and a.n.a.logy, cannot but be of some utility.

But why do we treat that as hypothetical, of which there can be no doubt? Wherefore should there be two opinions concerning the utility of an inquiry into those mighty events, that have removed wealth and commerce from the Euphrates and the Nile, to the Thames and the Texel? Does not the sun rise, and do not the seasons return to the plains of Egypt, and the deserts of Syria, the same as they did three thousand years ago? Is not [end of page #x] inanimate nature the same now that it was then? Are the principles of vegetation altered? Or have the subordinate animals refused to obey the will of man, to a.s.sist him in his labour, or to serve him for his food? No; nature is not less bountiful, and man has more knowledge and more power than at any former period; but it is not the man of Syria, or of Egypt, that has more knowledge, or more power. There he has suffered his race to decay, and, along with himself, his works have degenerated.

When those countries were peopled with men, who were wise, prudent, industrious, and brave, their fields were fertile, and their cities magnificent; and wherever mankind have carried the same vigour, the same virtues, and the same character, nature has been found bountiful and obedient.

Throughout the whole of the earth, we see the same causes producing nearly the same effects; why then do we remain in doubt respecting their connection? Or, if under no doubt, wherefore do we not endeavour to trace their operation, that we may know how to preserve those advantages we are so eager to obtain?

If an Inquiry into the causes of the revolutions of nations is more imperfect and less satisfactory than when [end of page #xi] directed to those of individuals, and of single families, if, ever it should be rendered complete, its application will, at least, be more certain.

Nations are exempt from those accidental vicissitudes which derange the wisest of human plans upon a smaller scale. Number and magnitude reduce chances to certainty. The single and unforeseen cause that overwhelms a man in the midst of prosperity, never ruins a nation: unless it be ripe for ruin, a nation never falls; and when it does fall, accident has only the appearance of doing what, in reality, was already nearly accomplished.

There is no physical cause for the decline of nations, nature remains the same; and if the physical man has degenerated, it was before the authentic records of history. The men who built the most stupendous pyramid in Egypt, did not exceed in stature those who now live in mean hovels at its immense base. If there is any country in the world that proves the uniformity of nature, it is this very Egypt. Unlike to other countries, that owe their fertility to the ordinary succession of seasons, of which regular registers do not exist, and are never accurate, it depends on the overflowing of the waters of a single river.

The marks that indicated the rising of the Nile, in the days of the Pharaos, and of the Ptolemies, do the same [end of page #xii] at the present day, and are a guarantee for the future regularity of nature, by the undeniable certainty of it for the past.

By a singular propensity for preserving the bodies of the dead, the Egyptians have left records equally authentic, with regard to the structure of the human frame. {2} Here nothing is fabulous; and even the unintentional errors of language are impossible. We have neither to depend on the veracity nor the correctness of man. The proofs exhibited are visible and tangible; they are the object of the senses, and admit of no mistake.

But while that country exhibits the most authentic proofs of the uniform course of nature, it affords also the most evident examples of the degradation of the human mind. It is there we find the cause of those ruins that astonish, and the desolation that afflicts. Had men continued their exertions, the labour of their hands would not have fallen to decay.

It is in the exertion and conduct of man, and in the information of his mind, that we find the causes of the mutability of human affairs. We are about to trace

{2} Most part of the mummies found in Egypt, instead of being of a larger size, are considerably under the middle stature of the people of England. Those dead monuments of the human frame give the direct lie to Homer and all the traditions about men's degenerating in size and strength.

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them through an intricate labyrinth; but, in this, we are not without a guide.

The history of three thousand years, and of nations that have risen to wealth and power, in a great variety of situations, all terminating with a considerable degree of similarity, discovers the great outline of the causes that invigorate or degrade the human mind, and thereby raise or ruin states and empires. {3}

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{3} The utility of this Inquiry is considerably strengthened by the opinion of a writer of great information and first-rate abilities. {*}

An historical review of different forms under which human affairs have appeared in different ages and nations naturally suggests the question, whether the experience of former times may not now furnish some general principles to enlighten and direct the policy of future legislators? The discussion, however, to which the question leads is of singular difficulty; as it requires an accurate a.n.a.lysis of by far the most complicated cla.s.s of phenomena that can possibly engage our attention; those which result from the intricate and often from the imperceptible mechanism of political society--a subject of observation which seems at first view so little commensurate to our faculties, that it has been generally regarded with the same pa.s.sive emotions of wonder and submission with which, in the material world, we survey the effects produced by the mysterious and uncontroulable operation of phisical =sic= causes. It is fortunate that upon this, as on many other occasions, the difficulties which had long baffled the effort of solitary genius begin to appear less formidable to the united exertions of the race; and that, in proportion as the experience and the reasonings of different individuals are brought to bear on the objects, and are combined in such a manner as to ill.u.s.trate and to limit each other, the science of politics a.s.sumes more and more that systematical form which encourages and aids the labours of future inquirers.

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{*} Mr Dongald Stuart, whose name is well known and much honoured amongst men whose studies have led them to investigate these subjects: the intimate friend and biographer of Dr. Adam Smith.

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