"Ah, that is kind, friendly of you; but I must not detain you longer.

Good evening."

"What a friendly old fellow," reflected Bob, as he walked away. "Yes, I can quite imagine how one who is a Frenchman at heart would be treated in Alsace," and then he forgot all about him.

As day followed day, disquieting news came from the Near East. It seemed as though the cloud which at first was no bigger than a man's hand was covering the whole Eastern sky. Disturbing news flashed across the Channel, even while it was generally felt that the tragedy of Sarajevo could never lead to open hostilities. About the middle of July, as all the world knows, it was believed that Austria had accepted Servia's a.s.surance that her att.i.tude towards the greater Power was altogether pacific, and that full justice should be meted out to all who had partic.i.p.ated in the ghastly murders.

On July 24, even in the quiet neighbourhood of St. Ia, much apprehension was felt by many who took an interest in foreign affairs at the announcement of the presentation of the Austro-Hungarian Note to the Servian Government, especially when we read the terms of the Note.

They were so brutal, so arrogant, that we could not see how any self-respecting people could accept them. Still, we reflected that Servia who had only lately been much weakened and impoverished by her war with Turkey, might be humble.

On the morning of July 25, Admiral Tresize received a letter from a friend who lived in Vienna, which caused him to be greatly perturbed.

"Things look very black here," ran the letter. "Many of us, until a day or so ago, believed that the Austro-Servian difficulty would be amicably settled. As a matter of fact, I know that Austria was prepared to let Servia down rather lightly, but since then new forces have been at work. I am in a position to state that Germany, and by Germany I mean the Kaiser and the War Party generally, whose word is, of course, law in Germany, has instructed the Emperor Franz-Josef to send Servia practically impossible demands. What is in the Kaiser's mind it is impossible to say, but, as is very well known, he has been using almost superhuman efforts in perfecting his army and navy, until Germany has become the greatest fighting machine in the world. It is well known, too, that the Kaiser believes that Russia is so impoverished and enfeebled by her war with j.a.pan that she is no longer dangerous, and he considers France altogether unprepared for war. This being so, it is the general opinion in diplomatic circles that the Kaiser's purpose in sending Servia impossible conditions is intended to arouse hostilities. Only to-day I had a chat with a man who moves in the inner circle of things, and he told me, that if Russia defends Servia, as he hopes she will, and that if France prepares to help Russia, as she is sure to do, Austria can keep Servia and Russia busy, while Germany fulfils her long-held determination to bring France to her knees, and to make her practically her va.s.sal. No one believes that England would interfere. My own belief is that Germany is using the present occasion as the first step towards carrying out her long-cherished ambitions. When once she has conquered France, and commands her sea-board and her navy, she will then be able to crush England, which is her ultimate aim."

When the Admiral showed me this letter, I suppose I smiled incredulously, for the old man broke out into violent language.

"I believe it's true," he cried. "The Kaiser, for all his pious hypocrisies, is a war devil. He hates the thought that England should be such a World Power, while Germany is only an European Power."

"But the Kaiser isn't such a fool," I replied. "He knows England and her strength."

"Yes, but he's drunk with pride and arrogance. He thinks Germany is destined to rule the world."

A day or so later news came that Servia had consented to all Austria's demands with the exception of two points, and suggested that these should be submitted to the mediation of the Great Powers.

"Ah, that clears the air!" I thought; "nothing can be more reasonable."

Much to the surprise of every one, news came on July 26 that Austria regarded Servia's answer as unsatisfactory, and that the Austro-Hungarian Minister, with the Legation Staff, had left Belgrade on the previous day.

On July 28 I called at Mrs. Nancarrow's house, where I saw Bob reading the newspaper with a smile on his face.

"This is fine," he cried--"just fine. What a splendid fellow Sir Edward Grey is! It was he who proposed a Conference in the Turco-Balkan difficulty, and now it is he again who is going to settle this."

"I am afraid the Turco-Balkan Conference didn't help much," I replied.

"Ah, but this will. After all, what's the heart of the quarrel? The murder of the heir to the Austrian throne. A ghastly affair, I'll admit, but everything can be settled."

"Has Admiral Tresize mentioned a letter which he received from Vienna a day or two ago?" I asked.

