3. The aggravation of the agricultural and industrial crises by the gross errors in the conclusion of treaties of commerce and the establishment of transit tariffs.

4. The war on the clergy, foreshadowing the separation of Church and State.

To these particular reasons must be added the general dissatisfaction with an administration at once weak and corrupt, which is not in accord with those instincts which a thousand years of monarchy have impressed on our manners and tone of thought.

The moderate Republicans have been beaten because they allied themselves with the Radicals, and because they themselves have not shown the governing qualities which could gain the confidence of the country. If the check has not been still greater, it is because the country has a horror of all change; because the interest of the Government is exceedingly strong; because the electors do not care to vote for the opposition candidate, who cannot do anything for them; and lastly, because, at the second _tour de scrutin_, the Government, in the most shameless manner, brought pressure to bear on all who are directly or indirectly dependent on it, the number of whom is very great.

We have then two hundred Conservatives deputies, who represent three and a half millions of electors. Three-fourths of these are Monarchists more or less avowed; one-fourth represents the Bonapartist element, and among these last are many with whom I have well-established personal relations. It is not, however, the part of this large minority to set forth any opinions as to the form of the Government, nor even to cause obstruction; still less to ally itself with the Radicals for the vain satisfaction of overturning the Ministry. Its aim must always be to promote the pa.s.sing of Conservative laws, and by every possible means to oppose such Radical measures as will be proposed to the Chamber. It is for this that it has been elected. If it fulfils its task aright, when the dissolution comes--and this cannot be far off--it will reap the fruits of its policy. It will have merited the country's confidence, which the Radicals will have lost; and, notwithstanding the pressure, perhaps even the violence of the Government, the current of public opinion will be so strong that it will send a Conservative majority to the Palais Bourbon. Under the influence of this current we may hope to see the collective or individual conversion of the moderate Republicans, which must lead to the reconstruction of the Conservative party and to placing the direction of it in the hands of the Monarchists. For, though by temperament these moderate Republicans ought to be the last to come to us, the Radical danger must bring them; they are bound to come; their place is marked in our ranks. They will never go to Bonapartism: on the contrary, they will one day enable us to rid ourselves of the _intransigeunt_ element which forms a disturbing minority in the party.

This will be the work of to-morrow. To-day, the princ.i.p.al task which I recommend to my friends is the reconst.i.tution, or rather the creation, of the 'active list' of the Conservative array. We have the model in Belgium.

People are beginning to understand that the Conservatives cannot remain for ever on the sufferance of the Government. No Government shall he stable but that which they can support. For this they must form a compact and well-organised party. Encouraged by the results of the elections, every one has set to work with new ardour. My only trouble at present is the utter inexperience of the Conservative minority. It is made up of men almost all of whom are new to Parliament, are unacquainted with each other, and as yet are without a leader. I reckon, however, that such blunders as it may commit will be balanced and amended by those of its opponents.

Je tennine sur cette pensee consolante, et je vous prie de me croire.

Votre bien affectionne,

PHILIPPE COMTE DE PARIS.

It is interesting to compare with this another view of the French elections and of the probable course of events, taken from a very different standpoint.

_From the Due de Broglie_

8 _novembre_.--Vous avez vu le resultat de nos elections, qui ont ete plus heureuses pour la cause generale du parti conservateur que pour ce qui me regarde particulierement. Si nous ne vivions pas dans un temps ou toutes les previsions sont trompees par une certaine inertie generale qui amort.i.t toutes les pa.s.sions et ralent.i.t le cours naturel des evenements, je croirais qu'une crise violente est a.s.sez prochaine, les elements extremes se trouvant reums et rapproches dans l'a.s.semblee nouvelle, de maniere a former un melange explosible comme la chimie redoute d'en amener. De part ni d'autre, d'ailleurs, il n'y a d'homme en etat de diriger les evenements; ils iront done probablement tout seuls, commes des chevaux qui n'ont pas de cocher, ce qui est le moyen a peu pres sur d'aller dans le fosse.

