When we shall have succeeded in dispersing the prejudices existing on either side; when we shall have learnt to appreciate the virtues of the yellow race, and they shall have recognized the n.o.bler ideals which animate us; then the two races, instead of opposing one another in the battle-field, will, let us hope, offer one another the hand of good fellowship, and the banner on the one side of the united brotherhood will bear as a device, "Mutual Aid and Help" instead of "Aggression and Oppression"; and on the other side, "Friendship and Confidence" instead of "Violence and Mistrust."

Let us hope that the Chinese will benefit, not only by our military equipments and material achievements, but that they will also share our spiritual supremacy, and above all learn or recognize the fundamental principles--the basis of all true civilization, the Christian virtues of Faith, Hope, and Charity. XIV

CONCLUSION

The foregoing chapters were written on the eve of the war. Since that time the situation is, to some degree, altered, though not so essentially as might be imagined; and I even believe the general feeling to be, to a certain extent, the same today as it was yesterday. Neither party is entirely satisfied; the interests and aims of neither the one nor the other seem to have been fully realized, and both appear to have lost more than they have gained in the lengthy, costly, and cruel war.

On the one side, the Russians have had to renounce the most valuable provinces of what they regarded as their former acquisitions, whilst the j.a.panese have not been compensated, either by the definite annexation of Korea or of Manchuria. The political situation is fundamentally identical with that of yesterday, or rather with that of a decade ago.

The Peace of Portsmouth does not alter the _status quo_ much from what it was after the Treaty of Simonosaki, still less from what it was before the Alliance of Chifu.

The problem of the domination of Eastern Asia is not solved; the two great races, the white and the yellow, with their conflicting interests, are striving for the mastery as before.

The Peace of Portsmouth might more justly be called an armistice. A truce has been concluded, and we hope that this truce may be of longer duration than the last. And, above all, let us hope that it may really tend to the well-being of the countries interested, and of cultural and moral advantage for the nations concerned.

Though the Peace of Portsmouth may be unimportant, the moral influence of its articles is all the more real from a purely material point of view. j.a.pan, in spite of her admirable self-restraint, has become one of the Great Powers, and she shows her strength, her security, and her power, more especially by her moderation and self-control. The renunciation of certain points and the ratification of many conditions required, undoubtedly, a self-control and a political foresight which this young nation has lately proved she possesses. After an unexpected succession of brilliant victories--when the fleet of her rival had been annihilated, the forts of Port Arthur laid in ruins, the hostile armies forced back step by step--it was hardly credible that Nippon would refrain from insisting upon complete evacuation of Manchuria, annexation of Saghalien, and at least a certain amount of war indemnity.

Was it not natural that Count Witte should inform his depressed countrymen with satisfaction, that Russia is still as much a Great Power in the Far East as she was before? Was it not pardonable if this piece of news, and many others of a similar kind with regard to Russia's diplomatic acquisitions, gave rise to tumult in the streets of Tokio, and, at any rate among the lower cla.s.ses of j.a.pan, to loud expressions of dissatisfaction? Such spontaneous manifestations of a people's feelings are easily understood and cannot be taken amiss; but these people, in spite of their dissension, will daily recognize more and more what uncommon astuteness has been displayed by the envoys of the nation, in their acceptance of the present and, to some extent, unsatisfactory terms of peace.

Time will prove what were the motives which chiefly determined the j.a.panese Government to desist from further prosecution of the war.

Certainly the role played by the leading Powers must have been an important one. It seemed increasingly doubtful if the forms of future loans would ensure the same interest for the groups concerned.

Anglo-American credit, which j.a.pan apparently possessed to an unlimited extent at the outbreak of the war, became circ.u.mspect and cautious to a degree. Further financial undertakings, which, in consequence of the unexpected and decisive defeat of Russia, might have resulted in insolvency, could of course not be agreeable to the French and Continental stockholders.

[Ill.u.s.tration: COUNT WITTE To face page 384]

From an international point of view it was desired that the situation, at any rate as far as appearances went, should remain unchanged. What was aimed at was equilibrium, not preponderance. Opinions which made themselves heard, not only in Central Europe, but also in the English and American newspapers, showed more and more plainly how critical the situation would be if j.a.pan alone possessed undisputed paramount power in Eastern Asia. The leading papers, which at first had been so enthusiastic and described with such unbounded admiration j.a.pan's gallant battles and unexpected victories, grew gradually reserved as the question of how far j.a.pan's ambitions might one day extend, became doubtful.

Economic acquisitions were feared even more than the actual strategic conquests. Already a portion of the commerce of the Far East has left European hands and fallen to the share of j.a.pan, and evidently this will more and more be the case. The vicinity of the country, the cheap rate of wages, the simplicity of social conditions and those of labour, even at the present day, all contribute to give j.a.pan the advantage in the compet.i.tion. What their Government chiefly covet, at any rate just now, are new commercial spheres--safe markets--to profit by the great wealth of neighbouring states. By adroit commercial treaties with China, exploitation of the mineral riches of Manchuria and the Korean mines, j.a.pan may, in a very short time, not only make good her war expenditure, but consolidate the economical condition of the empire and increase the general well-being.