"Yes," replied Bob, "but of course it was pure imagination. Do you know, I admire the Kaiser. He's a good man, a religious man."

I coughed.

"Of course it is easy to imagine a case against him," he went on lightly; "but it has no foundation in fact. I told the Admiral so. We had quite an argument about it, and I maintained that whatever the circ.u.mstances, England had no occasion to be dragged in, and that it would be criminal on the part of our statesmen if they allowed it.

Evidently Sir Edward Grey thinks the same. Of course you've seen that he has proposed a Conference. He has suggested that Germany, France, Italy, and Great Britain, who are not directly connected with the quarrel, should meet, and settle it."

"Will Germany accept?"

"Of course she will," replied Bob confidently, "we shall soon hear that the trouble is at an end."

"I hope you are right, but if the Kaiser holds the views expressed by the Admiral's friend, I very much doubt it," was my rejoinder.

When we read that a Russian Cabinet Council was held, and regarded the Austrian demands as an indirect challenge to Russia, and when we also read that Austria, without giving Servia any chance for further consideration, had declared war upon her, and seized certain of her vessels which happened to be on the Danube, we began to fear trouble, although even then we in St. Ia never seriously believed that England would be directly implicated in it.

I am stating these things here, not that they are not known to every one, but because they will help to make the story I am writing clearer to the reader, especially when it reaches the later stages.

Later the news came to us that there was partial Russian mobilisation along the Austrian frontier, and that as a consequence a Council was held in Berlin. Of course we knew nothing of what was said in that Council, but when we heard that Russia's partial mobilisation had become general, we began to shudder at the gradual darkening of the European sky.

As all the world knows now, Germany declared war on Russia on August 1, and I remember meeting Bob outside the St. Ia post office that day.

"You see you were not right about Germany," I said. "Both France and Italy accepted Sir Edward Grey's suggestion, and consented to join in a Conference; but Germany refused. Nothing can be plainer than that. If Germany had wanted peace, she could easily have secured it. Austria would not have opposed her in any case, but she would not even join in a Conference in order to secure peace."

Bob shook his head. "You know the reason Germany gave for refusing,"

he said.

"About the most arrogant, but the most characteristic possible. Fancy saying that Austria as a Great Power could not think of allowing mediation as though she were a small Balkan state."

"Yes, it's terrible enough," replied Bob. "But, thank heaven, we are not likely to be dragged into it."

"I hope and pray not," I replied.

"Why? Do you think it possible?" he cried.

"Anything is possible. You've seen that Germany has invaded Luxemburg.

As you know, Luxemburg is a small neutral state, and has been promised the protection of the Powers. Germany was a party to this promise, and yet she has violated everything."

"That's only hearsay," was his reply.

"It is more than hearsay," I answered; but Bob did not appear to be convinced.

"I am almost glad dear old father is dead," he went on presently. "The Boer War nearly broke his heart, while this business threatens to be so ghastly, that it would have driven him mad. It is simply h.e.l.lish."

After this we almost feared to open our newspapers, and events followed so rapidly that we were unable to keep count of them.

Never shall I forget the look on Admiral Tresize's face when he read Sir Edward Grey's momentous speech. His ruddy face became almost pale, and his hands trembled.

"Sir Edward has done all mortal man can do," he declared. "Whose ever hands are clean of this b.l.o.o.d.y business, his are. He has simply laboured night and day for peace."

"Seemingly all in vain," was my reply.

"I have been informed on unimpeachable authority that the Kaiser, in spite of his pious harangues, has been preparing for this, planning for this, for years."

"Still there is no necessity for us to be dragged in," I urged.

"Of course there is the _Entente_ between ourselves and France," he replied. "France will be bound to help Russia on account of their alliance, and the question will naturally arise as to whether we can stand aside while the German fleet bombards France's sh.o.r.es and while German armies cross her frontier."

"But think of war, Admiral."

"Yes, G.o.d knows I think of it. I didn't sleep last night for thinking of it. I know what war is, know of its b.l.o.o.d.y horrors. War is h.e.l.l, I know that; but I would rather that my country should go through h.e.l.l, than allow a Power like Germany to crush her."