CHAPTER XXII

RETIREMENT

Christmas and the early days of the New Year were pa.s.sed at Foxholes. On January 15th the Reeves returned to Rutland Gate. Parliament met on the 21st, and, as had been foreseen, the Government was defeated on an amendment to the Address. Lord Salisbury's resignation was announced on February 1st, and, on the 3rd, Mr. Gladstone's Cabinet was formed, Sir William Harcourt being Chancellor of the Exchequer, Lord Rosebery Foreign Secretary, and Mr. John Morley Secretary for Ireland. Sir Henry James, now Lord James of Hereford, declined the office of Lord Chancellor; Lord Hartington, the present Duke of Devonshire, declined office of any sort in a Ministry whose policy, as yet but dimly shown, was generally understood to be on the lines of advanced Radicalism. For his part, Reeve abhorred Radicalism. He had never approved of Gladstone as a politician, and now less than ever. He looked on him as a danger to the Empire, to be fought against, to be resisted, to be crushed. Nor was he singular in this. It is customary to speak of the extraordinary influence which Gladstone exercised. It was this influence, directed by sentiment or by vanity, which const.i.tuted the danger. There were many who believed the country to be on the eve of a violent, perhaps a sanguinary, revolution, fomented and abetted by Mr. Gladstone; and this belief was strengthened when, on February 8th, an East-end mob, meeting in Trafalgar Square, was allowed, without opposition, to march by Pall Mall, St. James' Street and Piccadilly, to Hyde Park, breaking the windows and plundering the shops on the way. When to this supposed revolutionary tendency of the new Ministry was added their avowed intention to bring in a measure for the pacification of Ireland, which--in the absence of details--was believed to mean the disintegration of the kingdom, the feeling of alarm, which must be very well remembered by many who read these pages, can be easily understood.

_From Lord Ebury_ [Footnote: Lord Ebury died at the age of 92, in 1893.]

Moor Park, January 4th, 1886.

Dear Reeve,--Allow me to wish you and Mrs. Reeve a happy New Year, and to say how much I have been interested in the second part of our common friend's Memoirs, which--if you care to know it--pleased me more than the first; but the most characteristic pa.s.sage of the writer, and which made me laugh aloud, is the three pages in which he vents all his wrath against the public for their approbation of Lady Blessington as an auth.o.r.ess, and the pedestal upon which they placed her. I was glad to read the editor's note, which completed the page. When once he got into that sort of mood, and perhaps was influenced by a touch of gout, and let himself go, it was very funny to listen to him; and really he was a good-natured man. I wonder what he would have said of Parnell and his ragged regiment, and the G. O.

M.[Footnote: As even in twelve years the name has become quite obsolete, it may be as well to note that Mr. Gladstone was generally designated by these letters, said by his friends and admirers to stand for Grand Old Man.] as he now appears. What in the world are we to do? The 'Times' is working most patriotically; but why, in the world, did it or he not find out earlier what the G. O. M. really was and is?...

With my best regards to Mrs. Reeve,

I remain, yours very truly,

EBURY.

_From the Comte de Paris_

_8 janvier_.--Je vous remercie bien sincerement des bons voeux que vous m'adressez pour la nouvelle aimee. Comme vous le dites fort bien, il y a des bonheurs que la politique ne peut pas empoisonner, et ce sont les plus solides.

L'annee 1886, je le crois comme vous, nous reserve des surprises plus dramatiques que celle don't nous venons de voir la fin. En France, ce renouvellement de l'annee nous donne un President renomme mais non rajeuni, un Ministere reconst.i.tue mais non raffermi ... En Angleterre, Gladstone et les Irlandais vous auront pour une fois rendu service s'ils forcent a s'unir les conservateurs, aujourd'hui separes par d'anciennes divisions en whigs et en tories. Ce jour-la vous pourrez de nonveau avoir un gouvcrnement fort et national.

_From Lord Ebury_

_February 13th_--I cannot recollect anything about Charles Greville's pamphlet on Ireland, though I imagine I must have read it at the time. Can one get it now to look at it? or are things so much changed by the march of events since that its interest has pa.s.sed away? I re-read Gustave de Beaumont's marvellous work, with which no doubt you are acquainted.

I confess it rather staggered me when it first came out; and how the prophecies it contained are accomplished, almost to the letter! I remember calling the old Duke's attention to it; especially to that strange phrase-speaking of the then Irish landowners--'C'est une mauvaise aristocratic; il faut la detruire.' Was it ever reviewed in the 'Edinburgh'?

When will this horrible Government be overthrown?

_To Mr. T. Norton Longman_

_Rutland Gate, March 29th_--From what I learned yesterday as to the probable course of proceeding in the House of Commons, I am strongly of opinion that it will be necessary to accelerate the publication of the 'Review' by two days, instead of postponing it, as we had proposed to do.