From a political point of view, it can no longer be denied that the Pacific Ocean will be, at least on the eastern half, dominated by the j.a.panese fleet. In short, it is this point which is the essential one.

As I have already stated, j.a.pan's schemes of conquest, if she had any, would be directed less towards the north than towards the south. Siberia never seems to have had a great attraction for her, and I believe that even Manchuria, together with the Amur Provinces, leaves her indifferent. She intends to let the original possessor, China, reconquer it one day. Her far-seeing policy seems to be governed by the a.s.sumption that the Eastern Asiatic continent belongs to her neighbours, the Chinese. For herself, she wants to secure the position of a great Sea Power. Her island home, and more especially her sea-faring population, tend to guide her in this direction. As factors to this end they have not only subjective competency, but the greatest objective possibilities. The Island Empire of the Pacific is still, to a great extent, with all her wealth, a _terra incognita_. We may say the same of the South Sea Islands, which are mostly only under the nominal dominion of the white races. Honolulu and the Philippines might one day be included in the dominions of this newly-arisen great Power; and her sphere of action will possibly create a yet larger circle.

Australasia, even, might become the ultimate aim of j.a.panese Imperialism and commercialism. The climatic conditions of the northern parts are such that Europeans find it difficult to settle there, and in the limitless sugar and coffee plantations the employment of white labour has always been unsuccessful, in spite of every effort. The number of the white inhabitants is still very small, although the continent was first occupied over a hundred years ago. The original native tribes have slowly died out; but the new settlers, over this whole extent of enormous territory, do not number as many as the population of London.

Spa.r.s.ely peopled, she stands there isolated and unfortified, defenceless, so to speak, in the midst of the sea.

The actual guarantee for her independence is offered by the circ.u.mstance that she forms part of the British Empire. This dominion is of course nominal; still, it is enough, at any rate at present, to protect the continent from foreign attack. But it is not hard to foresee what would happen to Australia, with the adjacent islands, Tasmania and New Zealand, should she be severed from Great Britain. Indeed, it is much to be feared that if ever the present alliance between England and j.a.pan were to change into hostility, the former pupils and friends might be obliged to turn their arms against their instructors and allies.

Now, however, a truce has been declared in Eastern Asia. The Peace of Portsmouth has been concluded, and the consequences of this recent event will undoubtedly be greater than the bloodiest battles of the past few months, although it occasioned less noise. I must acknowledge that I am somewhat astonished that the world which welcomed with such jubilation j.a.pan's victories at sea, seems to fail to understand her greatness in the field of diplomacy. Yet nothing was harder than to find such a solution of the various antagonistic problems as should ensure a free path for progress in the future. After such glorious battles, after the unchecked progress of an army intoxicated with success, it must have been very hard to halt, and to utilize this interlude for future strengthening and eventual expansion. Nothing could really have hindered the march to Harbin or to the Baikal district. Even the occupation of Vladivostok was merely a question of time. But, as has already been stated, it was not to j.a.pan's interest to press northwards, and still less to carry the day by sowing the seeds of a yet greater hatred, and exciting the conquered country to a policy of revenge.

That, probably, was the reason why the j.a.panese gave up the war indemnity, and hope to refund it themselves from the agricultural wealth of the strip of land annexed, instead of from the Russian coffers. j.a.pan did not desire either to increase the animosity of her enemy or to lose the sympathy of her allies. Above all, she abstained from rousing hostility and jealousy on too many sides before the definite attainment of her goal.

The self-command evinced by the j.a.panese is the greatest feature that, in the whole course of her history, we have had occasion to admire, it is even greater than her bravery, and this same attribute was manifested in a remarkable manner during the entire war. In the battles, whether in their dealings with prisoners and wounded, in slight advantages, or in important victories, they strove to manifest their moderation, self-control, and humanity.

Komura's task was no easier than Oyama's or Togo's. To accept and carry into execution the peace, in its present form, must have been all the more distasteful in that the whole country was against it and expressed its opinion in an exceedingly hostile manner.

Yet, had the populace been more deliberate in its judgment, they must have appreciated the diplomacy of their statesmen no less than the strategy of their generals. They may, moreover, rest a.s.sured that the present peace, though it may appear somewhat unjust to them, will prove to be of as great benefit and of as sure advantage as if better terms had been arranged. Was it not so, in the case of past victorious wars, especially as regards the terms of peace concluded with little glory and renown at Simonosaki and Chifu, which yet contributed so much to heighten the army's thirst for combat, and to develop the patriotism of the nation? Undoubtedly j.a.pan is reckoning upon future eventualities and struggles in which she will demand yet more courage from her army and even greater enthusiasm from her sons.

But for the moment, at least, we may look with confidence to the Peace, and hope that Nippon, which has won the admiration of the whole world in the late war, will show herself not less capable in time of peace. May she a.s.sist the countries that have come within her sphere--especially Korea--to a higher development! May she improve the conditions of agriculture, industry, as well as of culture, and truly strengthen all those moral, ethical, and spiritual aspirations which alone make for the positive weal of mankind! In one word--may the Land of the Rising Sun earnestly strive to cast rays of light on Eastern Asia!