The 'Review' would be of use in the debate which will then be going on, and will probably be noticed; whereas, after the division on leave to bring in the Bill, it would be less opportune. The article on Ireland is complete, and it would be premature to speculate on the details of an unknown measure.

The 'Review' was published on April 13th, and, as Reeve had expected, the article on 'England's Duty to Ireland' was in everyone's mouth. It was a powerful appeal to the Liberals, as distinct from the Gladstonians, which may even now be read with advantage as a lucid exposition of the principles of the Union.

_From Lord Ebury_

_April 14th_.--Thank you for so speedily answering my question: also for pointing my attention to the concluding article of the 'Edinburgh'--just published--written by yourself. I have just finished its perusal, and am very much pleased with it. No doubt you have had a certain advantage in seeing what has been already said upon this insane proposition of Gladstone's; but I have hitherto seen nothing which so completely exposes the dangers that threaten us, and gives so much historical information to guide opinion upon the subject; and you have put forward a subject which to my astonishment has not (or scarcely) been noticed at all. I mean the danger to the throne of England. I see you dismiss with scarcely a remark--which, indeed, in your province, would have been injudicious--the responsibility of those, our grandees--I won't mention names--who have a.s.sisted in giving the G. O. M. power to do the almost irreparable mischief he has perpetrated.

The Journal here has:--

_April 17th_.--To Foxholes. On the 29th, Unionist meeting at Christchurch; Lord Malmesbury in the chair. I read an address [which was printed and circulated as a leaflet]. This was one of the first Unionist meetings in England.

_May 3rd_.--To Portsmouth, on a visit to Captain Bridge, on board the 'Colossus.'

On May 10th Gladstone, in moving the second reading of his 'Home Rule'

Bill, seemed to accept the truth of the maxim that 'Speech is given to man to conceal his thoughts,' and led someone--commonly believed to be Mr.

Labouchere, who made no attempt to hide his own opinions--to say, 'How is it possible to play with an old sinner who has got an ace up each sleeve, and says G.o.d Almighty put them there?' What Gladstone wanted to do was, in fact, never exactly known; all that could be made out was that he was prepared to grant whatever the Irish Nationalist party demanded. It was for Mr. Parnell to speak; for him to obey. Such an att.i.tude was revolting to a very great many of the Liberal party. They maintained--they rightly maintained--that the name 'Liberal' belonged to principles, not to men; and that those who sacrificed their principles to follow the lead of one man, even of Gladstone's eminence, ceased to be Liberals, and could only be called Gladstonians. The Bill was discussed for many days, and on June 7th it was negatived by the House of Commons in the fullest division ever known; the numbers being:

_Against the Bill. For the Bill._

Conservatives. . . . 250 Gladstonians. . . . 230 Liberals. . . . . . 93 Nationalists. . . . 83 ___ ___ 343 313

Majority against the Bill, 30.

Reeve was triumphant, and wrote to Mr. T. Norton Longman the next day, 'What a triumphant division! What a defeat for the G. O. M.! Even he must believe this. I think his colleagues will hardly agree to dissolve. If they do, they will be annihilated.'

They did, and they were. The General Election held in July fully ratified the vote of the House on June 7th, and left the Gladstonians and Parnellites combined in a minority of 115.

_To Mr. T. Norton Longman_

_C. O., June 23rd_.--Sir Francis Doyle's Epilogue [Footnote: The last chapter of Doyle's _Reminiscences and Opinions_ (8vo. 1886). It is more than 'invective;' it contains much sound argument and admirable ill.u.s.tration.] is a powerful piece of invective; but it is essentially addressed to Gladstone's public career and conduct, and if he likes to publish it, I see no objection. Doyle was at Eton with Gladstone, and is one of his oldest and most intimate friends--or rather, _was so_. What he has written is not stronger than what George Anthony Denison has published on Gladstone, he too being a friend of forty years. I do not remember another instance in which a man's best and earliest friends have turned upon him, to unmask him, and that without any motive of personal resentment. It is the n.o.ble motive which led Brutus to strike Caesar.

If this is to appear, it should be published _immediately_, as it relates to the affairs of the day.

_C. O., July 21st_.--I think Gladstone has fulfilled all my predictions and completed the ruin of the Liberal party and his own. The net result is that he has brought in the Tories for several years.